ACUS11 KWNS 161346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161345=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-161515-
Mesoscale Discussion 1649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into parts of MO and southwest
IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545...
Valid 161345Z - 161515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545
continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging/severe gusts may continue through
the morning. Additional watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...One thunderstorm cluster with a history of producing
severe gusts is currently near Kansas City, with another potentially
severe storm cluster over north-central MO. Other less-organized
convection is ongoing from southeast MO into southwest IL. Evolution
of the ongoing convection through the morning remains uncertain,
with a pocket of diurnal heating potential in advance of the
north-central MO cluster, and some heating/destabilization also
expected south of the storms across southeast MO/southwest IL.=20
MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and marginally supportive deep-layer
shear could continue to support some organized severe-wind potential
through the morning, especially in advance of the north-central MO
cluster. Downstream watch issuance into parts of eastern MO is
possible, depending on short-term convective trends. Some severe
threat could also eventually evolve out of the southeast
MO/southwest IL convection.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4KrCHAYAcbECKgV6eT-zsGqUCt51y28pZOQRCU5B5I8A0qqnuRTRZQDQztnS6rLAHXhXeezg_= zyhuACyqMaDA2slm4w$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 39729035 38748947 37948894 37168931 37249018 37779225
38269348 38779467 38949478 39329508 39629480 39789342
39729035=20
=3D =3D =3D
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