Trump and the Dr Strangelove experiment

The president revels in his unpredictability but over time he risks
sowing distrust in America's good faith

Do as I say or I might be crazy enough to blow everyone up.
That is the essence of the Dr Strangelove playbook -- that acting the
madman will scare your enemies into concessions. In the movie, budget-constrained US generals save dollars by nuking the Soviet
Union. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to launch nuclear weapons. But
he would surely be happy if others thought that he might. Nor is he
insane for believing the Strangelovian approach might work. It has
served him well for his first 78 years.?

There is no need to retread how a serially bankrupted Trump
menaced creditors during his casino days, or how supporters storming
Capitol Hill to stop the count became a rallying cry for his
re-election. Playing the lunatic has been a routine tool of Trump's
career. Never give the middle finger to your creditors; avoid at all
costs describing fallen soldiers as losers. Had Trump heeded such
advice he would not be president. In his mind, reasonable people are
clueless about power and negotiating. "It is the rational optimist who
fails, the irrational optimist who succeeds," wrote GK Chesterton. "He
is ready to smash the whole universe for the sake of itself."

Reactions to Trump's first week in office are unlikely to
dampen his instinct for unpredictability. His avalanche of executive
orders, collective firings and sweeping pledge to usher in a new
golden age was meant to give the shock and awe impression that he was
remaking the world. One of Trump's billionaire donors even compared
his first seven days to the almighty. In fact, Trump's big win --
securing a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza -- came several days
before he was inaugurated (or said "Let there be light!", depending on
your grip on reality). Neither Hamas nor the Israelis cared that Joe
Biden had been pushing for a ceasefire for many months. With Trump,
they obeyed in advance.?

Trump can also claim that he shocked Colombia into accepting his terms
for sending them illegal immigrants. But the moral of last weekend's
scrap is fuzzier than that. Trump announced a tariff war and a visa
ban on the South American republic after it refused to accept two US
military planes carrying shackled deportees. President Gustavo Petro
responded with florid insults while quietly sending a civilian plane
to collect them. Cue Trump victory dance. In reality, Colombia has
accepted hundreds of US deportee flights in recent years, which means
Petro did not concede much. Yet other countries might now think twice
before crossing Trump.
...
...
In the short term, Trump's tactics could well yield more wins
than Biden, whose diplomacy looked better on paper than in practice.
It is likely that Europeans will step up defence spending for fear of
Trump's ire. He has said that Russia could "do whatever the hell they
want" with allies that spend too little. Over time, however, Trump
will sow distrust about America's word. Deals will start to dry up.
Large parts of the world long ago gave up on the notion of a US-led
liberal international order, which makes them sanguine about the
ascent of the "ugly American". Yet they will be hunting for insurance.
It would be no surprise were China in the near future to win more
friends and influence in Trump's hemisphere.?

https://www.ft.com/content/c10c0f3a-bf03-4f5b-8975-426cc37200cc

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