• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1480

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 29 22:10:44 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 292210
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292210=20
    INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-292345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1480
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0510 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern IL and IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292210Z - 292345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may develop and remain quasi-stationary across parts of Indiana and eastern Illinois. With
    an expected localized nature to the severe threat and low confidence
    in sustaining a longer-duration risk, severe thunderstorm watch
    issuance appears unlikely but trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of a small bowing cluster over southeast
    IN, residual outflow to its west/north converging with a leading
    cold front have supported isolated thunderstorm development across
    parts of IN into east-central/southeast IL. Much of central IN is
    void of cu in the wake of this cluster, suggesting that storms that
    can be sustained to the west and north will struggle to spread east.
    Deep-layer shear is stronger across northern IN, with MLCAPE greater
    back into IL, which will aid in an isolated severe hail/wind threat.
    However, low-level convergence along this leading boundary should
    wane for a time before a reinforcing cold front, currently over
    northern IL, shifts southeast later this evening.

    ..Grams/Smith.. 06/29/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5GVfm-R8Gg17V6xWb0ygEHYxNjsp6AD0_LEBU-Wxu0jZJjom61t96-9ieEmM1ISTyHhJWbk3O= kgPFmrIZXL0aD2z2pQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39308596 38908603 38568702 38568818 38778893 39358889
    39738891 40488769 41318640 41638586 41768547 41608511
    41258513 40838595 40258698 39928740 39308596=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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