XPost: alt.politics.conservative, alt.fan.sean-hannity, talk.politics.guns XPost: talk.politics.misc

In article <t2f2mp$3ivp5$62@news.freedyn.de>
trumps bitch <patriot1@protonmail.com> wrote:

This is what happens to bitchy fat broads who stab honest men in the back.

Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s political future had long been in
jeopardy. From voting to impeach then-President Donald Trump
after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol to repeatedly
refuting his baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen
from him, Cheney has been one of Trump’s harshest critics. Now
that outspokenness has come with a price.

The daughter of one of America’s most powerful vice presidents
lost to her main primary challenger, attorney Harriet Hageman,
by around 20 points, based on incomplete returns as of 10:30
p.m. Eastern. Hageman’s path to victory was pretty
straightforward. She entered the race against Cheney with
Trump’s endorsement and consolidated support among most anti-
Cheney primary voters.

But while Cheney’s loss is particularly high-profile, it is not
surprising. Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach
Trump, only two advanced to the general election, four lost
their primaries and four didn’t even try to seek reelection,
retiring instead.

Most pro-impeachment Republicans lost
The 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President
Donald Trump, including whether they sought reelection, whether
they had a Trump-endorsed primary challenger, their primary
result and the partisan lean of their district

IN PRIMARY …
REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SOUGHT REELECTION? TRUMP-ENDORSED OPPONENT? WON? PARTISAN LEAN
David Valadao CA-22 ? ? D+10.1
Peter Meijer MI-03 ? ? D+2.5
Jaime Herrera Beutler WA-03 ? ? R+11.2
Dan Newhouse WA-04 ? ? ? R+24.6
Tom Rice SC-07 ? ? R+25.8
Liz Cheney WY-AL ? ? R+49.7
Fred Upton MI-04 ? R+8.9
Anthony Gonzalez* — ? –
John Katko* — –
Adam Kinzinger* — –
*Did not specify which district they might have run in if they
had sought reelection.

A check mark for “Won?” means the candidate advanced to the
general election.

SOURCES: NEWS REPORTS, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

A question we had going into this primary cycle was just how
many pro-impeachment Republicans would still be in the House in
2023. The answer we now know is two at most. Republicans may say
in polls that the GOP should accept elected Republicans who
disagree with the party, but there is clearly little appetite
for those who have rebuked Trump in this way.

Moreover, in analyzing why these representatives lost — or
narrowly prevailed, in the case of Reps. David Valadao of
California and Dan Newhouse of Washington — there are few clear
patterns. The electoral impact of the impeachment vote ranged
across the ideological spectrum, from districts that lean
Democratic to those that are solidly Republican. For instance,
Valadao hailed from the bluest seat of this group, while
Newhouse survived in a considerably red district.

That said, it’s probably not a coincidence that both Valadao and
Newhouse won in states that use a top-two primary system. In
that format, all voters can cast a ballot that includes every
candidate, regardless of party, whereas party primaries mostly
involve voters who are either registered with that party or
generally back it and who are voting only for candidates from
one party. Still, Valadao, the only pro-impeachment Republican
running who didn’t face a Trump-endorsed challenger, barely
edged out fellow Republican Chris Mathys, an ardent Trump
supporter, 26 percent to 23 percent for second place in his top-
two primary.1 Newhouse didn’t do much better, essentially tying
with the lone Democrat in the race with 25 percent.

Are Democrats really going to win in Ohio and Wisconsin? |
FiveThirtyEight

ALL VIDEOS
YOUTUBE
In fact, not a single pro-impeachment Republican captured a
majority of the GOP primary vote. This amounts to an especially
weak set of performances for incumbents, who in most cases
easily win their primaries.

No pro-impeachment Republican won a majority
The six House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President
Donald Trump and ran for reelection, by their primary system,
number of Republican opponents, share of the Republican primary
vote and primary result

INCUMBENT DISTRICT PRIMARY SYSTEM GOP OPPONENTS % OF GOP
VOTES WON?
David Valadao CA-22 Top-Two 2 46.7% ?
Dan Newhouse WA-04 Top-Two 6 34.1 ?
Peter Meijer MI-03 Party 1 48.2
Liz Cheney WY-AL Party 4 38.0
Jaime Herrera Beutler WA-03 Top-Two 4 34.4
Tom Rice SC-07 Party 6 24.6
“% of GOP votes” is the share of primary votes won by the
incumbent out of the total votes won by Republican candidates,
as top-two primaries have candidates from all parties running
together.

A check mark for “Won?” means the candidate advanced to the
general election.

Results for Cheney’s primary based on 33 percent of the expected
vote reporting at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on Aug. 16.

SOURCES: ABC NEWS, STATE ELECTION OFFICES

It also suggests that Valadao and Newhouse’s survival involved
at least a little luck. The fact that Valadao faced two pro-
Trump opponents, neither of whom landed the former president’s
endorsement, likely made it easier for him to squeak out a
victory compared with someone like Rep. Peter Meijer of
Michigan’s 3rd District, who faced one Trump-backed challenger
and narrowly lost 52 percent to 48 percent. Similarly, had
Newhouse faced just one pro-Trump challenger instead of several,
he may have been doomed, as collectively his Republican
opponents won nearly half of the top-two primary vote — about
twice what Newhouse garnered. But instead, they split the anti-
Newhouse vote, and he survived.

Factors besides Trump, though, played at least some role in
these primaries. For instance, in the two bluest seats on this
list — those contested by Valadao and Meijer — primary meddling
by Democratic-aligned groups may have had an effect on the
outcome. Take Mathys. He didn’t have Trump’s endorsement, but
outside spending by House Majority PAC, an important campaign
arm for House Democrats, ran ads touting Mathys’s support for
Trump. And in Michigan’s 3rd District, the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee spent nearly $450,000 running
ads attacking Gibbs as “too conservative for west Michigan” at a
time when he had almost no outside help to combat Meijer’s huge
spending edge.

Mandela Barnes may be Democrats’ best hope for flipping a Senate
seat

ALL VIDEOS
YOUTUBE
Outside forces aside from Trump also likely influenced the four
Republicans who said they wouldn’t seek reelection. Ohio Rep.
Anthony Gonzalez faced a serious primary challenge from former
Trump aide Max Miller, but he also faced redistricting
uncertainty, reflected in the initial plan drawn by Ohio
Republicans that split Gonzalez’s old seat into four different
districts (it was later thrown out by the state judiciary and
replaced). Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger was in a similar boat,
as his district was dismantled by Illinois Democrats. The same
was true of New York Rep. John Katko: New York Democrats sought
to draw him into a bluer district, although the eventual map was
invalidated and replaced with one drawn by a court-appointed
expert. And longtime Michigan Rep. Fred Upton considered running
again for a while, even though redistricting threw him together
with more conservative Rep. Bill Huizenga, who Trump ultimately
backed.

Yet of the six incumbents who ultimately sought reelection, they
didn’t necessarily enter their races as underdogs. All outspent
their top primary opponents, and they usually had more outside
help, too. It just wasn’t enough to overcome the anger within
the GOP base over their impeachment votes. Tellingly, all six
had faced some sort of official censure by a local and/or state
party committee following their vote against Trump.

Looking ahead to November, it’s possible the rebuke continues as
only one House Republican out of the 10 who voted to impeach
Trump is currently favored to make it to the next Congress.
Given the red hue of Newhouse’s seat and the fact that he faces
a Democrat in the general, the FiveThirtyEight 2022 election
forecast puts him as very likely to win reelection. But Valadao
is in a tougher reelection fight, which FiveThirtyEight’s
forecast currently rates as a pure toss-up.

It’s likely Cheney as well as the nine other Republicans who
voted to impeach Trump knew their vote was a potentially risky
move for their political careers. But in January 2021, few would
have predicted that only two would survive their primaries.

Geoffrey Skelley is a senior elections analyst at
FiveThirtyEight. @geoffreyvs

<https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/with-cheneys-loss-just-2- house-republicans-who-voted-to-impeach-trump-are-on-the-ballot-
in-november/>

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