Groundwater level threatens to fall in Germany due to climate change


Date:
April 13, 2022
Source:
Karlsruher Institut fu"r Technologie (KIT)
Summary:
Climate change directly affects groundwater resources. Groundwater
levels in Germany threaten to fall in the next decades.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Climate change directly affects groundwater resources. Groundwater
levels in Germany threaten to fall in the next decades. This is the
result of a study made by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and
the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR). It
is now published in Nature Communications.


========================================================================== Experts from BGR and KIT used AI-based forecast models to find out
how climate change will affect groundwater resources in Germany in
the 21st century. They applied deep learning methods to assess on the
basis of groundwater data from all over the Germany the development of groundwater levels for different locations and climate scenarios defined
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These scenarios
ranged from an assumed increase of global mean temperature by less than
2 degrees Celsius until 2100, the target defined by the Paris Climate Agreement, to a moderate scenario (plus 2.6 degrees) to the so-called business-as-usual scenario that is based on the absence of any climate protection measures and an increase in temperature by up to 5 degrees
compared to the pre-industrial level. "Our scientific study exclusively
covered direct climatic impacts and changes. Anthropogenic factors, such
as groundwater extraction, were not considered," says Andreas Wunsch from
KIT's Institute of Applied Geosciences (AGW), first author of the study.

Forecasts Reveal: Falling Groundwater Levels Are Independent of
the Scenario According to the experts, all three climate scenarios
studied lead to more or less strong developments with droughts,
falling groundwater levels, and a changed water availability. While
less pronounced trends were obtained for the two more optimistic
scenarios, KIT and BGR experts found a trend towards significantly
falling groundwater levels at most locations for the strongest of the
three warming scenarios. "The results of this prognosis are particularly relevant to the near future, as this scenario is closest to today's
situation," says Dr. Tanja Liesch, AGW.

"Future negative impacts will be particularly visible in North and East Germany, where the corresponding developments have already started. Here, longer periods of low groundwater levels threaten to occur by the end
of the century in particular," says Dr. Stefan Broda, BGR. For the two
weaker warming scenarios, this trend is not that severe. KIT and BGR
experts think that this indicates that the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions may have a positive impact on future groundwater levels.

The published results were obtained within the BGR project MENTOR that
is aimed at developing an AI-based method for nationwide forecast of groundwater levels.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
Karlsruher_Institut_fu"r_Technologie_(KIT). Note: Content may be edited
for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Stefan Broda. Deep learning shows
declining
groundwater levels in Germany until 2100 due to climate
change. Nature Communications, 2022; 13 (1) DOI:
10.1038/s41467-022-28770-2 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/04/220413104156.htm

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