ACUS11 KWNS 312233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312232=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-010000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024
Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into the eastern
Oklahoma Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 312232Z - 010000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be capable of
producing locally severe downbursts (55-65 mph) and marginally
severe hail (around 1 inch) through around 00Z.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along/immediately
ahead of a lee trough/dryline feature -- where temperatures have
warmed into the lower 100s F amid lower 60s dewpoints. Associated
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate surface-based instability
will support locally severe downbursts (55-65 mph) and perhaps an
instance or two of hail around 1 inch. Given around 25 kt of
deep-layer shear (per AMA VWP and latest mesoanalysis), storm
longevity should be limited, and the overall severe threat should
remain fairly isolated.
..Weinman/Smith.. 07/31/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-71IxXbfrcWW5LQJ1U7mmIMlUec_lsoYquXBA64sV5JdUKixJ11qK78KZ14zES4MzLSE5e9DJ= PyhWD_GcoqW98dBz0M$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35140292 35440248 36120178 36770096 36800055 36570020
36110032 35710071 34350253 34240288 34430326 34780325
35140292=20
=3D =3D =3D
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