• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1039

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 28 15:50:05 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 281550
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281549=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-281745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1039
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1049 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

    Areas affected...central into southeast TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 281549Z - 281745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may develop along residual outflow across central
    into southeast Texas from late morning into the afternoon.
    Severe/damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch will
    likely be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is starting to develop near/just behind
    outflow across central Texas. While outflow may continue to sag
    southward, a very moist airmass remains in place with surface
    dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Strong heating and midlevel lapse
    rates around 8-8.5 C/km within this moist environment is resulting
    in strong destabilization (MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg). Any storms
    that develop within this airmass will likely become severe, posing a
    risk of large hail and severe gusts. If clustering occurs, a line of
    severe storms may develop southeast from the Edwards Plateau toward
    the Upper Texas Coast later this afternoon. A watch will likely be
    needed for portions of the region soon.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4rNCNKW-vRXm-XlKPceyEwPYzI6WlEZrZR-rnh5EQ_0_gAhyANEPfBfWG-k_ICW-FJzJbVxLU= 0g4_l7eSZGLhCopmn8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30519909 30769888 31059830 31229733 31109402 30839358
    30209367 29939375 29609436 29359492 29309566 29319726
    29359789 29439833 29509868 29629891 29959906 30189910
    30519909=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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