How recovery from COVID-19's impact on energy demand could help meet
climate targets

Date:
October 12, 2021
Source:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Summary:
The pandemic-related drop in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
was likely the largest on record in a single year, but how our
recovery might affect future emissions is less clear. New modeling
examines alternative scenarios and how they could impact climate
mitigation targets.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
The pandemic-related drop in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 was likely
the largest on record in a single year, but how our recovery might
affect future emissions is less clear. New modeling examines alternative scenarios and how they could impact climate mitigation targets.


==========================================================================
A group of IIASA researchers in the Energy, Climate, and Environment
Program performed a bottom-up assessment of changes in energy-related
demand and estimated how new patterns of travel, work, consumption,
and production might reduce or increase climate mitigation challenges.

"Many people have been wondering what the large changes in societies
that came with the COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdowns mean for climate change," says Jarmo Kikstra, lead author of the study. "If societies
are just moving back to old practices, the answer is that there is
virtually no effect. However, if some of the changes in energy-use
practices persist, climate mitigation challenges will be affected."
The research, published in Nature Energy, shows that a low energy demand recovery could reduce a hypothetical tax on all carbon emissions by 19%
for a scenario that is on track for reaching the Paris Agreement's goal
of limiting global warming to 1.5DEGC. This scenario would also lower
energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and soften the
pressure to quickly implement renewable energy technologies.

"Our key finding is that missing the opportunity to retain low-energy
practices in lifestyle and business would lead to a more difficult energy transition. Our economic recovery and climate mitigation policies should
embed strategies to retain the low energy demand practices observed
during the pandemic, such as low-carbon mobility in cities and increased tele-conferencing," says coauthor Adriano Vinca.

According to the authors, this is especially true when it comes to transportation. In particular, the different recovery narratives of transportation energy demand strongly influence CO2 emission trends.



==========================================================================
The researchers examined four different scenarios, each with a consistent
set of assumptions about changes in energy demand in buildings, transport,
and industry sectors as the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the "restore" scenario, the use of private vehicles, as well as the intensity of air transport are restored to pre-pandemic levels. The
same holds for industrial activities and supply chains, as well as our
working practices and domestic life.

In the "self-reliance" scenario, concerns about health risks linger
longer and individuals shift towards private transport while abandoning
forms of crowded transport. Office and living space increase to carry
on social distancing. In addition, demand for steel is especially strong
due to reinvigorated car manufacturing and building construction.

In the "smart use" scenario, people adapt better to working from home and
there is a moderate shift to teleworking. This leads to home space being
used more intensively, and a slight reduction in motorized transportation growth, compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, a surge in online
retailing increases overall road freight transportation.

In the last scenario, which the researchers call "green push," the
highest energy reductions are achieved by changes in space reallocation
and reduced private transport. For instance, walking or cycling replaces
some of the trips that were previously done by car, and empty offices
are repurposed.

The researchers conclude that compared to a "green push" scenario, the "restore" scenario would increase the energy investments required to meet
a 1.5DEGC climate target by about 9% or $1.8 trillion. This difference
is in part due to the need to boost the pace of transport electrification
and the upscaling of solar and wind in the "restore" scenario.

"The bottom line is that the "green push" scenario, which supports working
from home and teleconferencing to reduce flying and commuting can have
strongly beneficial outcomes for climate mitigation challenges," says
IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program Director and coauthor,
Keywan Riahi.

The authors further add that it is important to design holistic policies, including the repurposing of office space and the increased use of
walking or cycling within cities or public transport when commuting.

As coauthor Charlie Wilson, also of the University of East Anglia,
concludes, "limiting global warming to 1.5DEGC will be exceptionally
hard. A tiny silver lining to the COVID-19 cloud is that the 1.5DEGC
target becomes that bit more achievable if we can selectively sustain
some of the lower-carbon practices forced upon us by lockdowns." ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by International_Institute_for_Applied_Systems_Analysis.

Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Jarmo S. Kikstra, Adriano Vinca, Francesco Lovat, Benigna Boza-Kiss,
Bas
van Ruijven, Charlie Wilson, Joeri Rogelj, Behnam Zakeri, Oliver
Fricko, Keywan Riahi. Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent
COVID-19- related energy demand changes. Nature Energy, 2021; DOI:
10.1038/s41560- 021-00904-8 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211012130727.htm

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