ACUS11 KWNS 192132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192132=20
IAZ000-ILZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...South-central to southeast Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192132Z - 192330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms across south-central to southeast
Iowa may pose a large hail and severe wind threat over the next
couple of hours. This threat should remain sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection across central IA has shown
periodic signs of intensification to near severe levels based on IR
cloud top temperatures and MRMS vertically integrated ICE products
with a measured 61 mph gust noted at KPEA. This activity appears to
largely be driven by a combination of weak ascent atop a diffuse
stationary front and propagation along a buoyancy gradient draped
from south-central to southeast IA. This boundary/gradient appears
to be gradually spreading north/northeast over the past couple of
hours, which should support storm propagation into southeast to
perhaps eastern IA by early evening. Along with sporadic severe
winds, large hail - most likely between 0.75 to 1.25 inches - may be
a threat. It remains unclear how much additional convection will
develop and become sustained within the frontal zone based on trends
of trailing convection across central IA, but the general
expectation is for a limited coverage of intense/severe storms.

..Moore/Smith.. 05/19/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6wd4zdf8S6dYvQKFJHtmbyZ1-MSm98RHlRBhfPoRxL1YbFKeuqv4Yql8NtYXNmFI9dPt2qj7w= wuM0JgpbLWXET96yCo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON 41109272 41149295 41299308 41609312 41769299 42359099
42139067 41869051 41609058 41389065 41259084 41149109
41109272=20


=3D =3D =3D
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