Earth's vital signs worsen amid business-as-usual mindset on climate
change

Date:
July 28, 2021
Source:
Oregon State University
Summary:
Twenty months after declaring a climate emergency and establishing
a set of vital signs for the Earth, a coalition headed by two
Oregon State University researchers says the updated vital signs
"largely reflect the consequences of unrelenting business as usual."


FULL STORY ========================================================================== Twenty months after declaring a climate emergency and establishing a set
of vital signs for the Earth, a coalition headed by two Oregon State
University researchers says the updated vital signs "largely reflect
the consequences of unrelenting business as usual."

========================================================================== Authors led by OSU's William Ripple and Christopher Wolf, in a paper
published today in BioScience, are calling for a phase-out of fossil
fuels in response to the climate crisis. They also want strategic climate reserves for the storage of carbon and the protection of biodiversity,
and a global price for carbon high enough to induce "decarbonization"
across the industrial and consumption spectrum.

The scientists note an unprecedented surge in climate-related disasters
since 2019, including devastating floods, record-shattering heat waves
and extraordinary storms and wildfires.

"There is growing evidence we are getting close to or have already
gone beyond tipping points associated with important parts of the Earth
system, including warm-water coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest and the
West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets," said Ripple, distinguished
professor of ecology in the OSU College of Forestry.

2020 was the second hottest year in history, with the five hottest years
on record all occurring since 2015. And three key greenhouse gases --
carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide -- set records for atmospheric concentrations in 2020 and again in 2021.

In April 2021, carbon dioxide concentration reached 416 parts per million,
the highest monthly global average concentration ever recorded.



========================================================================== "Priorities need to shift toward immediate, drastic reductions in
greenhouse gases, especially methane," said Wolf, a postdoctoral scholar
in the College of Forestry.

"We also need to stop treating the climate emergency as a stand-alone
issue - - global heating is not the sole symptom of our stressed Earth
system," Ripple said. "Policies to combat the climate crisis or any
other symptoms should address their root cause: human overexploitation
of the planet." With its myriad economic interruptions and shutdowns,
the COVID-19 pandemic had the side effect of providing some climate
crisis relief but only of the ephemeral variety, the scientists say.

"Global gross domestic product dropped by 3.6% in 2020 but is projected
to rebound to an all-time high," Ripple said. "Likely because of
the pandemic, fossil fuel consumption has gone down since 2019, as
have carbon dioxide emissions and airline travel levels. All of these
are expected to significantly rise with the opening of the economy."
A major lesson of the pandemic, the authors say, is that even colossally decreased transportation and consumption are insufficient to tackle
climate change and instead transformational system changes are required,
even if politically unpopular. Despite pledging to "build back better"
by globally directing COVID-19 recovery investments toward green policies,
only 17% of such funds had been allocated that way as of early March 2021.



==========================================================================
"As long as humanity's pressure on the Earth system continues, attempted remedies will only redistribute the pressure," Wolf said. "But by
halting the unsustainable exploitation of natural habitats, we can
reduce zoonotic disease transmission risks, protect carbon stocks and
conserve biodiversity, all at the same time." Other key vital signs
the authors highlight:
* Ruminant livestock now number more than 4 billion, and their
total mass
is more than that of all humans and wild animals combined.

* Brazilian Amazon annual forest loss rates increased in both 2019 and
2020, reaching a 12-year high of 1.11 million hectares deforested
in 2020.

* Ocean acidification is near an all-time record. Together with
thermal
stress, it threatens the coral reefs that more than half a
billion people depend on for food, tourism dollars and storm
surge protection.

"All climate actions should focus on social justice by reducing inequality
and prioritizing basic human needs," Ripple said. "And climate change
education should be included in school core curriculums around the world
-- that would result in greater awareness of the climate emergency and
empower learners to take action." Ripple, Wolf and OSU colleagues Bev
Law and Jillian Gregg, along with collaborators from Massachusetts,
Australia, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Bangladesh
and Germany, call for a "three-pronged near-term policy approach"
that includes a globally implemented serious carbon price, a phase-
out and eventual ban of fossil fuels, and strategic climate reserves to safeguard and restore natural carbon sinks and biodiversity.

"The carbon price needs to be linked to a socially just fund to finance
climate mitigation and adaptation policies in the developing world,"
Ripple said. "We need to quickly change how we're doing things, and
new climate policies should be part of COVID-19 recovery plans wherever possible. It's time for us to join together as a global community with a
shared sense of cooperation, urgency and equity." The paper by Ripple,
Wolf and collaborators comes out as the International Panel on Climate
Change prepares to release its report, on the physical science of climate change, on Aug. 9. The IPCC says the report will include an assessment
of scientific knowledge about the warming of the planet and projections
for future warming.

Joining the OSU scientists on the paper are Thomas Newsome of the
University of Sydney; Timothy Lenton of the University of Exeter;
Ignacio Palomo of the University of Grenoble Alps; Jasper Eikelboom of Wageningen University and Research; Saleemul Huq of Independent University Bangladesh; Philip Duffy of the Woodwell Climate Research Center; and
Johan Rockstro"m of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The 2019 climate emergency paper, also published in BioScience, at the
time had more than 11,000 scientist signatories from 153 countries. The signatories now total nearly 14,000 from 158 countries.

"Almost 2,000 jurisdictions including 23 national governments have
declared or recognized a climate emergency," Ripple said. "But given
all of the alarming climate developments, we need to keep providing
short, frequent and easily accessible updates on this emergency." ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Oregon_State_University. Original
written by Steve Lundeberg. Note: Content may be edited for style
and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Thomas M Newsome, Jillian
W Gregg,
Timothy M Lenton, Ignacio Palomo, Jasper A J Eikelboom, Beverly
E Law, Saleemul Huq, Philip B Duffy, Johan Rockstro"m. World
Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021. BioScience, 2021;
DOI: 10.1093/biosci/ biab079 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/07/210728105720.htm

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