ACUS11 KWNS 172358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172357=20
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-180200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid and South-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...

Valid 172357Z - 180200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds will continue across portions
of the Mid and South-Atlantic for 2-3 more hours.

DISCUSSION...Two linear clusters of thunderstorms continue to
progress eastward this evening across eastern VA and MD. The most
significant of these two was beginning to dive southward over far
southeastern VA into far northern NC, where at least one bowing
segment has been observed. This former area is characterized by a
low-level moisture axis extending SSW to NNE, where estimated MLCAPE
is still near 2500 J/kg. Although deep layer effective shear remains
marginal over this region, slowly increasing moist southerly
low-level flow near the aforementioned instability axis should
continue to sustain updraft development along the convergence zone
of this small linear complex through the evening hours. However,
recent radar imagery indicates the outflow near the northeastern
flank of this cluster is now well ahead of it, suggesting a
weakening trend may be observed there soon.

..Barnes.. 07/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jEFsJC6jyj5INGpaf4vWl7Ne3DX7S50ncmesN5DQR-NccKtw20wyJka5vgnDBdhwRflvt3Td= 8h0yKYimm6josGnJ10$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 39577423 39637618 39067668 38587711 37897748 37587796
37427854 37027904 36547929 36337944 36237914 36137845
36157788 36237728 36257719 37587585 39577423=20


=3D =3D =3D
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