ACUS11 KWNS 240640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240640=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-240845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas affected...Eastern MT...Western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 240640Z - 240845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail are possible across eastern
Montana and western North Dakota over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Warm-air advection across a frontal zone across eastern
MT has contributed to an increase in elevated thunderstorm activity
over the past hour or so. Significant buoyancy exists downstream
across far eastern MT and into western ND, supported primarily by
steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 8.5 to 9 deg C per km) and modest
mid-level moisture. Based on recent mesoanalysis, 0-6 km bulk shear
is around 40 to 50 kt, with the resulting combination of vertical
shear and buoyancy supportive of organized updrafts and a few
elevated supercells. Given the buoyancy downstream, this activity
may persist for the next few hours into far eastern MT and western
ND, although the overall coverage may begin to decrease as storms
become displaced east of the more favorable warm-air advection.
Large hail is possible within the more organized storms, but the
overall severe risk should remain isolated, likely precluding the
need for a watch.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-a2MgROVsKktBADfO7Q2pF6qSbxQNZqLkqZiR-10zPAcsPnms63rwEVOfCiPPjWn1SHGnhXs_= TIroDRF9Egmb3q-beQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46010390 46130558 46630703 47350750 48330655 48700544
48760452 48530346 48040242 46870156 46090162 46010390=20


=3D =3D =3D
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