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President Donald Trump benefited from high voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election more than former Vice President Kamala Harris
did, a Pew Research Center survey published Thursday found.

Trump won a larger percentage of voters who cast ballots last November
after skipping the 2020 election, and the poll found roughly equal
support between Trump and Harris among eligible voters who stayed home
in 2024.

That finding bucks a trend in the presidential electorate dating back
decades. Historical analysis of presidential elections has indicated
Democrats generally have been more popular among nonvoters. In 2020,
nonvoters preferred former President Joe Biden over Trump by 11 points.


The survey suggests that “if all Americans eligible to vote in 2024 had
cast ballots, the overall margin in the popular vote likely would not
have been much different,” the authors wrote.

Trump won 52 percent of 2024 voters who either stayed home in 2020 or
weren’t eligible to vote, compared to 45 percent for Harris. That marks
an increase for Trump, who lost voters in 2020 who skipped the 2016
election by eight points.

The analysis from Pew — its “validated voters” survey, which matches
survey respondents to commercially available voter files to make sure respondents who said they voted actually did vote — has been conducted
for every federal election since 2016 and is considered a gold standard
piece of election data.

Sixty-four percent of the electorate voted in the 2024 election, the second-highest figure since 1960, trailing only the 2020 election.

The Trump campaign aggressively targeted voters who had skipped
previous elections, focusing specifically on young men. Trump won 55
percent of voters who skipped both the 2020 presidential election and
the 2022 midterms, compared to 41 percent who backed Harris. The survey
found that 12 percent of the 2024 electorate was made up of voters who
skipped the previous midterm and presidential election.

The survey found that 44 percent of nonvoters said they would have
voted for Trump had they voted, while 40 percent said they would have
supported Harris.

The finding complicates the initial picture of the electorate in the
days after last November’s election, when Democrats scrambled to
explain how traditionally blue areas of the country shifted towards
Trump. Some Democrats argued that the progressive movement to withhold
support for Harris over the Biden administration’s handling of the
Israel-Hamas war suppressed turnout among traditionally Democratic
voters.

The survey also found Trump’s coalition of voters in 2024 to be more
racially diverse than the voters who backed him in the 2020 and 2016
elections. Trump won 48 percent support from Hispanic voters in 2024,
roughly equal to the 51 percent support Harris received. Trump also won
15 percent of Black voters, a seven-point increase from 2020.

Among voters who immigrated to the U.S. and became naturalized
citizens, Trump received 47 percent of the vote, splitting the group
about evenly with Harris, who received 51 percent support.

The Pew Research Center surveyed 8,942 U.S. citizens ages 18 and older
who are members of the Center’s American Trends Panel and verified
their turnout using commercial voter files that collect public state
turnout records. The survey ran Nov. 12-17, 2024, and has a sampling
error of plus-or-minus 1.4 percentage points for the entire survey.

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Democrats and the liberal media hate President Trump more than they
love this country.

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