• Re: premium phone depreciation

    From Andy Burnelli@21:1/5 to badgolferman on Fri Apr 7 21:47:09 2023
    XPost: misc.phone.mobile.iphone

    badgolferman wrote:

    https://9to5mac.com/2023/04/06/iphone-14-depreciation-vs-galaxy-s23-google-pixel-7/

    Hi badgolferman,

    C'mon... Let's be realistic. :)

    Firstly, you have to consider the "premium" market isn't cost sensitive.

    So a resale-value comparison in a market that isn't sensitive to costs, is
    kind of a ridiculous endeavor, don't you think?

    Hence, the article is not making a realistic comparison to "Android".
    As an iPhone will (almost) always cost more to own than an Android phone.

    On average.

    What that article did was severely limit the Android phones under test.
    It's not iPhone-to-Android so much as iPhone-to-non-cost-sensitive Android.

    There's much more to total phone ownership costs other than resale value,
    e.g., Apple uses non-standard connectors, for example, but even if we concentration only on the phone itself, bear in mind I paid only the ~$20
    sales tax on my ~$200 Samsung Galaxy A32-5G which, let's be very clear,
    will outlast any iPhone ever made, & which runs more powerful software than
    any iPhone ever made (and you know both to be true statements because the battery capacity is huge & the iPhone is crippled in app functionality).

    Even ignoring that all iPhones are lacking basic hardware and software functionality, just looking at resale value of the select few Android
    models which aren't cost sensitive provides a skewed outlook.

    I'm not saying their statistics are wrong.
    I'm saying their statistics are skewed by comparing only 2 Android models.
    Two Android models whose market isn't cost sensitive in the first place.

    And, let's be clear, since all Android phones have more power and far more functionality than any iPhone ever built, it's not a fair fight.

    But allow me to look at the numbers as I haven't read the article yet.
    I'm just telling you the entire premise is ridiculous from the start.

    You don't buy premium phones for total ownership cost reasons, and hence,
    the numbers are basically almost meaningless in terms of comparison given they're measuring something that most of the owners don't even care about.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Andy Burnelli@21:1/5 to Andy Burnelli on Fri Apr 7 22:54:50 2023
    XPost: misc.phone.mobile.iphone

    Andy Burnelli wrote:

    I'm just telling you the entire premise is ridiculous from the start.

    You don't buy premium phones for total ownership cost reasons, and hence,
    the numbers are basically almost meaningless in terms of comparison given they're measuring something that most of the owners don't even care about.

    Hi badgolferman,

    OK. Now I'm looking at the article, even though the premise is ridiculous. We're talking thousand dollar phones here... they're NOT price sensitive!

    Worse, we're talking only _two months_ for God's sake. That's ludicrous.
    <https://9to5mac.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2023/04/iphone-14-depreciation-vs-galaxy-and-pixel-2.jpg>

    The premise (and the so-called 'study') are patently ridiculous, not the
    least because they used only two months and not the least because Android phones rarely, if ever, sell at MSRP and not the least because a thousand dollar phone isn't a market that gives a shit about resale value, etc.

    There are so many obvious flaws in that study, that it's just a sales tool.

    Since iKooks are on this newsgroup, and since iKooks don't own basic adult cognitive skills, I'll outline, for them more than for you, the process.

    Statement #1:
    "Like in the past, the current iPhone lineup retained the most value
    with Samsung˘s new S23 lineup averaging 40% lower resale prices
    and Google Pixel 7 devices 48% weaker than the iPhone 14 average prices."

    Note that is a meaningless metric for a bunch of obvious reasons.
    For one, if we don't know the initial costs of all three devices, including
    the costs of basic accessories and sales tax. For another, we don't know
    which market they resold their old phone in, where premium Android owners
    are far less likely to resell their phone than iPhone owners because, they could buy the Android from anyone but they only got the iPhone from Apple.

    Statement #2:
    "The new report comes from sellcell."
    <https://www.sellcell.com/blog/samsung-galaxy-s23-depreciation-vs-iphone-14-vs-google-pixel-7/>

    Note that we really should look there first, but let's finish this article.

    Statement #3:
    "While the iPhone 14 and Pixel 7 devices have been available for
    about half a year, the one and two-month depreciation timeframes
    were picked as the Samsung Galaxy S23 series just arrived in February."

    Note that throws a wrench in the works as the comparison is between only
    the first 1/3rd of the depreciation period for the S23 so it may affect
    results (depending on how much that 2/3rds shorter period matters).

    Statement #4:
    Two month depreciation from MSRP (which almost no Android phone sells at).
    <https://9to5mac.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2023/04/iphone-14-depreciation-vs-galaxy-and-pixel.jpg>

    Note, not surprisingly for only premium phones, the curves are linear,
    with an astoundingly acute deflection point at _one month_, which is surprising, even to me, but given Androids are often steeply discounted,
    it would seem the curves aren't different enough to have much meaning.

    In summary, the flaws in that so-called 'study' are fatal, in that
    a. The whole premise for a thousand dollar phone is ridiculous
    b. The thousand-dollar phone market is clearly not price sensitive
    c. Since you can get a five hundred dollar Android that's damn good
    d. And they cherry picked the devices for the least cost sensitive
    e. And, almost nobody buys an Android phone at the MSRP anyway
    f. And they didn't look at total costs - only MSRP to resale
    g. And it's not clear _how_ they determined resale value (yet)
    h. They (apparently) only looked at two months - WTF? Ludicrous
    i. The curves are, surprising, not all that different anyway
    j. The shape is very steep, so it's easily subject to manipulation

    That's ten fatal flaws and I didn't even get to the actual study data.
    I don't know if I should waste my time, but this study is bogus (IMHO).
    --
    Posted out of the goodness of my heart to disseminate useful information
    which, in this case, is to faithfully assess what the study actually did.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Alan@21:1/5 to Andy Burnelli on Fri Apr 7 17:24:56 2023
    XPost: misc.phone.mobile.iphone

    On 2023-04-07 10:24, Andy Burnelli wrote:
    Andy Burnelli wrote:

    I'm just telling you the entire premise is ridiculous from the start.

    You don't buy premium phones for total ownership cost reasons, and hence,
    the numbers are basically almost meaningless in terms of comparison given
    they're measuring something that most of the owners don't even care
    about.

    Hi badgolferman,

    OK. Now I'm looking at the article, even though the premise is ridiculous

    Because you don't like the answer doesn't make something ridiculous.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Andy Burnelli@21:1/5 to sms on Sat Apr 8 16:04:14 2023
    XPost: misc.phone.mobile.iphone

    sms wrote:

    There's a reason for that. The iPhone 13 Pro and the iPhone 13 Pro Max
    are highly sought after and are in very short supply. Apple has no new
    ones for sale. Some carriers still have some left over, but some are
    sold out.

    Are there any _adults_ with a working brain on this newsgroup, or not?

    C'mon... I only skimmed the article because everything it said was
    ridiculous from the start, but AFAIK, they didn't even look at the iPhone
    13's, so there's nothing in that article that lends credence to that.

    They cherry picked three extremely non-price-sensitive phone lines:
    1. S23 lineup
    2. Pixel 7 lineup
    3. iPhone 14 linup

    To talk about "resale prices" on those 3 phones is patently ridiculous. Particularly for the first two months of their existence.

    Especially when a MSRP is a made-up number on a brand new phone line.

    Besides, this is their data for those cherry-picked three phone lines...
    <https://9to5mac.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2023/04/iphone-14-depreciation-vs-galaxy-and-pixel-2.jpg>

    Given their factual data, all it "could" possibly conclude was that three cherry-picked brand new thousand-dollar phone lines, which, obviously,
    aren't price sensitive in the first place, and whose MSRP is picked by Marketing, end up with a sales price inflection curve that is steeply
    linear at the first month, & far less steeply linear in the second. https://9to5mac.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2023/04/iphone-14-depreciation-vs-galaxy-and-pixel.jpg>

    Not surprisingly, the curves were extremely similar along all three lines.
    But it's essentially meaningless in terms of "resale value" for God's sake.

    What is wrong with you people?
    Doesn't anyone on this newsgroup own a brain?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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