• Bumbling Democrats' crises begin to play out in early Senate recruitmen

    From Andrew Di Giovanna@21:1/5 to All on Thu Apr 24 06:50:54 2025
    XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.society.liberalism, sac.politics
    XPost: alt.politics.republicans, talk.politics.guns

    Democrats’ panic over what they stand for and whether they can credibly compete beyond the bluest states is already erupting in the rush to
    recruit Senate candidates across the country for next year — a desperate effort to dig out from years of losses that have them far from power at
    a moment they need it most.

    Will Democrats, indeed, compete everywhere in 2026? Will leaders
    allocate money even in tough races, or will they consolidate
    conservatively around their best bets? How will they handle what could
    be candidates who range from being aligned with Bernie Sanders to
    occasionally voting with Donald Trump?

    Even this early out from the 2026 elections, these questions are all
    playing out against the toughest set of Senate races Democrats have
    faced in decades.

    “On its face, the Senate map does not look great, but if this is a wave election, Democrats can compete in places they normally can’t,” said
    Jaime Harrison, who before his recently completed term as Democratic
    National Committee chair ran for Senate in South Carolina in 2020. “The
    goal has to be: recruit a Democrat for every damn seat.”

    Harrison failed in his attempt to turn a red state blue. While he raised
    $130 million, he still lost to Sen. Lindsey Graham by 15 points.

    But hopes of a major backlash to Trump, fed by internal poll numbers
    that operatives say show his popularity dropping, has Harrison and two
    dozen other Democratic operatives and candidates across the country who
    spoke with CNN arguing that next year’s elections could be more in line
    with the Democratic wave of 2006.

    Democrats have three incumbent senators who announced they won’t run
    again next year and anticipate at least one more will follow. They also
    have to defend a senator in Georgia, where Republicans keep running
    strong. Their most obvious opportunities to put Republicans on defense
    are in Maine and North Carolina, the two states that have crushed
    Democrats’ dreams of winning Senate races cycle after cycle.

    And even if they manage to win those three races, that won’t be enough
    to get them the majority.

    That leaves operatives looking beyond prime Democratic territory in
    states such as Alaska and even Kentucky and Mississippi, or nursing
    fantasies of revivals in once-competitive states like Ohio, where local
    leaders are waiting for Sherrod Brown to decide whether he’ll try a
    comeback from his 2024 loss to run for the state’s other Senate seat, or
    go for governor instead.

    And across the country, voters have doubts about what Democrats even
    stand for. “That’s a question I’m getting a lot,” said Wiley Nickel, a former congressman now running for Senate in North Carolina — even as
    many Democrats push for former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter the race against
    Sen. Thom Tillis.

    More than on ideology, voters are pushing Democratic candidates on what they’re doing to push back against Trump and whether they’d support
    Chuck Schumer to remain the party’s Senate leader.

    ‘A huge opportunity for us to write a new Democratic Party’
    While strategists draft preliminary plans to blast Trump on the economy
    and thrash Republicans as rolling over for him no matter what, Schumer
    and fellow New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, chair of the Senate
    Democrats’ campaign arm, have been feeling out the strength of
    prospective candidates and working with local leaders to find more.

    But the Senate leadership is not alone in recruitment efforts. Abdul
    El-Sayed, who last week launched his campaign for the Democratic primary
    for the open Senate seat in Michigan with the immediate endorsement of
    Sanders, is just one of the prospective candidates around the country
    whom the progressive icon has encouraged into running. Smaller groups of operatives and activists are forming quiet partnerships to boost their
    own candidates, eager to blow past whatever decisions come out of
    Washington.

    Comparing what he’s hearing from voters to the cynicism that takes root
    in chronic pain patients he has worked with, El-Sayed told CNN, “It’s
    the morass of, ‘Everything kind of sucks,’ and our job is to take it
    down to its key elements.”

    “For too many voters in Michigan who narrowly elected Donald Trump, they didn’t know what the Democratic Party stands for,” said Mallory
    McMorrow, a Michigan state senator also running in the primary for the
    US Senate seat.

    McMorrow said her campaign is about “success, safety and sanity” rather than the status quo.

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    “This is a huge opportunity for us to write a new Democratic Party and
    really put a stake in the ground, show through our race this is what the
    new party can look like and sound like and act like,” she said.

    https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/20/politics/democrat-crisis-recruitment-campa igns/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc

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  • From Nix@21:1/5 to All on Fri Apr 25 02:23:40 2025
    XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.society.liberalism, sac.politics
    XPost: alt.politics.republicans, talk.politics.guns

    U.S. economy will collapse by 2026 on Trumps tariffs, says Morgan Stanley



    Trumps planned tariffs, including up to 100% on Chinese goods, will
    spike inflation and slow U.S. economic growth by 2026, says Morgan Stanley.
    Key industries like cars, electronics, and retail will see costs
    skyrocket, with companies passing those costs to consumers.
    Chinas President Xi Jinping is rallying global leaders against Trumps tariffs, warning they could destabilize global trade and deepen Chinas economic struggles.

    Donald Trumps proposed tariffs will throw the U.S. economy into chaos by
    2026. Morgan Stanleys chief global economist, Seth Carpenter, says these tariffs are a surefire way to drive up inflation and tank growth.

    The plan is to slap a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports and hike up to 100%
    on goods coming in from China. Trump says its all about extracting funds from other countries. Economists say its more like slashing your own tires
    and calling it a shortcut.

    Carpenter predicts a big negative shock if these tariffs hit all at once. Speaking at Morgan Stanleys Asia Pacific Summit, he warned that even a
    gradual rollout would choke the economy over time.

    Tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just the countries
    targeted. According to Carpenter, 2025 will see the start of the fallout,
    but by 2026, the damage will be impossible to reverse.
    How the tariffs will wreck everything

    If Trump adds his tariffs to the ones Joe Biden already has in place, the
    U.S. economy will be hit on multiple fronts. Industries like cars, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, and retail will see prices surge. And
    no, companies wont eat the extra coststheyll hand those right to the consumer.

    Take Trumps proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Pair that with Bidens
    100% tariff on electric vehicles from China, and youve got a recipe for disaster in the auto industry.

    Higher import costs will bleed into companies like Apple and Microsoft,
    which depend on global supply chains. The ripple effect? Price hikes on
    phones, computers, and pretty much everything else you buy.

    The consumer price index ticked up 2.6% in October from the previous year, slightly more than Septembers 2.4%. Inflation is slowing after years of
    chaos, but if Trumps tariffs land, say goodbye to that progress.
    See also Trump says "If I want Jerome Powell out of the Federal Reserve,
    he'll be out"

    The Federal Reserve has been cutting rates to keep the economy alive.
    Tariffs could undo all that work, warns Ben Emons, founder of FedWatch Advisors. Markets might even price out rate cuts entirely in 2025 if
    inflation spikes again. Growth will slow, interest rates will freeze, and
    the economy could spiral.
    Chinas next move

    Trumps tariff hammer has left China scrambling. At back-to-back global summits, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been on a mission to save whats
    left of international trade.

    His message? Dont follow Trump down this path. Xi wants to rally global leaders around free trade, claiming Trumps tariffs will wreck not just U.S.-China relations but the entire global economy.

    At the G-20 and APEC summits, Xi repeated one thing: stop building walls,
    start tearing them down. Hes desperate to prevent other countries from
    jumping on Trumps protectionist bandwagon. The man is playing the long
    game, trying to position himself as the adult in the room while making
    Trumps administration look reckless.

    Xis also been meeting leaders nonstop, from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
    to French President Emmanuel Macron. The goal? Stop trade wars before they start. Xi even pleaded with Europe to drop its tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

    Meanwhile, in South America, Xi is building alliances left and right. He
    opened a $1.3 billion port in Peru and talked trade with Mexico and
    Argentina. Leaders there seem eager to cozy up to China, especially if
    Trumps tariffs cut off U.S. trade opportunities.

    Chinas economy isnt exactly thriving though. Manufacturing growth is at
    its highest since World War II, but the countrys facing a real estate
    crisis and deflation. Trumps tariffs could shave several percentage points
    off Chinas GDP, pushing an already struggling economy closer to the edge.
    See also China orders officials to halt all Boeing orders, next trade war weapon

    Goldman Sachs says this might force China to focus on domestic consumption, something its leaders have resisted for decades.
    Whats next for the U.S. and its allies?

    While Xis on a charm offensive, Americas allies are in a tough spot.
    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has already voiced concerns about Chinese investments in Mexico. Hes hinted that Canada might tariff Chinese goods too, especially in the electric vehicle space.

    Australias Anthony Albanese also emphasized that his countrys loyalty
    lies with the U.S., not China. Then theres the U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Hes trying to smooth things over with China while tackling tough topics like Taiwan, Hong Kongs democracy movement, and human rights
    abuses.

    In one heated meeting, Chinese officials even kicked British journalists
    out of the room after Starmer hit a nerve. Its clear that tensions arent easing anytime soon.

    Domestically, Trumps tariffs could backfire politically. While his base
    might cheer the America First rhetoric, industries and workers will bear
    the brunt. Higher prices on cars, electronics, and everyday goods could
    turn supporters against him, especially in swing states.

    Manufacturers relying on imports will have to cut costs somewhere, and that usually means layoffs. Xi, meanwhile, is playing both sides. On one hand,
    hes pushing back against U.S. aggression.

    On the other, hes trying to calm the room, insisting China doesnt want conflict. During a meeting with Biden, Xi said China wouldnt sit by if its strategic interests were threatened.

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