Benefits outweigh risks for autonomous vehicles - if they are regulated


Date:
August 23, 2021
Source:
North Carolina State University
Summary:
Experts have assessed the risks and potential benefits associated
with deploying autonomous vehicles (AVs) on U.S. roads and predicts
that the benefits will substantially outweigh potential harms --
but only if the AVs are well regulated.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
An interdisciplinary panel of experts has assessed the risks and
potential benefits associated with deploying autonomous vehicles (AVs)
on U.S. roads and predicts that the benefits will substantially outweigh potential harms -- but only if the AVs are well regulated.


==========================================================================
"We wanted to assess the potential harms and benefits associated with AVs
and determine what the best implementation strategies would be to minimize harms and maximize benefits," says Veljko Dubljevi?, first author of the
study and an associate professor in the Science, Technology & Society
(STS) program at North Carolina State University.

Deploying AVs onto public roads is a complex social issue, which touches
on everything from ethics to transportation engineering to artificial intelligence programming.

"And there aren't many methods for assessing such complex social
problems," Dubljevi? says. "One approach is to break the large
problem down into a collection of more specific questions, assessing
different risks and potential benefits separately. This approach is
called multi-criteria decision analysis, and it's what we did here."
For this study, the researchers outlined four different scenarios for
the future of AVs:
* No AVs allowed on public roads; * AVs are allowed, with no
regulations; * AVs are allowed, but are regulated; * AVs are regulated
and can only be owned by commercial fleet operators.

The researchers then convened a panel of 19 experts with expertise in
subjects such as computer science, political science, transportation
and ethics.



==========================================================================
The researchers also created a list of 13 potential harms and eight
potential benefits associated with deploying AVs. The list was developed
based on documents from the National Academies and other federal agencies,
as well as input from the expert panel convened for the study. Potential
harms included assessments of increased risk of accident deaths or cases
of injury. Potential benefits included assessments of economic benefits
and curtailing environmental impact by reducing traffic jams.

The expert panel then reviewed the four AV deployment scenarios with
the goal of determining which scenarios had the best ratio of benefits
to harms.

"To assess the potential impact of AV deployment, you have to compare it
to a baseline," says George List, co-author of the study and a professor
of civil engineering at NC State. "The baseline was our current state of affairs. And our current state of affairs is that there are a tremendous
number of deaths and injuries on U.S. roads.

"While AVs are not perfect, all of our predictions suggest that they
will be a step in the right direction. Prohibiting the use of AVs on
U.S. roads was the least promising scenario." However, the expert panel
also highlighted the extent to which government regulations could help
reduce risk.



==========================================================================
"For example, regulations could limit use of AVs in urban environments
and areas with high pedestrian traffic," Dubljevi? says. "Either of the regulated scenarios is better than allowing unregulated AVs on the road."
So, which scenario offered the most benefits and the fewest risks?
"Regulating AV use and limiting ownership to commercial fleet operators
is a little more promising than allowing the general public to own and
operate their own AVs," Dubljevi? says. That's because fleet ownership
makes it more likely that AVs will be properly maintained, software
updates will be made on time, and so on.

"We hope that federal, state and local governments use our findings to
review whatever regulations they have in place concerning the use of
autonomous vehicles -- or to develop regulations if there are none on
the books," Dubljevi? says.

The work was done with support from the Kenan Institute of Science and Technology and North Carolina State University Research and Innovation.

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by North_Carolina_State_University. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Veljko Dubljevic, George List, Jovan Milojevich, Nirav Ajmeri,
William A.

Bauer, Munindar P. Singh, Eleni Bardaka, Thomas A. Birkland,
Charles H.

W. Edwards, Roger C. Mayer, Ioan Muntean, Thomas M. Powers,
Hesham A.

Rakha, Vance A. Ricks, M. Shoaib Samandar. Toward a rational and
ethical sociotechnical system of autonomous vehicles: A novel
application of multi-criteria decision analysis. PLOS ONE, 2021;
16 (8): e0256224 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256224 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210823125654.htm

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