• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1296

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 17 04:35:06 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 170434
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170434=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-170600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1296
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

    Areas affected...Western/northern NE...south-central/southeast
    SD...southwest MN...extreme northwest IA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

    Valid 170434Z - 170600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for hail and perhaps isolated strong/severe
    gusts will continue overnight.

    DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection that earlier erupted
    across northern NE/southern SD has evolved into an elongated storm
    cluster with occasional embedded elevated supercells. Some recent intensification has also been noted with a storm cluster moving into
    the southeast part of the NE Panhandle from northeast CO. Moderate
    to strong elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will
    support occasionally organized storms into the overnight hours. A
    strong low-level jet will continue to support rather widespread
    storm coverage, with a tendency toward a cluster and perhaps
    eventually a linear mode. This mode evolution may not be ideal for a
    more organized hail threat, but very steep midlevel lapse rates will
    result in occasional large-hail potential with the stronger embedded
    cells. Isolated strong to severe gusts will also be possible,
    especially if organized upscale growth occurs.=20

    Some severe threat may spread into southern MN and far northwest IA
    with time, and eventual downstream watch issuance is possible if
    observational trends support maintenance of an organized
    severe-thunderstorm threat.

    ..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6oh9zdzfnDMog2gRg9uxLVdl_wYa6SfPkVoqnDmLbkB9U07-eWxVT4qN8JBM_R4kifoD9PY1s= wIupJVckGU0DMrAUyE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42570349 43619957 44339729 45089478 44629420 44009395
    42749751 41830029 41140165 41080267 41210340 42570349=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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