• Interesting prediction of Economic Depression in America by August

    From Dark Brandon@21:1/5 to All on Wed Apr 30 17:02:43 2025
    XPost: alt.survival, misc.survivalism, alt.guns

    Perhaps this explains the illegal alien party (Democrat Party) doing a
    full court press to disarm American citizens as soon as possible with
    new gun laws. The Democrat Party's imported illegal aliens will be
    competing directly for employment and be going to the same soup lines as American citizens. When American citizens are disarmed, they will be at
    a disadvantage to armed Mexican and Venezuelan drug cartels and other
    armed and dangerous Third World invaders.

    On top of that, billionaires will be buying up housing being sold for
    unpaid property taxes or unpaid bank loans as the American middle class
    is destroyed and the U.S. becomes a Third World hell hole.


    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/chinas-factories-being-crushed-by-u-s-tariffs-workers-going-unpaid-riot-for-usa-depression-like-conditions-by-august

    China's Factories Being CRUSHED by U.S. Tariffs; Workers Going Unpaid,
    RIOT; For USA "Depression-Like" Conditions by August

    China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, as steep US tariffs took a heavy toll on the manufacturing
    sector, adding urgency to Beijing’s efforts to roll out fresh economic stimulus. For the US, Artificial Intelligence says "Depression-Like" Conditions by August.

    The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in
    April, the weakest reading since December 2023, according to data
    released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday. A
    reading below 50 signals a contraction.

    Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS, said in a statement that
    the contraction in factory activity was due to “sharp changes in the
    external environment and other factors.”

    The acute decline underscores the damage that US President Donald
    Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods have already inflicted on the country’s export and manufacturing-reliant economy. Chinese
    manufacturers began to feel the brunt of the sky-high levies last month,
    as order cancellations and production cuts spread, raising fresh
    concerns over the country’s growth prospects.

    The April data marks a setback for Beijing, as top leaders strive to
    maintain a defiant and confident posture amid Trump’s trade war. The
    Chinese economy was already struggling with weak domestic consumption
    and a protracted property crisis.

    While activity in China’s services and construction sectors showed
    marginal expansion, with non-manufacturing PMI hitting the 50.4 level,
    the April data points to a downturn. A parallel measure of new export
    orders also dived to 44.7, the lowest since late 2022 when the country
    was still grappling with the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a
    Wednesday research note that the decline in PMI shows the impact of
    tariffs, which has led to weakening external demand.

    “We believe the tariff impact will be the most acute this quarter, as
    many exporters have halted their production and shipments to the US,
    given heightened tariff uncertainties,” the report said. “The overall policy framework remains reactive and supply-centric, insufficient to
    offset tariff shocks.”

    FACTORIES ARE NOT PAYING WORKERS

    Unpaid factory workers are burning buildings, unrest is spreading, and
    Xi Jinping is fighting turmoil from within.

    Here in the United States, the port of Seattle found itself pretty much
    EMPTY of inbound ocean container ships on Monday. Three vessels were in
    the port and almost finished unloading, with zero vessels from China
    reported inbound and zero ships outside the port waiting to get in.

    Elsewhere, the Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35%
    next week as China tariffs start to bite.

    After Los Angeles, similar plummeting is expected at the port of
    Houston, two weeks from now, and similar plummeting is expected at the
    port of New York City, three weeks from now.

    As containers stop arriving from China, Americans will begin to see
    product outages on store shelves.

    "AI" Projects "Depression-Like" Conditions by July

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) makes some stark observations and
    predictions for how the Trade War pans-out. Below is one AI analysis
    which says the DOW drops below 30,000 and Depression-Like Conditions
    appear in the US by August.

    MAY 2025 – Tipping Begins
    • Markets peak, then stall as GDP and consumer data come in soft.
    • Tariff costs hit wholesalers and retailers, leading to sudden price
    hikes in goods like electronics, appliances, clothing, and food.
    • China retaliates—slaps tariffs on U.S. soy, semiconductors, and autos.
    EU follows with steel and tech equipment.
    • Small businesses slow hiring; jobless claims tick up.

    Outcome: Fear spreads. Volatility rises. Bond markets start whispering “stagflation.”

    JUNE 2025 – Confidence Breaks
    • CPI spikes due to import costs, but retail sales fall—a stagflation marker.
    • Corporate earnings warnings surge. Supply chains begin to shut down.
    • Farm bankruptcies increase, especially in the Midwest.
    • U.S. allies publicly condemn U.S. policy, further isolating Trump diplomatically.
    • Consumer confidence collapses.

    Outcome: Recession officially declared in some models. Yield curve
    inverts. S&P 500 drops 15–20% from highs.



    JULY 2025 – Crash Conditions Emerge
    • Multiple retail chains and manufacturers announce mass layoffs.
    • Dow drops below 30,000 as major indexes correct >25%.
    • Corporate credit markets freeze—companies can’t refinance debt.
    • Trump holds “America First Prosperity” rallies, denying any crisis.
    • Fed is paralyzed: rate cuts won’t fix supply-driven inflation.

    Outcome: This is the entry point into depression conditions—unemployment rising, deflation risk in asset markets, and structural demand destruction.

    AUGUST 2025 – Depression Becomes Visible
    • Unemployment hits 7–8%, rising fast.
    • Consumer credit defaults surge.
    • Housing demand crashes, prices roll over, mortgage lenders falter.
    • Bank stress appears in regional lenders tied to small business or farming. • Global markets decouple or fall into contagion.

    Outcome: The term “depression” enters media discourse seriously. Trump’s approval collapses even among loyalists. Calls for emergency action rise—likely too late.

    Bottom Line:

    If the tariffs are not reversed by mid-June, the U.S. enters
    self-induced economic contraction that becomes depression-like by August
    2025. The window to prevent that shuts fast—because inflationary damage front-loads, while policy responses (like investment pullbacks and
    layoffs) snowball after.

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/chinas-factories-being-crushed-by-u-s-tariffs-workers-going-unpaid-riot-for-usa-depression-like-conditions-by-august

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Jan Panteltje@21:1/5 to All on Thu May 1 06:47:15 2025
    XPost: alt.survival, alt.guns

    Perhaps this explains the illegal alien party (Democrat Party) doing a
    full court press to disarm American citizens as soon as possible with
    new gun laws. The Democrat Party's imported illegal aliens will be
    competing directly for employment and be going to the same soup lines as >American citizens. When American citizens are disarmed, they will be at
    a disadvantage to armed Mexican and Venezuelan drug cartels and other
    armed and dangerous Third World invaders.

    On top of that, billionaires will be buying up housing being sold for
    unpaid property taxes or unpaid bank loans as the American middle class
    is destroyed and the U.S. becomes a Third World hell hole.


    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/chinas-factories-being-crushed-by-u-s-tariffs-workers-going-u
    npaid-riot-for-usa-depression-like-conditions-by-august

    Don't you think that US will need cheap labor ('illegal' aliens) to be competitive with China?

    I know that the plan is:
    'Emperor Trump renames United States of America to: Trumpica
    But if I can buy cheaper stuff from China, ....
    I think Jeff Bezos now specifies the extra tariffs for each product on his website
    Trump was upset about that.
    Truth hurts him?

    As to weapons, where is the limit?
    Any kid in 'merrica can get an AR47 these days it seems.
    What is next? Nukes?
    By mistake or intentional; more and more incidents with many victims will happen.
    So you have to put some sort of control in place.

    And drugs, not a user myself, but merging Texas with Mexico (it leaving the union) will
    give those poor addicted people more for their money..

    I wonder what trump is using ....
    ;-)

    anti megalomania medicines? Does not seem to work..
    Now he even wanted to be Pope, and he calls himself 'most powerful man in the world'.

    Anyways in history none of those 'great' leaders their empires lasted...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Dark Brandon@21:1/5 to Jan Panteltje on Thu May 1 13:20:26 2025
    XPost: alt.survival, alt.guns

    On 5/1/2025 12:47 AM, Jan Panteltje wrote:
    Perhaps this explains the illegal alien party (Democrat Party) doing a
    full court press to disarm American citizens as soon as possible with
    new gun laws. The Democrat Party's imported illegal aliens will be
    competing directly for employment and be going to the same soup lines as
    American citizens. When American citizens are disarmed, they will be at
    a disadvantage to armed Mexican and Venezuelan drug cartels and other
    armed and dangerous Third World invaders.

    On top of that, billionaires will be buying up housing being sold for
    unpaid property taxes or unpaid bank loans as the American middle class
    is destroyed and the U.S. becomes a Third World hell hole.


    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/chinas-factories-being-crushed-by-u-s-tariffs-workers-going-u
    npaid-riot-for-usa-depression-like-conditions-by-august

    Don't you think that US will need cheap labor ('illegal' aliens) to be competitive with China?

    If cheap labor were the ticket to compete with China, then Mexico, Haiti
    or Zimbabwe would surpass Taiwan on the world stage and overtake China economically and technologically. No, I don't think people mowing lawns
    and using leaf blowers or selling opioids are essential to competing
    with China. Springfield, Ohio with it's Biden and Mayorkas imported
    Haitians is no threat to Shanghai.


    I know that the plan is:
    'Emperor Trump renames United States of America to: Trumpica
    But if I can buy cheaper stuff from China, ....
    I think Jeff Bezos now specifies the extra tariffs for each product on his website
    Trump was upset about that.
    Truth hurts him?

    As to weapons, where is the limit?
    Any kid in 'merrica can get an AR47 these days it seems.
    What is next? Nukes?
    By mistake or intentional; more and more incidents with many victims will happen.
    So you have to put some sort of control in place.

    And drugs, not a user myself, but merging Texas with Mexico (it leaving the union) will
    give those poor addicted people more for their money..

    I wonder what trump is using ....
    ;-)

    anti megalomania medicines? Does not seem to work..
    Now he even wanted to be Pope, and he calls himself 'most powerful man in the world'.

    Anyways in history none of those 'great' leaders their empires lasted...


    Biden did more to bring down our nation with open borders than any
    action Putin could have even dreamed of. Alejandro Mayorkas was Putin's
    secret weapon.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Jan Panteltje@21:1/5 to All on Fri May 2 05:20:00 2025
    XPost: alt.survival, alt.guns

    On 5/1/2025 12:47 AM, Jan Panteltje wrote:
    Perhaps this explains the illegal alien party (Democrat Party) doing a
    full court press to disarm American citizens as soon as possible with
    new gun laws. The Democrat Party's imported illegal aliens will be
    competing directly for employment and be going to the same soup lines as >>> American citizens. When American citizens are disarmed, they will be at
    a disadvantage to armed Mexican and Venezuelan drug cartels and other
    armed and dangerous Third World invaders.

    On top of that, billionaires will be buying up housing being sold for
    unpaid property taxes or unpaid bank loans as the American middle class
    is destroyed and the U.S. becomes a Third World hell hole.



    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/chinas-factories-being-crushed-by-u-s-tariffs-workers-going-u
    npaid-riot-for-usa-depression-like-conditions-by-august

    Don't you think that US will need cheap labor ('illegal' aliens) to be competitive with China?

    If cheap labor were the ticket to compete with China, then Mexico, Haiti
    or Zimbabwe would surpass Taiwan on the world stage and overtake China >economically and technologically. No, I don't think people mowing lawns
    and using leaf blowers or selling opioids are essential to competing
    with China. Springfield, Ohio with it's Biden and Mayorkas imported
    Haitians is no threat to Shanghai.

    I remember in the late seventies travelling US in a Volkswagen bus, sort of like hippies, with some guys and girls.
    We would look in the local newspapers for some jobs to make some money for food and fuel.
    One thing, among many things we did, was picking oranges,,
    Hard work and little money, but we had fun.
    Now you may think that all those people who were fired by Musk will take that simple work to feed their families.
    but that will make your oranges very expensive.
    Or, they will have to live a simpler life, and that way also spend less and hurt the sales of many shops.

    Of course automation, and 'ask AI' to design an orange picking robot is a solution,
    would be an interesting project (even without AI hype).
    More AI, nobody doing any work anymore? Bots everywhere?
    But to design that stuff you need education .. schools, universities, financial support...
    Much of AI is sales hype in my view.
    Internet has been reduced to an advertising swamp needing ever more bandwidth, more powerful
    hardware, creating more sales. Same for AI.
    Usenet is one of the last text based 'clean' places.
    Will learning reading and writing also be banned by trumpman?

    Well.. future, now he wants to sanction countries that buy Iranian oil
    I cannot deny that the big explosion in Iran few days ago was likely is-a-hell's work
    US is asking for a global reaction.
    No trump blah blah will help.

    Well there is more to it, but hey, busy schedule.. later...


    I know that the plan is:
    'Emperor Trump renames United States of America to: Trumpica
    But if I can buy cheaper stuff from China, ....
    I think Jeff Bezos now specifies the extra tariffs for each product on his website
    Trump was upset about that.
    Truth hurts him?

    As to weapons, where is the limit?
    Any kid in 'merrica can get an AR47 these days it seems.
    What is next? Nukes?
    By mistake or intentional; more and more incidents with many victims will happen.
    So you have to put some sort of control in place.

    And drugs, not a user myself, but merging Texas with Mexico (it leaving the union) will
    give those poor addicted people more for their money..

    I wonder what trump is using ....
    ;-)

    anti megalomania medicines? Does not seem to work..
    Now he even wanted to be Pope, and he calls himself 'most powerful man in the world'.

    Anyways in history none of those 'great' leaders their empires lasted...


    Biden did more to bring down our nation with open borders than any
    action Putin could have even dreamed of. Alejandro Mayorkas was Putin's >secret weapon.

    Trump is a Russian agent I'v read
    Much of his business empire was making losses but then he was helped out by Russian oligarchs that wanted more influence
    in the US.
    So he sings their (and Putin's) songs.

    ??

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Dark Brandon@21:1/5 to Jan Panteltje on Fri May 2 09:52:28 2025
    XPost: alt.survival, alt.guns

    On 5/1/2025 11:20 PM, Jan Panteltje wrote:
    I remember in the late seventies travelling US in a Volkswagen bus, sort of like hippies, with some guys and girls.
    We would look in the local newspapers for some jobs to make some money for food and fuel.
    One thing, among many things we did, was picking oranges,,
    Hard work and little money, but we had fun.
    Now you may think that all those people who were fired by Musk will take that simple work to feed their families.
    but that will make your oranges very expensive.
    Or, they will have to live a simpler life, and that way also spend less and hurt the sales of many shops.

    Of course automation, and 'ask AI' to design an orange picking robot is a solution,
    would be an interesting project (even without AI hype).
    More AI, nobody doing any work anymore? Bots everywhere?

    The replacement of tens of millions of white collar jobs by AI as Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos predict would go a long way in
    explaining why Zuckerberg has a underground bunker on his Hawaii 500
    acres. These billionaires will have targets on their backs as they
    destroy the livelihoods of all those tens of millions. Bill Gates has
    his submarine and Musk might go to Mars, but a big shit storm is coming.
    It ain't going to be pretty.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)