• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1192

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 7 22:03:34 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 072203
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072202=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-080000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1192
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of southeast NE...northeast KS...and far
    northwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 072202Z - 080000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for
    portions of the area in the next hour or so. Primary concerns are
    large hail (some 2+ inches) and damaging winds (some 75+ mph).

    DISCUSSION...Several intense semi-discrete supercells are tracking southeastward across central NE this afternoon. These storms are
    evolving in an environment characterized by moderate surface-based
    instability and 45-55 kt of deep-layer shear (with ample clockwise
    hodograph curvature) per regional VWP data. Over the next several
    hours, this activity will generally continue tracking southeastward
    along the eastern edge of a northwest/southeast-oriented instability
    gradient. While downstream cloud coverage has stunted diurnal
    heating in some areas, temperatures have generally warmed into the
    mid/upper 80s amid middle 60s dewpoints. This should continue to
    support surface-based inflow as storms continue southeastward into
    tonight.=20

    Given the aforementioned wind profile, a semi-discrete supercell
    mode may persist initially, with large hail (some 2+ inches) and
    damaging winds possible. With time, a strengthening low-level jet
    may encourage upscale growth into severe larger supercell clusters
    and/or bowing segments, with an increasing risk of damaging winds
    (some 75+ mph). Evolution into a consolidated MCS is still unclear
    at this time, though this scenario would yield a greater wind risk.
    A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for parts of the
    area to cover this risk.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/07/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8353C9lxmDZ8jv4HbjgfKTol-EQ3MNDwlR-D5GLWCtZDj1PeZbz6rVXzh81aoG8_fD_TGRxIq= 22qJBlCgDq48uJgbG8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39919977 40389973 40899917 41189815 41319711 41109622
    40469527 39999476 39119458 38259524 38049619 38049767
    38299839 38969918 39919977=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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