Early warning signals could help monitor disease outbreaks

Date:
December 8, 2021
Source:
University of Bristol
Summary:
New research suggests early warning signals (EWSs) could help in
the monitoring of disease outbreaks, such as COVID-19. The study
found warnings could be detected weeks earlier than any rapid
increase in cases. The findings could help governments and policy
makers improve the accuracy of their decisions and allow timely
interventions if needed.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
New research suggests early warning signals (EWSs) could help in the
monitoring of disease outbreaks, such as COVID-19. The study, led by the University of Bristol, found warnings could be detected weeks earlier
than any rapid increase in cases. The findings could help governments
and policy makers improve the accuracy of their decisions and allow
timely interventions if needed.


========================================================================== Using a novel, sequential analysis combined with daily COVID-19 case
data across 24 countries, the research, published today [8 December] in BiologyLetters,suggests EWSs can predict COVID-19 waves. The researchers
found that warnings were regularly detectable prior to exponential cases changes. but the reliability of these signals depended on the amount of
time between successive waves of infection and the mathematical likelihood
of a critical transition, Consequently, EWSs showed highest accuracy for
waves that experienced a suppressed R number over a long period before
the outbreak.

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has shown, being able to identify rapid increases in cases before they occur is important for people to modify
their behaviours, and to inform government actions.

Duncan O'Brien in Bristol's School of Biological Sciences said: "We've
always been aware that any technique that's able to predict the appearance
of disease would be useful in protecting human health. This has never been
more apparent with the global COVID-19 pandemic and the many discussions
around when governments should put interventions in place.

"Our research found that hotly debated early warning signals were most
reliable before the second COVID-19 wave that was experienced by many,
and whilst these signals performed less well for the first and third
waves, any rapid increase in cases could be identified well in advance.

"There is a lot of conflicting evidence surrounding EWS use in
epidemiology and ecological monitoring in general, so we hope some the methodological points we raise in this work helps others disentangle
the complicated behaviour of these warnings." EWSs' interpretation can
be difficult when using real world data due to their need for specific mathematical conditions. However, recent conceptual work relaxing some
of these requirements is supported in this study but has generally been discounted during the use of EWSs in epidemiology. The next steps for
research are therefore to explore how the methodological differences
published today improve generic assessments of disease dynamics.

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Bristol. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Duncan A. O'Brien, Christopher F. Clements. Early warning signal
reliability varies with COVID-19 waves. Biology Letters, 2021; 17
(12) DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2021.0487 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/12/211208090137.htm

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