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Democrats seek upset in Mississippi governor’s race
by Julia Mueller - 11/05/23 4:00 PM ET



Mississippi’s gubernatorial race next week could be surprisingly
competitive as Democratic challenger Brandon Presley seeks to unseat
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves in the deep-red state.

Despite Mississippi’s status as a conservative stronghold, Democrats see
an opportunity to flip the governor’s mansion, pointing to Reeves’s
relatively low approval ratings and concerns about a long-running welfare scandal in the state as he seeks his second term as governor.

The GOP holds a trifecta in the state — meaning it controls the governor’s office, as well as the state House and state Senate — while former
President Trump won the state by roughly 16 points in 2020.

But the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its assessment of the gubernatorial race last week from “likely” to “lean” Republican.

Reeves “still has the edge,” analyst Jessica Taylor wrote for Cook
Political Report, but Presley’s “unusually strong challenger” status has
made the race “a competitive fight with added intrigue.”

A number of factors and recent system changes in the Magnolia State “could create a unique constellation of opportunity” for Presley — the state’s northern district public service commissioner and the distant cousin of Tupelo-born artist Elvis Presley — in next week’s off-year election, said Carrie Archie Russell, a principal senior lecturer and an expert on
Southern politics at Vanderbilt University.

Back in 2020, Mississippi voters repealed a requirement that a candidate
for governor or other statewide office receive both the majority vote and
the majority of the state’s electoral vote to win, a Jim Crow-era,
Electoral College-esque system that advocates said diluted Black voting
power.

And earlier this year, a court struck down a long-standing law that
imposed a lifetime voting ban for people convicted of certain felonies, estimated to impact more than 10 percent of the state’s voting-age
population, according to The Sentencing Project. The case is now under
appeal, according to Mississippi Today.

Given these changes, “Mississippi voters could feel emboldened to show up
and participate in a way that was more like a pipe dream in the past,”
Russell said. Coupled with Reeves’s popularity struggles, she predicts
there could be an avenue for the Democrat to be particularly competitive.

“You can see why pundits and candidates who had taken for granted the fact
that Mississippi would remain a ruby-red bastion at all levels of
government forever might have to take a deep breath,” Russell said.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, chair of the Democratic Governors Association (DGA), told The Washington Post earlier this year that “Mississippi is the sleeper,” citing Reeves’s unpopularity.

A new poll from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, released
last week by the DGA, showed Presley and Reeves neck and neck, with 45
percent for the Democrat and 46 percent for the Republican incumbent in a head-to-head matchup.

The pollster labeled it a “highly competitive” contest with 10 percent of voters still undecided.

A Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon Poll released in early October found Reeves
with a more substantial 8-point lead. In August, a Mississippi Today/Siena College poll found Reeves up 11 points.

Presley notably outraised Reeves heading into November’s election,
according to reports on filings from the third fundraising quarter, though
the incumbent has more left to spend.

In 2019, Reeves, who served as lieutenant governor, bested Democrat Jim
Hood, then the state’s attorney general, to fill the seat left empty by
his term-limited Republican predecessor.

A Democrat hasn’t held the governorship in Mississippi for 20 years, but
Hood notably lost by just 5 points in that race.

“I think that Mississippi is an inflection point for a number of people …
and I think the inflection point is a recognition of: The state can’t
continue on the path that it is. So we got to do something different,”
said Jackson-based Democratic strategist Pam Shaw.

“In Mississippi, we don’t always recognize how close races are. What do I
mean? Jim Hood lost four years ago by less than 45,000 votes,” Shaw said, pointing to Reeves’s narrow win in 2019. “Any place else, that would’ve
been considered close. In Mississippi, that wasn’t considered close.”

Mississippi-based Republican strategist Austin Barbour said he’s “actually
not that surprised” that the gubernatorial race is looking so competitive,
and pointed to Presley’s financial backing from the DGA.

“That’s the big difference between what he’s doing this time and what Jim
Hood did four years ago … and that’s what’s made this race competitive,” Barbour said.

But Barbour contended the Magnolia State is still highly conservative and Reeves still has the advantage. He also shrugged off concerns about the incumbent’s popularity, arguing there’s not “enough out there for a
majority of voters to say, ‘You know what, we need a change in the
governor’s mansion, we need to go to a Democrat for the first time in 20 years.’”

The two gubernatorial candidates went toe to toe on Wednesday for a debate
that turned heated at times as they swapped barbs.

Presley has sought to stress the state’s welfare scandal, which centers on
the misuse of funds in the state. Reeves has been namechecked in the
matter but has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

The incumbent got the “total and complete endorsement” of former President Trump earlier this week — while Trump underscored the support Presley has gotten from Democrats.


The Republican Governors Association also lauded Reeves after the debate
and said “Mississippi is ready for another four years with Governor
Reeves.”

The DGA said it “has had 12 years to take action on the issues that matter
most to Mississippians. And he’s failed.”

DGA Deputy Communications Director Izzi Levy pointed to the polls, telling
The Hill they show “a very competitive race” as “Mississippi Republicans
are sounding the alarm about Brandon’s momentum.”

Mississippi’s significant African American population will likely be key
to charting any path to victory for Presley next week. Nearly 38 percent
of the population is Black, according to Census data, and Black voters in
the state have been noted to tend Democratic.

“You can’t make up 38% of the population and not be important. … That’s
just math,” said Shaw, the Democratic strategist. Presley needs Black Mississippians to turn out, she said, and suggested the Democrat has done
well at reaching out to those necessary potential voters.

Analysts from “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” at the University of Virginia Center
for Politics said in a preview of the races this week that Presley’s “late momentum” may not be enough to get him across the finish line, but it
noted that a runoff is “not completely out of the question” in the
Mississippi contest if no candidate gets a majority Tuesday.

An independent candidate, Gwendolyn Gray, dropped out of the race and
endorsed Presley but will still be on the ballot.

As far as a possible Presley win, “such a surprising result would involve
two major ingredients: Presley would need roughly 30% of the white vote …
while getting Black voters to make up at least one-third or so of the electorate,” wrote Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal
Ball.

As some watch Mississippi with bated breath, eyes will also be on
Kentucky’s gubernatorial election next week, where incumbent Gov. Andy
Beshear (D) is fending off a challenge from Republican Daniel Cameron.

Democrat wins in the two contests have “the potential to be a bellwether”
for 2024 and beyond, said Russell, which could encourage other candidates
to “go for it” in states they might have otherwise written off.

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