XPost: alt.politics.elections, alt.politics.republicans, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh XPost: sac.politics, talk.politics.guns
Even if everyone who is eligible to vote in the country would have voted, President Trump still would have won the 2024 presidential election, a new study out Thursday from the Pew Research Center finds.
Trump won in 2024 with just under 50% of the vote, 49.7%-48.2% over
Democrat Kamala Harris.
Roughly 64% of the eligible-voting population turned out in 2024, the
second highest since 1904. 2020 was the highest.
But even if everyone who could vote did, Trump would have won by an even
wider margin, 48%-45%, according to Pew's validated voters survey.
The survey of almost 9,000 voters was conducted in the weeks after the
2024 presidential election. Pew verified whether they had voted or not
over the last five presidential elections using publicly available
commercial voter files. For context, most well-conducted national polls
include roughly 1,000 interviews.
Pew asked non-voters how they would have voted and found they would have
broken for Trump, 44%-40%. That's a big change from 2020 and 2016 when
they said they would have chosen Democrats. In 2020, they said they
preferred Joe Biden 46%-35%. In 2016, it was Hillary Clinton, 37%-30%.
That upends a longstanding belief in politics that higher turnout
generally helps Democrats. Younger and non-white voters, who tend to vote Democratic, are also among the least likely to vote.
But in 2024, Trump's coalition grew – it got more ethnically diverse and younger.
In 2016, almost 9-in-10 Trump voters were white (88%). In 2024, it was
78%.
Meanwhile, Harris' coalition got whiter – 64% of Harris' voters were white compared to 60% in 2016 for Clinton.
Trump was also able to hold more of his coalition from 2020 than Harris
did of Biden's. Trump won 85% of his 2020 voters; Harris won 79% of
Biden's.
About 15% of Biden's voters did not vote, 5% switched to Trump and 1%
voted for someone else. That's compared to 11% of 2020 Trump voters, who
sat it out, 3% who switched to Harris and 1% who went for someone else.
Plus, Trump won more of those who didn't vote in 2020 but decided to cast
a ballot in 2024. Almost three-quarters of 2020 non-voters stayed home
again. But by a 52%-45% margin, Trump won those 2020 nonvoters who voted
in 2024.
When looking at all eligible voters, including those who stayed home,
Trump won 32% of that total population. Harris won 31%.
https://www.npr.org/2025/06/26/nx-s1-5447450/trump-2024-election-non- voters-coalition
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