• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1575

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 10 22:04:57 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 102204
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102204=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-102330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1575
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

    Areas affected...southeast NE...northeast KS...southern
    IA...northern MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

    Valid 102204Z - 102330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind may
    persist into the early evening. There is some potential for
    redevelopment northwest of the ongoing storms.

    DISCUSSION...A compact mid/upper-level low will continue moving south-southeastward across Iowa into this evening. Strong to
    occasionally severe storms that earlier developed across southwest
    IA are moving into northern MO late this afternoon. Storms have
    struggled to remain organized thus far, likely due to marginal
    effective shear (generally 20-30 kt). However, moderate buoyancy
    (MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg) and seasonably cool temperatures
    aloft could support occasional hail potential with the strongest
    updrafts. Rather extensive outflow has developed in the wake of
    these storms, which could support an isolated damaging-wind threat
    with any stronger storms along or just behind the gust front.=20

    Farther northwest into eastern NE, there is less influence from
    convective outflow, with moderate buoyancy expected to persist into
    early evening. While the surface pattern is rather nebulous,
    additional development is underway across the northwest portion of
    WW 519, and also just to the west of the watch, which could pose a
    threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. Trends will continue to
    be monitored for the potential need of local watch expansion to the
    north and west of WW 319.

    ..Dean.. 07/10/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7zFMIPYbMIU7p98YkiJlcEGllq22r6_FWplszB-3SulbWvn6kDEn-bFWLZKIZezu-ek-pzZEp= cjI5pQCHze86BewRWU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 41029776 41489601 40999502 40639341 40799184 40229147
    39679146 39319247 39499482 39629604 39809672 40089727
    40209756 41029776=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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