• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1423

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 26 08:36:38 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 260836
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260835=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1423
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

    Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast KS...Far Northeast
    OK...Southwest MO...Far Northwest AR

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462...

    Valid 260835Z - 261000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain possible across east-central KS and west-central MO. Additional severe potential may extend south into
    portions of southeast KS, far southwest MO, far northeast OK, and
    far northwest AR, and trends are being monitored for a possible
    watch.

    DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway across eastern
    KS as a southeastward-progressing convective line begins to interact
    with a more southward-progressing line ahead of it. This
    southward-progressing line is also interacting with more cellular,
    warm-air advection thunderstorms that extend from east-central KS
    into far northeast OK. The quickest forward motion exists with the southeastward-progressing line over northeast KS, and the general
    expectation is for this line to remain dominant as it continues
    southeastward, with perhaps a shift to a more southerly motion once
    it encounters the warm-air advection responsible for the
    east-central/southeast KS cellular development. However, strong
    updrafts exist in the Kansas City vicinity (along the western edge
    of the southward-progressing line), and there is some potential this
    portion begins to surge southward as it interacts with the warm-air
    advection to its south.

    In either case, portions of southeast KS, far southwest MO, far
    northeast OK, and far northwest AR may eventually be impacted by
    whatever evolves. As a result, convective trends are being monitored
    for a potential watch. Until this line arrives, isolated hail is
    possible within the more cellular storms across the region.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!82BI1CyxZkwnXxoRICU5aD-slwPGOqGddoC8N21vJnxaSJ7IxoaAWE7Hok00Uy1eEEmrD3bbu= 8ZyMnRYvAqNk32BK_g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38829645 38839473 35949299 35489593 37439662 38829645=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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