731
AXNT20 KNHC 270812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of , Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04S to 04N between 15W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 3-5 ft prevail over the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds,
and seas of 1-3 ft are over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak and mostly dry cold front will move off
the Texas coast this morning. The front is expected to reach the
southeastern Gulf tonight. Fresh northerly winds west of the front
will diminish Fri afternoon as high pressure builds in the wake
of the front. Southeast winds are expected to increase slightly
over the central and western Gulf starting Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the
central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft
are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia will
strengthen toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern
Caribbean through Fri as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. These
winds will gradually expand in coverage through the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to develop in the
lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 31N57W to 25N65W becomes stationary
to the eastern tip of Cuba. Moderate winds are within 90 NM either
side of the front. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere W of the
font. Seas of 6-8 ft are in the vicinity of the front N of 28N.
Elsewhere W of the front, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-9 ft generally prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. The next cold
front will move offshore the southeastern United States tonight.
This front will reach from near 31N73W to east- central Cuba early
Fri and from near 31N65W to NW Haiti Fri night, then stall and
weaken Sat. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of
the front N of about 27N Fri. High pressure will settle over the
western part of the area Sat, with generally calm conditions over
most of the area. Another cold front will move across the western
and central forecast waters Sun and Sun night, reaching the
eastern part of the area Mon, with fresh to strong north to
northeast winds expected south of about 28N and west of the front.


$$
AL
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576
AXNT20 KNHC 281007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 05N between 17W and
31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving through the northern Gulf, extending from
29N83W southwestward to 22N98W. No deep convection is occurring
with this front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 4 ft
prevail across much of the Gulf, with the exception of the SE Bay
of Campeche where moderate to fresh NE winds prevail.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move SE of the Gulf
today, followed by moderate northerly winds. These winds will
diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds across the area.
Southeast winds are expected to increase over the central and
western Gulf on Sun. Another cold front is expected to move across
the eastern and central Gulf waters on Sun, followed by stronger
high pressure that will build southward across the eastern Gulf
into early next week. A tight gradient will lead to fresh
northeast to east winds over the southeastern Gulf early next
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge located north of Bermuda extends southward
into the Caribbean Sea, and a 1008 mb low has been analyzed over
northwestern Colombia. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting fresh to strong northeast winds in the
south-central basin just offshore of Colombia and Venezuela, with
rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3
to 6 ft prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft in the
northwestern basin.

For the forecast, strong NE winds offshore Colombia will pulse each
night through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through early
next week. Mostly fresh NE winds are forecast to pulse in the
lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N57W to 25N65W, where it
transitions to a trough to 21N68W. Scattered showers are noted
along and east of the front. The rest of the SW North Atlantic
(west of 60W and N of 20N) is under the influence of a 1032 mb
high pressure centered NE of Bermuda and an attendant ridge
extending southwestward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail in these waters. For the
remainder of the basin, fresh to strong E to NE winds and seas of
5-9 ft prevail, with the highest seas occurring south of 20N
between 25W and 55W.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today. The
next cold front will move into our offshore waters in the W
Atlantic today. The front will reach from 31N68W to 27N73W this
afternoon, then it will weaken near southeastern Bahamas tonight.
The front will stall and dissipate this weekend. Fresh to strong
winds are expected on either side of the front N of about 27N
today. High pressure will settle over the western part of the area
Sat, with generally calm conditions over most of the area.
Another cold front will move across the western and central
forecast waters on Sun, reaching the eastern part of the area
early next week, where it will stall. Fresh to strong north to
northeast winds are expected south of about 27N and west of the
front starting Mon.

$$
ERA
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513
AXNT20 KNHC 010943
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S to 06N between 25W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends across the Florida Straits along 23N and
E of 82W. No significant convection is noted with this boundary.
A high pressure of 1018 mb has settled into the NE Gulf behind
the front. A surface trough is analyzed over the W Gulf,
paralleling the coasts of Texas and Mexico roughly 100 nm
offshore. The remainder of the basin is under a weak high
pressure pattern that supports gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds prevail across
the basin, with slight to moderate seas. A new cold front is
forecast to sink across the NE Gulf waters tonight and exit the SE
basin Sun morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds will follow this
front through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will develop
over the western half of the Gulf Tue morning ahead of the next
cold front forecast to come off the Texas coast late Tue. The cold
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz offshore
waters Wed morning and exit the basin Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Atlantic to the waters N of
Puerto Rico. This pressure pattern is forcing fresh to strong NE-E
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, as confirmed by
satellite scatterometer data. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
prevalent across the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere across NW portions, moderate or weaker N to NE winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse each night offshore
Colombia through Tue night while strong trades are forecast to
affect the Gulf of Venezuela through the weekend. Moderate to
fresh winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to
gentle to moderate speeds Mon morning and continue through Tue
night. The tail end of a cold front will move across Cuba on Sun
night. High pressure building in the wake of the front will lead
to the development of moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of
Cuba Sun night into Mon night, and fresh to strong E to SE winds
in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 23N80W. A pre-frontal trough
is analyzed from 31N59W to 19N66W. Otherwise, the Atlantic is
dominated by ridging stemming from a 1038 mb high centered near
46N26W. The pressure gradient between the ridge extending SW from
this high and lower pressure in the tropics results in fresh to
strong NE to E winds across much of the Atlantic S of 31N and E of
64W. Moderate or weaker E to SE winds prevail W of 64W. Moderate
seas prevail across the Atlantic as well, with the exception of
areas S of 25N and E of 56W, where seas are 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front currently in the W atlantic will
continue moving E while weakening. A second cold front will move
off the NE Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas Sun morning, from 31N60W to the Windward Passage
Mon morning, and from 31N50W to 26N60W with tail stalling to the
central Bahamas Tue morning. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast
ahead of the front N of 29N Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds
following the front will affect the Bahamas offshore waters Mon
night through Tue night as strong high pressure builds N of the
stationary portion of the front. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop across the NE Florida offshore waters
Tue night into Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the NW offshore waters Wed night.

$$
ERA
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287
AXNT20 KNHC 131037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15W and continues southwestward to
01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to the coast of Brazil
along 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted S of 04N from the Gulf of Guinea near 00W to 23W, and S of
04.5N between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A 1018 mb high is centered just
offshore of the W coast of Florida near Venice, and is part of the
western portions of a west Atlantic ridge. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas
supports moderate southerly winds off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts, while fresh E-SE winds are found off Veracruz and
Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, southerly return flow over the western basin
will weaken today as a weak front approaches SE Texas and stalls.
Southerly winds will then increase to fresh to strong speeds
across most of the basin Fri, then to strong Fri night. The cold
front will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, reaching from the
Florida Panhandle to just S of Veracruz, Mexico by Sun morning. A
reinforcing push will advance the front SE of the basin by early
Mon, with high pressure settling over the northern basin Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of a stationary front have dissipated over the NW
Caribbean, but remain along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Scattered showers are occurring along and south of the front from
the Mona Passage to south of the Dominican Republic. A ridge
across the western Atlantic is centered on a 1020 mb high located
northeast of the Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient is
forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean waters S of 13N. These winds sustain seas of
4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and slight to
moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean, Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the weakening frontal boundary along the
southern coast of Hispaniola is expected to dissipate today.
Moderate northwesterly swell will move through the Atlantic
passages and into the NE Caribbean this morning through early
Fri. Weak high pressure northeast of the Bahamas will shift slowly northeastward through Fri to support pulsing fresh to strong
trades off northern Colombia, while moderate to fresh NE to E
winds pulse near the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic. Similar winds will pulse off eastern Honduras, becoming
fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early Sun. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun night into Mon, with
increasing winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to
reach from central Cuba to northern Belize by Mon evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N51W and
continues southwestward to southeastern Hispaniola. Satellite
imagery depict scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm
ahead of the front, N of 24N. Overnight satellite scatterometer
data captured fresh to near gale-force SW-W winds north of 22N
and between 41W and 65W. Seas in these waters are 8-15 ft, with
the highest seas noted near 31N55W. However, mariners should be
aware that gale-force winds gusts are likely occurring with the
strongest storms. Behind the front fresh to strong NW to W winds
prevail N of 26N and E of 65W, where seas are 10 to 14 ft in W to
NW swell. Moderate N to NW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in NW
swell cover the remainder of the area behind the front to 70W.

A 1020 mb high pressure system dominates the remainder of the SW
North Atlantic, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas west of 70W. In the rest of the central and eastern
Atlantic, a cold front stretches from the coast of Morrocco near
28N13W to 23N30W, becoming a stationary front to 24N44W.
Satellite scatterometer wind data showed fresh to strong westerly
winds north of 28N and east of 30W. Seas in the area described
are 8-17 ft in NW swell, with the highest seas occurring near
30N19W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are
present north of 23N and east of 41W. Elsewhere to the south,
broad ridging supports moderate to fresh E to NE trade winds and
moderate to locally rough seas, especially between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the African mainland.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front extending into Hispaniola
will move slowly SE and reach from 24N55W to near the NW coast of
Puerto Rico by this evening, then weaken from 22N55W to the
northern Mona Passage Fri. Large NW to W swell behind the front
will shift east and southeastward through Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Winds are
forecast to increase north of 21N this weekend as the pressure
gradient tightens between the remnants of the cold front and
strong high pressure to the N. These winds will support building
seas across most of the basin. The next cold front will push off
the SE United States coast early Mon, reaching from 31N73W to the
central Bahamas by Mon evening.

$$
Stripling
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359
AXNT20 KNHC 140955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea, Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 00N21W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to below the Equator to near the
coast of Brazil. Numerous clusters of strong convection are
over the coastal waters of Africa mainly E of 15W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 02N and W of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward to the eastern Gulf. A
weak trough is over the southeastern Gulf extending from near
25N81W to 24N82W. No significant convection is occurring with the
trough. Otherwise, the gradient in place is allowing for gentle
to moderate southerly winds over the basin, except for moderate
to fresh northeast to east winds near the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are in the range of 1-3 ft, except for 2-4 ft in
NW Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to slide E today
as low pressure continue to build over the remainder basin ahead
of the next front. Southerly moderate to fresh winds will expand
across the remaining basin today, then increase to strong by
tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the NW
Gulf by Sat morning, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and move E of the Gulf Mon
morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the
northern basin Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening frontal boundary extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward to over the British Virgin Islands. A weak pressure
pattern in place is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds
for most locations of the basin, except for fresh to strong
northeast trade winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela, and mostly
fresh trade winds elsewhere south of 16N between 67W and 78W. Seas
range from 4-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean to lower seas
of 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is occurring
across the basin.

For the forecast, the tail of the stationary front will start
lifting through the weekend while dissipating. High pressure NE of
the Bahamas will shift slowly NE through Sun night to support
pulsing fresh to strong trades off NW Colombia, and moderate to
fresh NE to E winds in the Windward Passage and south of the
Dominican Republic. Winds will also pulse off eastern Honduras,
becoming fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early
Sun. Rough seas are expected with strongest winds. A cold front
will approach the Yucatan Channel Mon morning, with increasing
winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to reach from
eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, and from the Windward
Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N42W
southwestward to 22N57W, where it transitions into a stationary
frontal boundary to the British Virgin Islands. Scattered showers
are noted along the cold front. Weak high pressure is west of the
front. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 27N between
35W and 53W. Seas with these winds are 8-14 ft. Fresh northwest to
north winds are west of the front to near 64W along with seas of
8-12 ft in west to northwest swell. Lower seas of 3 ft or less are
in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high center is analyzed at
28N31W. This feature covers the eastern Atlantic north of 11N and
east of the above described cold front. Fresh to strong northwest
to north winds are north of 26N and east of 21W. Seas with these
winds are 8-12 ft in northwest swell. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are elsewhere north of 19N and east of 25N, with seas of
7-9 ft in northwest swell. Elsewhere, northeast to east trade
winds are of gentle to moderate speeds. Seas are observed to be
generally 4-6 ft with these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough to very rough seas are ongoing W of the front between 38W
and 60W. The tail end of the front will lift N through the weekend
while weakening. Large NW to W swell behind the front will shift
E through today. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east
through Fri as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in
the wake of the front. Winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong
speeds again north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend as
the pressure gradient tightens between the remnants of the front
and strong high pressure to the north. These winds will support
building rough seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a
strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast early
Mon preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. The front will
reach from 31N70W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Tue
morning.

$$
ERA
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278
AXNT20 KNHC 270832
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05.5N09.5W and
extends SW to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02S43W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 06N between 07W and 12W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04S to 04N between 31W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the northern waters, anchored by a
1022 mb high located offshore the Florida panhandle. A surface
trough is west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds west of
the Yucatan peninsula, where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Light
winds, and seas of 2 ft or less are in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure will support an increase
of winds to moderate to fresh across the NW portion today. Winds
over the NW Gulf will further increase to fresh to strong tonight
into Fri while expanding in coverage before beginning to diminish
early Sat. Seas generated by these winds will build to around 10
ft. A weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf late Sun night
into early next week, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate
ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, are over the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere E of 80W. Over the western Caribbean, moderate
winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted.

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale force
speeds at night and early morning through at least the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba,
in the Windward Passage, and over the waters between Cuba tonight
through Fri night. Similar winds will develop offshore central
Honduras and south of Hispaniola tonight through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week. Mainly moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere, except diminishing to light to gentle in
the lee of Cuba late in the weekend. Northerly swell may impact
the Atlantic Passages this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of
the trough. A weak cold front extends from 31N67W to 27N72W.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are west of the
trough. A 1019 mb low is centered near 27.5N26W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the NE semicircle of the low. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 1-12 ft are within 210 nm NW of the
low. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion
waters with fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, prevailing.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move across
the northern waters through Sat. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front, bringing an increase in winds across much of
the waters south of 29N by the end of the week and into the
weekend. Rough seas will build across these waters as a result.
Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the weekend as the
high shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off
the SE United States coast by early Tue.

$$
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700
AXNT20 KNHC 281008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W and continues SW to near 04N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N20W to 02.5S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring from the equator to 05N between
18W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 00N
to 03N between 26W and 40W, and from 00N to 05N between 40W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge extending
across Florida into the Gulf region while a surface trough is off
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds
across most of the basin, accompanied by moderate to rough seas.
An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms is noted over the NW
Gulf, mainly N of 25N and W of 95W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also affecting the west-central Gulf. This
convective activity is associated with a vigorous mid to upper
level trough moving across the region.

For the forecast, as the above mentioned high pressure moves
eastward across the Atlantic, winds will diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds during the upcoming weekend. Seas will subside below
8 ft by Sat night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected
near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening
hours due to local effects. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf by Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico
by Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, in the Gulf of
Venezuela, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate
seas dominate the area, with the exception of moderate to rough
seas off the coast of Colombia. Shallow moisture, embedded in the
trade wind flow is moving westward across the region, producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the
Colombian low will support pulsing winds near gale force at night
and early morning hours through Sun night into Mon morning. Fresh
to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage
will persist through tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will
prevail elsewhere. NE swell will impact the Atlantic Passages this
weekend building seas to around 8 f.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 25N70W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active within 180 nm ahead of the front, and near
a pre-frontal trough that extends from 27N58W to 21N65W. Fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the waters
west of the trough/front. The front and the pre-frontal trough
break up the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic, anchored by a
1029 mb high pressure cell off the Carolinas, and a 1035 mb high
pressure area localed SW of the Azores near 37N36W. This pattern
supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across much
of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W and 60W.
Outside of this large region, NE to E winds are moderate to locally
fresh with prevailing moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move SE across
the forecast waters through late Sat while weakening. Expect fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas of up to 12 ft in the wake
of the front. High pressure will follow the front. Winds and seas
will start to decrease later in the weekend as the high pressure
shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off the
SE United States coast by early Tue.

$$
GR
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459
AXNT20 KNHC 291011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to near
03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01N30W to 03S44W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator
to 06N between 10W and 20W, and from 00N to 03N between 20W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level low continues to move across the lower
Mississippi Valley supporting a squall line in the north central
Gulf, and additional thunderstorms over parts of Louisiana. A
surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic near Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over
Mexico is supporting a large area of fresh to strong E to SE winds
across most of the basin, including the Straits of Florida where
scatterometer data indicate winds of 25 to 30 kt. Recent buoy
observations and altimeter data confirm the presence of moderate
to rough seas within these winds. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely
occurring in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the squall line will likely weaken through the
morning. The surface high pressure will drift slowly eastward across
the western Atlantic this weekend, allowing winds to diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds by this afternoon, with seas then subsiding
below 8 ft by late today. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico
by Tue morning before dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, in the Gulf of
Venezuela, in the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba, and across
the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the pressure
gradient between high pressure located over the western Atlantic
near Bermuda and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate
seas dominate the area, with the exception of moderate to rough
seas off the coast of Colombia. Patches of low level moisture,
embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the
region, producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the high pressure located near Bermuda will
drift slowly eastward through the weekend, and combine with the
Colombian low to support winds pulsing to near gale force at night
and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through
Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the
Windward Passage will persist through this morning. Similar wind
speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola
through early next week, and across the eastern Caribbean through
Mon morning. Large E swell will impact the Tropical Atlantic
waters and Caribbean Passages this weekend through Wed, building
seas 8 to 10 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N48W, and
continues SW to 24N60W where it becomes a stationary front and
extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few clusters of
showers and thunderstorms are noted near the frontal boundary.
Recent scatterometer and altimeter data indicate a large area of
strong to near-gale force winds NW of the front, with seas up to
13 ft in the open waters outside of the Bahamas. High pressure of
1030 mb located near Bermuda follows the front. Farther east, a
1008 mb low pressure is spinning west of the Canary Islands near
27N23W. This low is producing some shower activity, strong to near
gale force winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of 24N between
21W and 25W based on altimeter data. Fresh trade winds and seas to
8 to 9 ft are noted in the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Moderate
winds and seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure located near the
Bermuda will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, as the
front moves SE and gradually weakens, and becomes E to W aligned
along about 22N-23N by late today. Expect fresh to strong NE to E
winds and seas up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will
start to decrease tonight through Sun as the high pressure shifts
eastward of Bermuda and weakens through the middle of next week.
Another cold front will move off the SE United States coast by
early Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed.

$$
GR
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289
AXNT20 KNHC 011005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea near 11N15W and southwestward to near 03N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03S30W to near coast of Brazil
at 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 03N
between 05W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A portion of a stationary front extends over the coast of Texas.
To the SW, the typical thermal trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge extends from the
western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas
along the northern western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but
mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the
Gulf. Platforms over the northwestern and north-central Gulf are
again indicating areas of sea fog, with visibility of 2 to 4 miles.

For the forecast, the surface trough prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula
with fresh SE to NE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Areas of
dense fog has developed in the NW Gulf, with visibilities below 1
sm expected at times through the morning hours. A similar pattern
is expected tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE to S winds will
develop tonight across much of the basin west of 85W, as the
pressure gradient tightens in the area. Building rough seas are
expected in this region Wed morning through late week. East of
85W, moderate SE winds tonight will strengthen to fresh to strong
speeds Wed into Thu, including through the Florida Straits.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the
area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of
80W. Moderate to fresh winds are found over the western
Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the
4-6 ft range west of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse
tonight offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through
Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to near-gale force Wed
through the weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between
the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western
Atlantic. Very rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras today,
then winds will increase to near-gale force speeds and rough seas
develop for the second half of the week. Large E swell will
continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean
Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trade winds, with strong pulses, are expected
across the remainder of the Caribbean through Wed, then widespread
fresh to strong winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into
the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Thunderstorms associated with a mid level short wave trough moving
across the southeastern United States are regenerating over the
Gulf Stream, mainly between 70W-77W. Farther east, broad high
pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1032
mb high center that is located over the north- central Atlantic
near 36N45W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west
of 42W. A cold front is moving through the central Atlantic into
the eastern Atlantic is just reaching 30N between 33W and 43W. No
significant weather is occurring with this front. Winds are 20 kt
or less near the front, however, rough seas in long-period NW
swell follow the front. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east
of about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft
are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds and rough
seas will continue through this morning north of 30N well off the
coast of Florida to 70W, as the pressure gradient strengthens
between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure
moving through the eastern United States. A cold front associated
with the low pressure system will push offshore of the
southeastern U.S. today, and winds behind the front will turn to
the W and weaken in its wake. Elsewhere, high pressure over the
central Atlantic will drift slowly eastward today, and fresh to
strong trade winds will pulse along the periphery of the ridge,
mainly south of 25N. Rough seas will accompany these winds. High
pressure will develop over the western Atlantic by Wed. A
tightening pressure gradient between the high and the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas
across the waters south of 27N, including through the Atlantic
Passages into the Caribbean.

$$
ERA
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721
AXNT20 KNHC 111006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 08N13W to 04N16W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04S38W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 08N and E of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf near
27N91W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are observed on the
periphery of the high pressure. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in these
areas. Gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No
significant convection is observed at this time. Areas of smoke
due to agricultural fires onshore are noted off Tampico in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, tranquil weather will prevail through this morning. A
weak cold front will move through the E Gulf this afternoon
through Sat. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow the front
over the NE Gulf tonight into Sat before diminishing. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front with moderate to
fresh S return flow developing over the W Gulf Sun and Mon before diminishing.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Jamaica,
then a trough continues from that point to 12N82W. Drier air is
noted west of the front/trough. Moderate to fresh N winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are noted west of the front. Moderate to fresh E
trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident over the eastern
Caribbean. Broad upper troughing across the northwest Caribbean
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off Colombia and
eastern Panama.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to
strong N winds will persist off Nicaragua through the weekend
before diminishing on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades
will prevail in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend
before strengthening early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from west of Bermuda to E Cuba. West
of the front, 5 to 7 ft seas and moderate to fresh NE winds are
noted. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to N winds
and 8 to 9 ft N swell are noted north of a stationary front along
17N. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and are noted elsewhere with
5 to 7 ft seas, except for 8 to 9 ft seas over the tropical
Atlantic south of 15N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front over western
Atlantic will dissipate today. The next cold front will move off
the coast of Florida tonight. The front will progress across the
forecast waters, followed by fresh W to NW winds north of 29N Sat
into Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front by
early next week.

$$
ERA
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522
AXNT20 KNHC 121041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from south of 04N and between 25W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from 27N82W to 25N91W. Scattered
showers are noted ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds and moderate seas prevail over much of the eastern half of
the Gulf, especially east of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are found west of 90W.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will continue to move
through the E Gulf through today. Fresh NW to N winds will follow
the front over the NE Gulf through today before diminishing to
moderate on Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front
with moderate to fresh S return flow developing over the W Gulf
Sun and Mon before diminishing.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to a 1008 mb
low pres off NW Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture and
divergence aloft continues to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, affecting Hispaniola, eastern Cuba,
Jamaica and northern Colombia. The rainfall could be locally
significant, resulting in flash flooding. The moderate pressure
gradient between this surface trough and high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico allows for fresh to strong northerly winds to the
west of the surface boundary, especially off Nicaragua. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh breezes and seas of
2-5 ft are found in the remainder of the NW and SE Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds off Nicaragua will
continue through the weekend before diminishing on Mon. Fresh to
strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola Sun night through Tue as a
high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the
area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the
south-central Caribbean into the weekend before strengthening to
strong by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front has entered the SW North Atlantic, extending
from near 31N76W to 28N80W. To the southeast, a surface trough is
analyzed from 29N77W to 24N81W. Farther east, a surface trough is
from 31N67W to a 1014 mb low near 22N72W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails in the vicinity of all these features, mainly
W of 64W. Moderate seas and moderate to fresh winds are noted in
this area.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
broad subtropical ridge centered near 37N43W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are present between 35W and 65W. Seas in these
waters are in the moderate range. Farther east, moderate to fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue to
move off the coast of Florida today. The front will progress
across the forecast waters, with moderate to fresh winds on either
side of the front north of 25N, reaching strong speeds E of the
front and N of 29N by Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front. Another weak cold front may enter the NW waters Tue
night with moderate to fresh winds on either side of the front.

$$
ERA

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