ACUS11 KWNS 122106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122105 COR
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-122300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024
Areas affected...Far northeastern Montana...western North
Dakota...and far northwestern South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 122105Z - 122300Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the next 1-2 hours across portions of western ND, far
northeastern MT, and far northwestern SD. Severe wind gusts near
65-76 mph, hail up to 1.5-2.0" in diameter, and perhaps a landspout
tornado or two will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating across the northern plains has resulted
in very warm temperatures in the low to upper 90s developing this
afternoon. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the low 70s east
of a surface trough/quasi-stationary warm front below steep
mid-level lapse rates, is yielding 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Recent
satellite imagery shows increasing cumulus beginning to develop
along the aforementioned trough. In addition, convective initiation
has already taken place near Manning, ND. Increasing mid-level flow
throughout late this afternoon into early this evening will likely
support some thunderstorm organization and the potential for a few
supercells.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to slowly increase late this
afternoon, as destabilization continues under cooler temperatures
aloft, subtle DCVA impacts the area, and surface convergence is
enhanced. Considering large dewpoint-temperature spreads further
west near the MT/ND border, damaging wind gusts appear more likely
there, although a few instances of large hail cannot be ruled out
through early this evening. Increasing low level helicity via backed
surface flow with time, along with some enhanced stretching, could
also support a landspout or two before sunset. Although a watch does
not appear likely at this time due to an uncertainty in severe
thunderstorm coverage, convective trends will be monitored closely
over the next 1-2 hours.
..Barnes/Hart.. 07/12/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91fwprTPwWl7h8YE9OoYqRx2OKIXup32Z2AY2IpdTXBjJ75qLHR7hN8EwrFxwcujF9UumlkTN= _amD6j0U8XNnyuun-A$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46920434 47680556 48480593 48910571 49010481 48990386
49040286 48760183 47400088 46220052 45280096 44920207
45570383 46920434=20
=3D =3D =3D
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