• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1988

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 18 20:52:34 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 182051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182051=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-182215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1988
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

    Areas affected...southeast Iowa...far northeast Missouri...and
    northwest Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 182051Z - 182215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage is increasing across southeast Iowa and
    vicinity. A watch is possible late this afternoon into the early
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed across southeast Iowa
    where 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE is present amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints
    and temperatures in the 90s. The DVN VWP shows around 30-40 knots of
    mid-level flow (the upper bounds which are significantly stronger
    than most of the guidance). If this is representative of the
    environment, more organized storms may be possible this afternoon
    into the early afternoon. Trends will be monitored across this
    region and a severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued if a
    more organized severe weather threat appears imminent.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ScVA2Le0d8XzPKyKXvndirl6KjxI8BfCqhwrfwa9BP0Ii0xe56g7xa74l5O6WKEpca_EaDpC= 3Hgt1cyLfg9BzKXev8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40849372 41569260 42059154 41989039 42038957 41638918
    40928987 40199104 39929224 40849372=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)