ACUS11 KWNS 140959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140958=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-141130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Areas affected...North FL into south GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 240...
Valid 140958Z - 141130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 240 continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind may spread farther
into south Georgia and north Florida this morning.
DISCUSSION...A band of convection that earlier developed along the
periphery of a weakening MCS is now moving eastward, to the east of
the Tallahassee area. While this convection is rather vigorous, with
some cooling cloud tops noted in IR imagery, it remains rather
disorganized at this time. However, with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and
moderate deep-layer shear across the region, further organization of
this convective band remains possible with time. If this occurs,
some threat for damaging wind will spread farther into south GA and
north FL, especially if the convective band can merge with new
convection that has recently developed to its immediate south and
southeast.=20
The need for short-term watch issuance downstream of WW 240 remains
uncertain, and will depend on short-term trends regarding intensity
and organization of the ongoing cluster. Potential remains for an
upstream cluster of storms (currently over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico) to eventually move across the area later this morning, which
could also pose a severe risk.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ko64RqMAtCl022R8-AOBPh9W_Gf_TABSQbW7BBK1LUkTCOQsQkPPwCIHSIV-oFgGDtdgERUm= yLrfNluCRoFviBc7UE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29948200 29318238 28848281 28658364 28668411 28848445
29588393 30368388 30768400 30968328 31078237 30758186
29948200=20
=3D =3D =3D
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