Why we feel confident about decisions we make

Date:
January 12, 2022
Source:
ETH Zurich
Summary:
A team of researchers has shown for the first time that decisions
feel right to us if we have compared the options as attentively
as possible - - and if we are conscious of having done so. This
requires a capacity for introspection.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A team of researchers led by ETH Professor Rafael Polani'a has shown for
the first time that decisions feel right to us if we have compared the
options as attentively as possible -- and if we are conscious of having
done so. This requires a capacity for introspection.


========================================================================== Buying a second-​hand car at a good price feels good. But choosing
a delicious-​looking doughnut in the supermarket leaves us riddled
with doubt. After all, we resolved to eat a healthier diet this year --
so wouldn't it be better to buy an apple? We've all experienced this
feeling at one time or another: some decisions intuitively feel right,
while others leave us feeling doubtful and may even cause us to revise
our initial choice. But where does this feeling come from? For the first
time, a team of researchers at ETH Zurich and the University of Zurich
led by ETH Professor Rafael Polani'a has investigated this question systematically. The authors used experimental data to develop a computer
model that can predict how an individual will choose between different
options and why they might subsequently feel confident or doubtful about
the decision they made.

"Using our model, we've successfully shown that decisions are most
likely to feel right if we have invested significant attentional effort
in weighing up the different options and, what's more, are conscious of
having done so," says Polani'a, who heads up the Decision Neuroscience
Lab at ETH Zurich.

Consequently, the ability to question and revise poor decisions depends
on how well we are able to judge for ourselves whether we thoroughly
weighed up the options or allowed ourselves to be distracted during
the decision-​making process. This self-​awareness, which
experts typically refer to as introspection, is an essential prerequisite
for self-​control.

Examining subjective evaluations of choice in the lab The confidence
we have in our own decisions is based on subjective value estimations
that we typically make automatically and unquestioningly as part of our day-​to-day lives. To enable a systematic analysis of how this
process works, Polani'a and his team studied how test subjects evaluate
and select everyday foods.



==========================================================================
The 35 study participants were initially asked to evaluate 64 products
from two Swiss supermarket chains. They were presented with a picture
of each product on screen and asked how much they would like to eat it
at the end of the experiment. In the second part of the experiment, the
test subjects were shown a series of pictures that showed two products
at the same time. In each case, they were asked to choose one of the
two options -- doughnut or apple, pizza or pear -- and then rate how
much confidence they had in their decision.

To make the experiment as realistic as possible, the participants had
to eat the products after the experiment. The researchers used an eye
scanner during both the evaluation and decision-​making phases to determine whether the participants spent longer looking at one of the
two products, how often their gaze shifted from left to right, and how
quickly they made their decision.

Higher attentional effort leads to greater confidence Using this data and
a similar dataset from a different research group, Polani'a together with
his PhD student Jeroen Brus developed a computer model that can predict
under which conditions people will have confidence -- or a lack thereof --
in their decisions. "We discovered that people are particularly likely to
have a bad feeling about a decision if they introspect that they didn't
pay enough attention to comparing the different options," Polani'a says.

The model uses the patterns of participants' eye movements to determine
how much effort they actually put into evaluating and comparing the
different products. Someone who takes their time and always keeps both
options in their sights is considered to have invested high attentional
effort, while those who tend to fixate on just one option and neglect
the other are regarded as having been less attentive.



==========================================================================
The best way to illustrate these findings is by considering an example
from everyday life: if we unthinkingly add a doughnut to our shopping
basket, even after expressing an intention to eat more healthily,
and subsequently realise that we didn't even think about healthier alternatives, we ought to have low confidence in our decision and revise
it. If, on the other hand, we are conscious of having carefully considered
a series of healthier products but then decided against them because we
simply wanted the doughnut more than an apple or pear, we should have confidence in our decision.

Using introspection to revise poor decisions According to the study's
authors, the ability to question poor decisions and have confidence
in good ones depends to a large extent on how conscious an individual
is of their subjective value judgements and comparisons after making a decision. This is something neuroscientists refer to as introspection.

"Once we've made a decision, we can feel doubtful as to its value and
revise it only if we're actually conscious of the fact that we failed
to pay enough attention to comparing the options," Polani'a says. This
capacity for introspection is also a crucial part of our ability to
exercise self- ​control. Without it, Polani'a says, we would be far
more likely to act on our preferences for, say, unhealthy foods without questioning them. The good news is that we can train this ability through mindfulness exercises and meditation.

Applications in smart glasses and self-​driving vehicles Polani'a
says this model could eventually be incorporated into smart glasses that
track eye movements. "The glasses could use the model to determine how attentive we're being and let us know when we should question a decision,"
he says.

Polani'a also believes the model could be useful for self-​driving
cars.

The algorithms used in autonomous vehicles are constantly making decisions based on a continuous stream of data from the vehicle's sensors. "Our
model could help the vehicle evaluate its decisions and revise them
where necessary," Polani'a says.

special promotion Get a free digital "Metabolism Myths"
issue of New Scientist and discover the 7 things we always
get wrong about diet and exercise. Claim_yours_now_>>> landing.newscientist.com/what-is-new-scientist-sd/ ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by ETH_Zurich. Original written by
Christoph Elhardt. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Jeroen Brus, Helena Aebersold, Marcus Grueschow, Rafael
Polania. Sources
of confidence in value-based choice. Nature Communications, 2021;
12 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27618-5 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220112105650.htm
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