ACUS11 KWNS 081749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081748=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-081915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...western to central Carolinas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

Valid 081748Z - 081915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
continues.

SUMMARY...A mix of discrete cells and clusters should spread
east-southeast across parts of the western Carolinas through late
afternoon. Expansion of WW 203 and/or an additional severe
thunderstorm watch appears likely.

DISCUSSION...Convective evolution of multiple supercells and
clusters has been decidedly southeastward over the past couple hours
along large-scale outflow. This has diminished the overall severe
threat in northeast TN. Meanwhile, a couple supercells embedded with
the cluster persist near the Asheville, NC area, while a separate
discrete supercell was located farther south to the west of
Greenville, SC. Surface temperatures across the lower Piedmont area
have warmed through the mid to upper 80s, which will likely support
a continued severe hail and damaging wind threat downstream. The 16Z
HRRR appears to be an outlier with its indication of convection
diminishing as it spreads east of the higher terrain. While
low-level flow is weak per GSP VWP data, abundant mid to upper speed
shear will favor embedded supercells and clusters persisting,
reasonably simulated by the 12Z NSSL-MPAS.

..Grams.. 05/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6iHZH8tP8-Z7mgz8kmCheyhrvsy8py_cT3IHLnCoN_eF4YoIDrWHjFEJ4iZjP1OCu124fYgbx= qjo82mh49wy-FiVBlk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35898219 35708037 35318000 34838000 34128014 33758078
33938167 34278253 34738311 35068355 35398346 35398346
35898219=20


=3D =3D =3D
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