XPost: alt.politics.immigration, alt.california, talk.politics.guns
XPost: sac.politics, talk.politics.misc

Mass deportations promised by President-elect Donald Trump could have a
seismic economic effect in California — potentially inflicting billions
of dollars in direct damages to a wide range of industries, including
small business, agriculture, construction and child care, advocates and academics said.

The impact could also spread outward to other sectors, including growth
drivers like tech.

The Golden State relies heavily on the labor of immigrants, whether
they’re naturalized U.S. citizens, have temporary visas or are
undocumented. More than 10 million, or 27%, of California’s population
is foreign-born, according to the most recent U.S. Census data. Roughly
a fifth of those are thought to be undocumented; as of 2022, estimates
ranged from 1.8 million undocumented immigrants, according to the Pew
Research Center, to 2.4 million, according to the left-leaning Institute
on Taxation and Economic Policy.

If undocumented immigrants “magically disappear, you’re going to erase
10% of California production,” said Giovanni Peri, professor of
international economics at UC Davis. “We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars.”

The loss of workers only speaks to part of the financial impact of deportations. Undocumented immigrants also power the state’s economy as consumers and taxpayers.

There may also be indirect impacts from the deportations. The loss of
workers in construction, agriculture (including the state’s world-famous
wine industry), hospitality and the care economy would have ripple
effects on the rest of the state, according to Manuel Pastor, professor
of sociology and American studies and ethnicity at the University of
Southern California.

“Behind every software engineer is an army of nannies, food-service
workers and gardeners,” Pastor said.

Pastor thinks businesses are likely to protest significant cuts to their workforces given how tight the labor market is. “They’ve come for the
tax cut, they didn’t stay for stripping away their labor force,” he
said, referring to business owners who supported Trump.

At his campaign rallies, Trump has said immigrants are “attacking” Black and Latino Americans’ jobs. Federal data undermines that claim, instead showing foreign-born, noncitizen Black and Hispanic workers
predominantly work different types of jobs than their native-born
counterparts.

It could be costly to replace those who are deported. In the
construction industry, for example, the median weekly earnings of
full-time, U.S.-born workers as of 2020 were $1,031 vs. $786 for
foreign-born workers, according to an analysis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In California, the median hourly wage as of 2021 was $30 an
hour for U.S.-born workers vs. $24 an hour for immigrant workers vs. $16
an hour for undocumented workers, according to the California Immigrant
Data Portal, a project by the Equity Research Institute at USC, which is directed by Pastor.

Even if Trump does not fully carry out his plan — or takes a long time
to do so — the mere threat of deportations will have an economic impact,
said Maria Lemus, executive director of Vision y Compromiso, a national community-based organization started in San Francisco that supports
promotores, people who serve as liaisons between immigrant communities
and health and social service providers.

“There will probably be a lot of people not going to work for fear of
getting picked up,” Lemus said. “Employers will suffer the repercussions
of this also.”

If a segment of the population goes into hiding, they will earn less and
spend less, she said. Their kids — who are likely U.S. citizens — may
not go to school, either, Lemus added.

And undocumented immigrants contribute not just their labor, they also
pay significantly into government coffers. In 2022, they paid $8.5
billion in local and state taxes in California, according to a national
study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Mass
deportations would lead to lost sales, property and income taxes paid by
those immigrants — including into programs they have never drawn from
because they can’t, such as unemployment insurance benefits, or, until recently, Medi-Cal.

Then there are the immigrants who have legal status and may be in the
state for different reasons, such as for temporary work. During the
campaign this time around, Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance
mentioned that they would also target the Temporary Protected Status
program, which allows immigrants to stay in this country and work
legally if their countries are determined to be unsafe.

The Trump administration may also target different visas that allow
people born elsewhere to come to California to work in the fields (the
H-2A visa), or in the tech industry (the H-1B visa). During his first
term, Trump loosened rules for the issuing of visas for temporary
workers such as the ones who worked for businesses he owned, and
tightened rules for H-1B visas.

The U.S. approved more than 46,000 H-1B visas for California employers
in September, according to the most recent U.S. Citizenship and
Immigration Services data. About 30% were for Google, Meta and Apple.

Employment in industries that could be most affected by deportations
Number of California workers as of October 2024

Chart displaying the number of workers employed in California industries
that could be affected most by deportations. This data is current as of
October 2024 and shows over 2 million workers in leisure and
hospitality, about 900,000 in construction, over 500,000 in full-service restaurants, less than 500,000 in agriculture, about 500,000 in nursing
and residential care, and less than 100,000 in child care 0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Leisure and hospitality
Construction
Full-service restaurants
Agriculture
Nursing and residential care
Nursing care
Child care
Source: CA Employment Development Department
CalMatters
Preparing for what Trump’s deportations could bring
Chris Iglesias, CEO of Unity Council, a nonprofit affordable-housing
developer that also provides social services to thousands of residents
of Oakland’s Fruitvale neighborhood, said people there are alarmed but
not panicked.

Iglesias said there is “a lot of Trump-proofing” going on at
organizations such as his, which serve low-income and marginalized
communities that include undocumented immigrants.

Though President Joe Biden’s administration has also deported
immigrants, Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric is different. He has
referred to immigrants as criminals, “rough people” and even animals.
The incoming president has said he will use the U.S. military to carry
out deportations.

“He built his whole campaign off vilifying Latinos and immigrants,” Iglesias said. “People feel ready. They know this is coming.” Iglesias
said the previous Trump term, plus the pandemic, strengthened bonds in
the community, which has found “different ways to feed and house” its members.

He is also taking comfort in the fact that Oakland is a sanctuary city,
and in the promises state officials have made, including Gov. Gavin
Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta, to fight the Trump
administration. Newsom has called a special session to ask the state Legislature to fund lawsuits against the incoming administration. Bonta
told CalMatters in a recent interview that his office is preparing legal challenges to “a full frontal assault on our immigrant communities.”

In San Francisco, Lemus’ organization has joined with other community
groups to prepare for the deportations.

They are working on getting out information about what people can do to
get ready and to inform them of their legal rights. “They don’t have to open their doors,” she said. “They can refuse to give out their information.”

She also said the fear is bound to be felt by others who could be
mistaken for being undocumented: “I’m a dark Latina. What if I’m walking somewhere and don’t have my (ID)? What would happen to me?”

What business and industry are saying — or not saying
Business and labor representatives from some of the industries most
likely to be affected refused interview requests from CalMatters, or had
no comment. They include the California Restaurant Association, Napa
Valley Vintners, the Wine Institute and the State Building and
Construction Trades Council of California.

The California Chamber of Commerce emailed a statement from its
president, Jennifer Barrera: “It is no secret that undocumented workers greatly contribute to California’s economy given our geographical
proximity to the border, which is why CalChamber has been a long-time
supporter of a national comprehensive effort that provides a pathway to citizenship or legal status for these individuals while at the same time addressing border security.”

A.J. Rossitto, advocacy director for the California Hotel and Lodging Association, said the group “does not anticipate a significant impact to hotel operations in California at this time.”

That contradicts the view of Unite Here Local 11, a union that
represents 32,000 hospitality workers in Southern California and Arizona
who work in hotels, restaurants, universities, convention centers and
airports.

“It’s really hard to hear that there would be no impact,” said Ada Briceño, co-president of the union. “It seems there’s a shortsightedness about not understanding who (the workers) are.”

She said the union is trying to figure out how to support those who
would feel the impact of deportations, from its own members to their
children and families. That includes educating the workers about what to
do in case of workplace raids, or “making sure they’re able to assign
legal guardians to their children.”

Many California small businesses could also be affected by deportations.

Iglesias, of Unity Council in Oakland, said “a lot of our merchants and business owners in Fruitvale, whether they’re immigrants with or without status, are worried about the impact on their businesses.”

Carolina Martinez, CEO of small business advocacy group CAMEO Network,
said “entrepreneurs who are undocumented pay taxes and support the economy.”

Latin American immigrants start businesses at double the rate of other Americans, she said, referring to a recent UCLA Luskin Public Policy
analysis of U.S. Census data, which also found that immigrants started
36% of U.S. businesses last year.

Besides the deportation worries, Martinez is concerned about a possible
drop in government funding that helps small businesses get up and
running: “Business leaders and advocates need to speak up and support
ongoing investments. Small businesses are a bipartisan issue.”

https://calmatters.org/economy/2024/11/trump-deportations-california-econ omics/

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