• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1699

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 24 17:30:52 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 241730
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241730=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-241900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1699
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

    Areas affected...Western New York and far northern Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 241730Z - 241900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
    with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to mature across
    western New York and northern Pennsylvania this afternoon. Continued
    heating and low-level moisture advection will increase instability
    this afternoon, peaking around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The BUF VWP
    shows around 30 knots of effective shear which will support some
    updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat
    with isolated large hail possible.

    A severe thunderstorm watch does not appear imminent, but if several
    stronger updrafts can congeal and mature, a small severe
    thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon/early evening.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/24/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!612xYk4HhZIxclABGkwbo7tmXkIP9nQ2uiEjg67OB-Qdv6JPLKZefgXb1yLzp4OpnqrvMb6Sf= 3IPR0evB6tuE_ZtSkQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

    LAT...LON 42047682 41927726 41637878 41957996 42128019 42407954
    42767891 43097905 43497844 43417721 43467639 43057626
    42357657 42047682=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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