Someone has made these predictions
Over the next two years (2025-2027), President Trump's tariff policies - assuming he remains in office - will likely accelerate global economic fragmentation, reshape supply chains, and trigger geopolitical realignments.
Phase 1: Escalation (2025-2026)
1. U.S. Tariff Expansion
60%+ China tariffs fully enforced, covering EVs, batteries, steel, and critical minerals.
10% universal tariff leads to exemptions for "friendly" nations (UK, Japan, India) but strains alliances.
New tech embargoes on AI, quantum computing, and advanced semiconductors.
2. Retaliation & Trade Wars
China
Formal blockade of rare earth mineral exports to the U.S.
Seizure of U.S. corporate assets (e.g., Tesla, Apple factories).
Full ban on U.S. agricultural imports (soybeans, pork).
EU
50% tariffs on U.S. tech firms (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) under "digital sovereignty" laws.
Subsidies for EU automakers to counter U.S. tariffs.
Global South Shift
Countries like Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia bypass the dollar, trading in yuan/rupees.
3. Economic Impact
U.S. inflation spikes (5-6%) due to higher import costs.
China's economy slows (3-4% GDP growth), but domestic tech investment surges. Mexico, Vietnam, India boom as manufacturing hubs.
Phase 2: Supply Chain Realignment (2026)
1. "Friend-Shoring" Solidifies
U.S. supply chains relocate to Mexico, India, and Southeast Asia.
China-Russia bloc deepens, with Chinese firms dominating Central Asia and Africa.
2. Tech Decoupling
Two distinct tech ecosystems:
U.S.-aligned: AI, chips, and cloud computing (Nvidia, Google, TSMC in Arizona). China-aligned: Huawei, SMIC, and BeiDou (China's GPS alternative).
3. Currency Wars
Dollar remains strong but faces challenges as BRICS push de-dollarization.
Gold & Bitcoin surge as hedges against trade instability.
Phase 3: Systemic Fracturing (2026-2027)
1. WTO Collapse
The U.S. and China ignore WTO rulings, making the body irrelevant. Bilateral/minilateral deals dominate (e.g., U.S.-UK-Japan tech pact).
2. Cold War 2.0 Economy
U.S. sanctions Chinese banks (like Russia's 2022 SWIFT cutoff).
China retaliates by dumping U.S. Treasuries, raising U.S. borrowing costs.
3. Political Fallout
U.S. elections (2026 midterms): Voters split on "economic nationalism vs. cost of living."
EU fractures: France/Germany clash over how to handle U.S. tariffs.
Wildcards (What Could Change This Trajectory?)
Major war (Taiwan, Iran): Forces sudden realignment.
Recession: Forces Trump to soften tariffs.
China's collapse: Unlikely but would reset global trade.
Bottom Line: 2025-2027 Outlook
Short-term (2025): Painful adjustments, inflation, and retaliation.
Mid-term (2026): Supply chains stabilize, but tech splits deepen.
Long-term (2027): A bipolar global economy emerges, with U.S. and China leading rival blocs.
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