The sudden decline in crime after the peak of the early nineties was
noticed at the time. Here's a scholarly article that tries to make sense
of it. His likely causes hasn't held up well, but he has good cites.
https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
"Crime fell sharply in the United States in the 1990s, in all categories
of crime and all parts of the nation. Homicide rates plunged 43 percent
from the peak in 1991 to 2001, reaching the lowest levels in 35 years.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) violent and property crime indexes fell 34 and 29 percent, respectively, over that same period.
These declines occurred essentially without warning: leading experts
were predicting an explosion in crime in the early and mid-1990s,
precisely the point when crime rates began to plunge."
And they continued to fall.
"Most of the supposed explanations listed in Table 1 actually played
little direct role in the crime decline, including the strong economy of
the 1990s, changing demographics, better policing strategies, gun
control laws, concealed weapons laws and increased use of the death penalty."
The 'police strategies' has nice shout-out to RAO home towns: "New York City, which has garnered enormous attention for its success in Žfighting crime, leads the list with a 73.6 percent reduction in homicide. A
number of other cities (San Diego, Austin, San Jose, Seattle) that have received far fewer accolades, however, nearly match the New York City experience. Even the cities near the bottom of the list have experienced homicide reductions of roughly 20 percent. The universality of these
gains argues against idiosyncratic local factors as the primary source
of the reduction."
Why all the talk of homicide? "Homicide is the most accurately measured
and most serious crime and thus provides a useful benchmark." No under-reporting or decriminalization there.
On Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:51:25 AM UTC-7, mINE109 wrote:
https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
"Most of the supposed explanations listed in Table 1 actually played
little direct role in the crime decline, including the strong economy of
the 1990s, changing demographics, better policing strategies, gun
control laws, concealed weapons laws and increased use of the death
penalty."
Why all the talk of homicide? "Homicide is the most accurately measured
and most serious crime and thus provides a useful benchmark." No
under-reporting or decriminalization there.
There ya go....3 strikes and no decriminalization.
Can we get back to those glory years? That was a generation ago.
On 8/7/23 10:23 AM, ScottW wrote:
On Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:51:25 AM UTC-7, mINE109 wrote:
https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
"Most of the supposed explanations listed in Table 1 actually played
little direct role in the crime decline, including the strong economy of >> the 1990s, changing demographics, better policing strategies, gun
control laws, concealed weapons laws and increased use of the death
penalty."
Why all the talk of homicide? "Homicide is the most accurately measured >> and most serious crime and thus provides a useful benchmark." No
under-reporting or decriminalization there.
There ya go....3 strikes and no decriminalization.Thanks for the reply. Care to say what you mean? Homicide is still a
crime. Is three strikes mass incarceration?
Can we get back to those glory years? That was a generation ago.That is the right-wing fantasy: a return to an imaginary past. If you
came of age with rising crime, it's no wonder you think rising crime is everywhere.
There is little doubt that decreased demand for crack and heroin drove
some of the initial drop in crime in the early 1990s...
On Monday, August 7, 2023 at 8:41:20 AM UTC-7, mINE109 wrote:
On 8/7/23 10:23 AM, ScottW wrote:
On Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:51:25 AM UTC-7, mINE109 wrote:Thanks for the reply. Care to say what you mean? Homicide is still
https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
"Most of the supposed explanations listed in Table 1 actually played
little direct role in the crime decline, including the strong
economy of the 1990s, changing demographics, better policing
strategies, gun control laws, concealed weapons laws and
increased use of the death penalty." Why all the talk of
homicide? "Homicide is the most accurately measured and most
serious crime and thus provides a useful benchmark." No
under-reporting or decriminalization there.
There ya go....3 strikes and no decriminalization.
a crime. Is three strikes mass incarceration?
The “Three Strikes” law was enacted in 1994 and imposes a life
sentence for almost any felony after two prior convictions for
serious or violent felonies. The ideals of this law were to reduce
the crime rate and deter criminal activity by doubling the sentence
of a repeat felony. This way, repeat violent offenders would be kept
behind bars. However, the reality now is that most of the three
strike inmates have been sentenced for nonviolent crimes.
Can we get back to those glory years? That was a generation ago.That is the right-wing fantasy: a return to an imaginary past. If
you came of age with rising crime, it's no wonder you think rising
crime is everywhere.
After a 30% jump in murders in 2020...you might have figured it out.
But you're kinda slow.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myths-and-realities-understanding-recent-trends-violent-crime
There is little doubt that decreased demand for crack and heroin
drove some of the initial drop in crime in the early 1990s...
and now we've decriminalized public drug use and addictions are
skyrocketing.
History repeats because of stupidity.
On 8/7/23 10:53 AM, ScottW wrote:
On Monday, August 7, 2023 at 8:41:20 AM UTC-7, mINE109 wrote:
On 8/7/23 10:23 AM, ScottW wrote:
On Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:51:25 AM UTC-7, mINE109 wrote:Thanks for the reply. Care to say what you mean? Homicide is still
https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
"Most of the supposed explanations listed in Table 1 actually played >>>> little direct role in the crime decline, including the strong
economy of the 1990s, changing demographics, better policing
strategies, gun control laws, concealed weapons laws and
increased use of the death penalty." Why all the talk of
homicide? "Homicide is the most accurately measured and most
serious crime and thus provides a useful benchmark." No
under-reporting or decriminalization there.
There ya go....3 strikes and no decriminalization.
a crime. Is three strikes mass incarceration?
The “Three Strikes” law was enacted in 1994 and imposes a life sentence for almost any felony after two prior convictions forIn California.
serious or violent felonies. The ideals of this law were to reduce
the crime rate and deter criminal activity by doubling the sentence
of a repeat felony. This way, repeat violent offenders would be kept behind bars. However, the reality now is that most of the three
strike inmates have been sentenced for nonviolent crimes.
https://lao.ca.gov/2005/3_strikes/3_strikes_102005.htm
"In 1994, analysts predicted that Three Strikes would result in over
100,000 additional inmates in state prison by 2003. Clearly, that rate
of growth has not occurred. A number of factors have probably
contributed to a lower prison population, including the use of
discretion by judges and district attorneys to dismiss prior strikes in
some cases. While courts do not track how often such discretion is used, some surveys of district attorneys conducted by Jennifer Walsh of
California State University, Los Angeles, for example, suggest that
prior strikes might be dismissed in 25 percent to 45 percent of third
strike cases, resulting in shorter sentences for those offenders."
Too bad about the cost: "The aging of the prison population over the
past decade has the potential for significant fiscal consequences."
Also, more trials due to plea bargains still leading to long jail terms.
Can we get back to those glory years? That was a generation ago.That is the right-wing fantasy: a return to an imaginary past. If
you came of age with rising crime, it's no wonder you think rising
crime is everywhere.
After a 30% jump in murders in 2020...you might have figured it out.Didn't something special happen in 2020?
But you're kinda slow.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myths-and-realities-understanding-recent-trends-violent-crime
Ooh, big jump in firearm murders. "Despite politicized claims that this
rise was the result of criminal justice reform in liberal-leaning jurisdictions, murders rose roughly equally in cities run by Republicans
and cities run by Democrats. So-called red states actually saw some of
the highest murder rates of all."
Nice graph showing the early nineties peak, decline and pandemic rise to 1997 levels.
More recently:
https://jasher.substack.com/p/the-nations-crime-trends-for-2023
"Murder is almost certainly going to decline in 2023 and the smart money remains on a sizable and possibly historically large national decrease. Consider the evidence:
Murder is down 12 percent as of the end of July according to our YTD
Murder Dashboard which now contains data for 109 cities. Our sample of
big cities has been very consistent as the year has gone on, showing a double-digit decline at the end of each month"
There is little doubt that decreased demand for crack and heroin
drove some of the initial drop in crime in the early 1990s...
and now we've decriminalized public drug use and addictions are skyrocketing.Pandemic.
History repeats because of stupidity.It is stupid to decriminalize without funding addiction treatment.
It is stupid to decriminalize without funding addiction treatment.Agreed. So we need to recriminalize immediately.
The sudden decline in crime after the peak of the early nineties was
noticed at the time. Here's a scholarly article that tries to make sense
of it. His likely causes hasn't held up well, but he has good cites.
https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
"Crime fell sharply in the United States in the 1990s, in all categories
of crime and all parts of the nation. Homicide rates plunged 43 percent
from the peak in 1991 to 2001, reaching the lowest levels in 35 years.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) violent and property crime indexes fell 34 and 29 percent, respectively, over that same period.
These declines occurred essentially without warning: leading experts
were predicting an explosion in crime in the early and mid-1990s,
precisely the point when crime rates began to plunge."
And they continued to fall.
"Most of the supposed explanations listed in Table 1 actually played
little direct role in the crime decline, including the strong economy of
the 1990s, changing demographics, better policing strategies, gun
control laws, concealed weapons laws and increased use of the death penalty."
The 'police strategies' has nice shout-out to RAO home towns: "New York City, which has garnered enormous attention for its success in Žfighting crime, leads the list with a 73.6 percent reduction in homicide. A
number of other cities (San Diego, Austin, San Jose, Seattle) that have received far fewer accolades, however, nearly match the New York City experience. Even the cities near the bottom of the list have experienced homicide reductions of roughly 20 percent. The universality of these
gains argues against idiosyncratic local factors as the primary source
of the reduction."
Why all the talk of homicide? "Homicide is the most accurately measured
and most serious crime and thus provides a useful benchmark." No under-reporting or decriminalization there.
Concealed weapons laws? "The highly publicized work of Lott and Mustard (1997) claimed enormous reductions in violent crime due to concealed
weapons laws... The empirical work in support of this hypothesis,
however, has proven to be fragile along a number of dimensions... Ultimately, there appears to be little basis for believing that
concealed weapons laws have had an appreciable impact on crime."
The hypotheses for the reduction ("increases in the number of police,
the rising prison population, the waning crack epidemic and the
legalization of abortion") haven't held up but are still right-wing
canon despite the lack of support in subsequent years. The biggest
counter is that crime in Europe, not clearly applicable at the time of writing, has since dropped.
A general comment. Just because crime stats may drop, it doesn't
necessarily mean crime has dropped.
rime stats can be, and have been, manipulated in a number of ways.
Crime stats are based on reporting. If people get fed up with a lack
of response from police or DA's, reportage will drop.
Crime stats are dependent upon the definitions and statutory
requirements. When those change, the statistics will change.
Traditionally, police departments have manipulated crime statistics
to make themselves, their managers, and overseeing politicos look
better.
Just one "cherry picked" example, from The NY Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/29/nyregion/new-york-police-department-manipulates-crime-reports-study-finds.html
After all these years, it's still amazing how uninhibited Scottie Shit-for-Brains
is in demonstrating his utter stupidity.
It is stupid to decriminalize without funding addiction treatment.Agreed. So we need to recriminalize immediately.
Quick question: Are you fucking serious?
Quick follow-up: Shut the fuck up. Consider yourself censored.
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