Minor volcanic eruptions could `cascade' into global catastrophe

Date:
August 6, 2021
Source:
University of Cambridge
Summary:
Researchers call for a shift in focus away from risks of
'super-volcanic' eruptions and towards likelier scenarios of
smaller eruptions in key global 'pinch points' creating devastating
domino effects.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Currently, much of the thinking around risks posed by volcanoes follows
a simple equation: the bigger the likely eruption, the worse it will be
for society and human welfare.


========================================================================== However, a team of experts now argues that too much focus is on the risks
of massive yet rare volcanic explosions, while far too little attention
is paid to the potential domino effects of moderate eruptions in key
parts of the planet.

Researchers led by the University of Cambridge's Centre for the Study
of Existential Risk (CSER) have identified seven "pinch points" where
clusters of relatively small but active volcanoes sit alongside vital infrastructure that, if paralyzed, could have catastrophic global
consequences.

These regions include volcano groups in Taiwan, North Africa, the North Atlantic, and the northwestern United States. The report is published
today in the journal Nature Communications.

"Even a minor eruption in one of the areas we identify could erupt enough
ash or generate large enough tremors to disrupt networks that are central
to global supply chains and financial systems," said Dr Lara Mani from
CSER, lead author of the latest report.

"At the moment, calculations are too skewed towards giant explosions
or nightmare scenarios, when the more likely risks come from moderate
events that disable major international communications, trade networks
or transport hubs.

This is true of earthquakes and extreme weather as well as volcanic
eruption." Mani and colleagues say that smaller eruptions ranking up
to 6 on the "volcanic explosivity index"- rather than the 7s and 8s
that tend to occupy catastrophist thinking -- could easily produce ash
clouds, mudflows and landslides that scupper undersea cables, leading
to financial market shutdowns, or devastate crop yields, causing food
shortages that lead to political turmoil.



==========================================================================
As an example from recent history, the team point to events of 2010 in
Iceland, where a magnitude 4 eruption from the Eyjafjallajo"kull volcano,
close to the major "pinch point" of mainland Europe, saw plumes of ash
carried on northwesterly winds close European airspace at a cost of US$5 billion to the global economy.

Yet when Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in 1991, a magnitude
6 eruption some 100 times greater in scale than the Icelandic event,
its distance from vital infrastructure meant that overall economic
damage was less than a fifth of Eyjafjallajo"kull. (Pinatubo would
have a global economic impact of around US$740 million if it occurred
in 2021.) The seven "pinch point" areas identified by the experts --
within which relatively small eruptions could inflict maximum global
mayhem -- include the volcanic group on the northern tip of Taiwan. Home
to one of the largest producers of electronic chips, if this area --
along with the Port of Taipei - - was indefinitely incapacitated, the
global tech industry could grind to a halt.

Another pinch point is the Mediterranean, where legends of the classical
world such as Vesuvius and Santorini could induce tsunamis that smash
submerged cable networks and seal off the Suez Canal. "We saw what a
six-day closure to the Suez Canal did earlier this year, when a single
stuck container ship cost up to ten billion dollars a week in global
trade," said Mani.

Eruptions in the US state of Washington in the Pacific Northwest could
trigger mudflows and ash clouds that blanket Seattle, shutting down
airports and seaports. Scenario modelling for a magnitude 6 eruption
from Mount Rainier predicts potential economic losses of more than US$7 trillion over the ensuing five years.



==========================================================================
The highly active volcanic centres along the Indonesian archipelago --
from Sumatra to Central Java -- also line the Strait of Malacca: one
of the busiest shipping passages in the world, with 40% of global trade traversing the narrow route each year.

The Luzon Strait in the South China Sea, another key shipping route,
is the crux of all the major submerged cabling that connects China,
Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. It is also encircled by the
Luzon Volcanic Arc.

The researchers also identify the volcanic region straddling the
Chinese-North- Korean border, from which plumes of ash would disrupt
the busiest air routes in the east, and point out that a reawakening of Icelandic volcanoes would do the same in the west.

"It's time to change how we view extreme volcanic risk," added
Mani. "We need to move away from thinking in terms of colossal
eruptions destroying the world, as portrayed in Hollywood films. The
more probable scenarios involve lower- magnitude eruptions interacting
with our societal vulnerabilities and cascading us towards catastrophe." ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Cambridge. The original
text of this story is licensed under a Creative_Commons_License. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Lara Mani, Asaf Tzachor, Paul Cole. Global catastrophic risk
from lower
magnitude volcanic eruptions. Nature Communications, 2021; 12 (1)
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25021-8 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210806104342.htm

--- up 13 weeks, 22 hours, 45 minutes
* Origin: -=> Castle Rock BBS <=- Now Husky HPT Powered! (1:317/3)