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  • Pacific-NW: TY Noru R21

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Tue Sep 27 19:20:00 2022
    WTPQ31 RJTD 270600
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2216 NORU (2216)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TY NORU IS LOCATED AT 15.6N, 111.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
    THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
    INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
    INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
    EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
    OUTFLOW. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
    A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
    SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
    FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
    REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
    BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
    OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
    LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    INCLUDING GSM.
    =
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