AXAU01 APRF 221911
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1910 UTC 22/03/2022

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 108.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (217 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 967 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 23/0000: 18.1S 108.1E: 040 (075): 070 (130): 971
+12: 23/0600: 18.4S 107.7E: 055 (105): 060 (110): 977
+18: 23/1200: 18.7S 107.4E: 065 (115): 055 (100): 982
+24: 23/1800: 19.0S 107.2E: 070 (125): 050 (095): 986
+36: 24/0600: 20.0S 106.7E: 070 (125): 040 (075): 992
+48: 24/1800: 21.8S 106.6E: 100 (185): 035 (065): 996
+60: 25/0600: 24.5S 107.5E: 150 (275): 035 (065): 996
+72: 25/1800: 27.0S 109.2E: 190 (350): 035 (065): 994
+96: 26/1800: 28.4S 111.7E: 250 (465): 040 (075): 987
+120: 27/1800: 27.4S 111.2E: 360 (660): 040 (075): 986
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Charlotte has weakened, with the eye becoming more intermittent and less easily identifiable.

Charlotte is moving slowly to the southwest with recent movement about 5 knots. CIMSS indicating moderate northerly shear of 15 to 20 knots with a tightening temperature gradient in northern quadrants on recent satellite imagery. The upper circulation is likely slightly displaced to the south southeast of the low level centre.

Dvorak analysis: embedded centre pattern white or colder surround gives DT=5.0. Weakening trend gives MET=4.5 PAT=4.0. FT=5.0 based on DT, and CI=5.0. NOAA ADT [21S] has CI of 3.9 but has struggled over the last 12 hours to identify the appropriate Scene Type pattern. Recent ASCAT indicates 55 knots in eastern quadrant, however hasn't captured the system centre and underestimates current intensity. Intensity estimated at 80 knots based on Dvorak CI.

Charlotte continues to move into a less favourable environment with wind shear and dry air intruding from the north, especially as it approaches an upper trough to the southwest. Hence weakening likely to increase during today.

Charlotte is moving slowly to the southwest under the influence of a mid-level high to the southeast. This remains the dominant steering influence until Thursday when the track becomes more southerly owing to the stationary upper trough to the southwest.

The system is forecast to gradually lose its tropical characteristics and become sub-tropical from overnight Thursday. Gales are forecast to persist south of the centre, or may even be enhanced. The system may stall off the west coast on the weekend, possibly causing wind and rain impacts for the lower west coast of WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0130 UTC.
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