XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.atheism, alt.home.repair
XPost: alt.politics.trump

If you want failure on a massive scale go check out
Floriduh or Texass, the flagship shithole states of
the deep south.


https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-
state-murder-problem


The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for
Donald Trump has
exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that
voted for Joe Biden in
every year from 2000 to 2020. Over this 21-year
span, this Red State
murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9%
more per capita red
state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per
capita red state
murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in
2020. Altogether, the
per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher
than the Blue State
murder rate when all 21 years were combined. If
Blue State murder
rates were as high as Red State murder rates,
Biden-voting states
would have suffered over 45,000 more murders
between 2000 and 2020.
Even when murders in the largest cities in red
states are removed,
overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were
12% higher than
Biden-voting states across this 21-year period
and were higher in 18
of the 21 years observed.

Republicans have made crime a major selling point
over the past several
elections. In 2020 and 2022, they ran ads accusing
Democratic candidates
of wanting to "defund the police"- a position held by
only a handful of
fringe Democratic officeholders. In October 2022,
one-quarter of ads from
Republican candidates and PACs focused on crime.
Republican-aligned Fox
News aired, on average, 141 segments on crime across
weekdays in the two
months leading up to the midterms. In the week after
the midterm, their
coverage of violent crime dropped by 50%.

In March of 2022, we released a report that found
murder rates in 2020
were 40% higher in Trump-voting states than Biden-
voting states. In this
follow-up report, we studied homicide data going back
to 2000 to see if
this one-year Red State murder epidemic was an
anomaly. It was not.
Despite a media narrative to the contrary, a wide and
widening Red State
murder gap has spanned the past two decades.

In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000
through 2020 for all
50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder's
National Center for
Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on
death certificates
collected by state registries and provided to the
National Vital
Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data
because it's more up to
date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from
counties and states.
All states are required to report mortality data to
the CDC; they're only
encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The
United States Department
of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more
accurate. (There were
four states with several years of missing data-New
Hampshire, North
Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. In these instances, we
relied on FBI numbers
from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for
comparison, we
calculated the state's per capita murder rate, the
number of murders per
100,000 residents, and categorized states by their
presidential vote in
the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state
split.

We found that the murder rate in Trump-voting states
has exceeded the
murder rate in Biden-voting states every year this
century. Cumulatively,
overall murder rates since 2000 were on average 23%
higher in Trump-voting
states. For the past 21 years, the top 10 murder rate
states have been
dominated by reliably red states, namely Louisiana,
Mississippi, Alabama,
and Missouri. Even when we removed the county with
the largest city in
Trump-voting states (and kept them in for Biden-
voting states), murder
rates were still significantly higher in these red
states.

And while media reports give the impression that
murder rates are
skyrocketing in blue areas, murder rates have
actually increased at far
higher rates in Trump-voting states over the past two
decades, widening
the Red State murder gap from a low of 9% in 2003 and
2004 to a high of
44% in 2019, before falling to 43% in 2020. Since
2000, murder rates have
increased 39.4% in red states and just 13.4% in blue
states.

There is a media and political narrative that crime
is a Democratic
problem, occurring mostly in big blue cities and
fueled by lax policies.
While murder is by no means the only crime in
America, it is the most
serious. And as far as murder is concerned, it is a
bigger problem in red
states than blue states and only becoming more so. As
we noted in our last
report, Republicans do a much better job blaming
others for crime than
actually stopping it. The murder rate in Trump-voting
states has exceeded
Biden-voting states every year this century.

Despite the "Democrat-caused crime crisis," murder
rates in Trump-voting
states have been higher than Biden-voting states
every single year this
century (see graph below). In 2000, the murder rate
in Trump-voting states
was 6.35 per 100,000 residents compared to Biden
states' 5.47 per 100,000
residents, 16% higher. At its lowest, in 2003 and
2004, murder rates in
Trump states were 9% higher than in Biden states. At
its highest, in 2019,
murder rates in Trump states were 44% higher than in
Biden states.

Overall, when looking at 2000-2020, murder rates were
on average 23%
higher in Trump states. The average murder rate in
Trump states between
2000 and 2020 was 6.44 per 100,000 residents compared
to 5.23 per 100,000
residents in Biden states. If Biden states had the
same murder rate as
Trump states, they would have seen 5,000 more murders
in 2020 alone.
Between 2000 and 2020, they would have suffered an
additional 45,400
murders.

If Biden states had the same murder rate as Trump
states, they would have
seen 5,000 more murders in 2020 alone. Between 2000
and 2020, they would
have suffered an additional 45,400 murders.

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The top 10 murder rate states are increasingly
dominated by Trump-voting
states.

Solidly red states have dominated the top 10 murder
rate states for the
past decade-some for each of the last 21 years.
Louisiana had the highest
murder rate in the country from 2000 to 2018, until
it was surpassed by
Mississippi. Before becoming the state with the
highest murder rate in
2019, Mississippi held the number two spot for 16
years between 2000 and
2018. Alabama has been in the top 5 for 20 out of the
last 21 years. South
Carolina has been in the top 10 for each of the past
21 years. All of
these states have voted for the Republican
presidential candidate in every
election since 2000. The red states of Arkansas,
Tennessee, and Missouri
have also consistently been in the top 10 since 2004.

A handful of Biden states have as well, but not to
the same degree as
Trump states. Maryland has been among the top 10 for
20 out of 21 years,
New Mexico for 16 years, and Georgia for 10 years.
States often mentioned
in the media as crime havens, like California and New
York, have not
graced the top 10 once. New York has never even been
in the top 25 for
murder rates this century.

Between 2000 and 2010, red states and blue states
roughly split the top
10, with four or five of the states being blue. But
after 2010, murder
rates fell in blue states relative to red states.
Beginning in 2011, red
states have held 7 or 8 spots in the top 10 every
year.

The murder rate gap between Trump and Biden states
has widened over the
course of two decades.

Murder rates in Trump states have been increasing at
much higher rates
than Biden states. Back in 2000, murder rates in
Trump states were 16%
higher and fell to a 9% gap in 2003 and 2004. By
2007, the Red State
murder gap reached 20% and would exceed 20% in every
year but one
thereafter. In 2014, the Red State murder gap
exceeded 30% for the first
time (32% in 2014) and would remain above that
threshold throughout. The
Red State murder gap crossed the threshold of 40% in
2019, when murder
rates in Trump states were 44% higher than Biden
states, before receding
slightly to 43% in 2020.

Over the period studied, murder rates jumped 39.4% in
Trump-voting states
(6.35 murders/100,000 population in 2000 to
8.84/100,000 in 2020). Murder
rates increased just 13.4% in Biden-voting states
(5.47 murders/100,000
population in 2000 to 6.20/100,000 in 2020).

Ironically, as the media frenzy over "soft on crime"
Democrats reached its
peak, the Red State murder gap widened to its deepest
gulch, contrary to
the popular narrative.

Ironically, as the media frenzy over "soft on crime"
Democrats reached its
peak, the Red State murder gap widened to its deepest
gulch, contrary to
the popular narrative.

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Even when large cities are removed from red states,
murder rates are still
higher.

Some on the right argue that murder rates in red
states are higher because
of the blue cities in those red states. Of course,
blue states have more
blue urban areas than red states. That is what makes
most states blue. The
fact is that murder rates have increased in urban,
suburban, and rural
areas.

But to answer these critics, we performed an exercise
to give red states a
special boost. For this exercise, we removed all of
the murders in the
county with the largest city for 19 of 25 red states.
In six rural red
states home to no cities with large numbers of
murders, this calculation
was not possible based on available CDC data.2 Blue
states would get no
such advantage. But even with the largest city
removed from red states,
the Red State murder gap persisted.

Over the course of the full 21 years between 2000 and
2020, the Red State
murder rate was still 12% higher than the Blue State
murder rate, even
when murders in the largest cities in those red
states were removed. And
the murder rate was still higher in 18 of 21 years.

Between 2010 and 2020, even after removing New
Orleans and Jackson,
Louisiana and Mississippi continued to hold the
number one and two spots
for highest murder rates. Alabama, Kentucky,
Missouri, South Carolina, and
Tennessee were still consistently in the top 10 after
removing their
largest city.

In 2020, the states with the highest murder rates
stayed roughly the same
after making this change: Mississippi in first, then
Louisiana, Alabama,
South Carolina, Missouri, Illinois, Maryland,
Arkansas, Tennessee, and
Georgia. Why are Murder Rates Persistently Higher in
Red States?

Crime and murder are complicated issues that are,
unfortunately, ripe for
demagoguery. This paper is not intended to provide
definitive causes for
the growing and persistent Red State murder gap;
rather it is meant to
show that it exists. But here are some thoughts on
why red states have
higher murder rates.

Guns: Gun ownership rates are far higher in red
states than blue
states. Studies have estimated that gun ownership
rates are as much as
twice as high in a typical red state than a
typical blue state. Since
79% of all homicides are committed with a
firearm, it stands to reason
that more guns will produce more murders, not
less. Poverty: Studies
have found a correlation between poverty and
violent crime. Red states
tend to have higher poverty rates than blue
states. Educational
Attainment: Those who have a high school diploma
or less tend to be
overrepresented among victims and perpetrators of
homicide.
Increasingly, there is an educational attainment
gap between red and
blue states as well. Social Service and Police
Resources: Despite
accusations that Democrats "defund the police,"
we found that cities
with Democratic mayors fund police at far higher
levels on a per
capita basis than cities run by Republican
mayors. In 2020, the 25
largest Democrat-run cities spent 38% more on
policing per capita than
the 25 largest Republican-run cities. In
addition, blue states may be
more likely to fund social service programs that
help steer people
away from violent crime than red states.

Conclusion

On a typical day, about 65 Americans are murdered. If
we watch the cable
networks, we're likely to hear about one of them. The
one that is chosen
often fits a narrative that is as familiar as it is
shallow. It may cohere
with a political point a network wants to make -
chaos in Democratic
cities, an illegal immigrant committing a brazen and
lethal act. Usually,
it's a murder in New York City or Los Angeles, two
cities that actually
have murder rates far lower than many states.

These crime stories aren't inaccurate, but they are
curated. And when we
see them every day they create an impression of crime
and murder in
America that tells only a part of the story. When we
released "The Red
State Murder Problem" in March 2022 showing that
murder rates in
Trump-voting states in 2020 were far higher than
Biden-voting states, the
reaction was incredulity. That is because the news
stories we see each day
tell us something different.

But the numbers don't lie. It is our hope that with
this report we can
create a more accurate political discussion about
crime. And perhaps with
a more holistic political discussion, we can do more
to actually reduce
violent and lethal crime. Methodology

We collected murder data for all 50 states from 2000
to 2020. Our primary
source was the Center of Disease Control Wonder's
National Center for
Health Statistics Mortality Data. We chose to use CDC
data over FBI data
because it tends to be more accurate. This is because
states are required
to report mortality data to the CDC while states are
only encouraged to
report crime data to the FBI. As mentioned above,
there were four states
that were missing a few years of data in the CDC
database. New Hampshire
was missing data for 2002, North Dakota was missing
data for 2001, 2002,
and 2008, Vermont was missing data for 2002 and 2009-
2013, and Wyoming was
missing data for 2006 and 2010. For these, we used
FBI data. Using the CDC
data and population data from the US Census Bureau,
we calculated the per
capita murder rate for each state for every year. We
split states into
"red" and "blue" states based on their vote in the
2020 Presidential
election-Trump versus Biden. For each year, we
averaged the number of
homicides and populations for "red" and "blue" states
and calculated the
average per capita murder rate. When we removed the
largest cities from
red states, we removed the following counties:
Alabama- Madison County
(Huntsville), Arkansas- Pulaski County (Little Rock),
Kentucky- Jefferson
County (Louisville), Louisiana- Orleans Parish (New
Orleans), Mississippi-
Hinds County (Jackson), Missouri- Jackson County
(Kansas City), South
Carolina- Charleston County (Charleston), Tennessee-
Davidson County
(Nashville), Alaska- Anchorage Borough (Anchorage),
Florida- Duval County
(Jacksonville), Indiana- Marion County
(Indianapolis), Kansas- Sedgwick
County (Wichita), Nebraska- Douglas County (Omaha),
North Carolina-
Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), Ohio- Franklin County
(Columbus),
Oklahoma- Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City), Texas-
Harris County (Houston),
Utah- Salt Lake County (Salt Lake City), West
Virginia- Kanawha County
(Charleston). The following states had less than 10
murders in their
largest city (the CDC doesn't disclose murders under
10 for privacy
reasons): Idaho, Iowa, Montana, North Dakota, South
Dakota, and Wyoming.

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