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Rok Ružič
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Unwavering supporter of Ukrainian liberation. Mar 23

In retrospect, what could the US, NATO, or even Ukraine have done
(outside of granting NATO membership to Ukraine) to prevent Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

The cheapest, easiest and least bloody way of preventing Russian
invasion of Ukraine went by unnoticed by most people back in 1992, when Russians executed their hybrid invasion of Moldova.

Few people know this, but that was the moment, when modern Russia began rebuilding its empire. That was when Russians started with their hybrid
war, frozen conflict policy. The first time they did that in Moldova,
they realized, that this sort of invasion has many benefits. They mess
with neighbouring countries, creating international problems for them, preventing their international integration, scaring away investment,
stunting their progress, all while hiding behind some kind of “local rebels” group, which is always entirely financed, lead and in many cases staffed from Kremlin.

At that time, the Russians learned, that it is really easy to hide
behind a facade of “local rebels”. For people to see through the facade, they need to focus on the conflict, they need to observe and evaluate
the facts, and in modern information/entertainment space, very few
people are willing to do that. At the time, I wasn't aware of all this,
it went entirely by me.

There were many people like me, the majority of the world, as a matter
of fact. This showed the Russians, that they can do this and get away
with it. And they did it again, many times, and most of the time they
got away with it.

No other country protested too strongly, there were no negative
consequences, so the Russians got on with it and started waging hybrid
wars all over the place, they did it again in Georgia, Azerbaijan,
Ukraine in 2014 and it ended up being the big all out invasion of
Ukraine in 2022.

If in 1992 somebody stood firm, Helmut Kohl, John Major of Great
Britain, Bill Clinton, Francois Mitterrand, if any of those guys put
their foot down and said that's enough, the Russians would have tucked
their tail between their legs and went home and they would not try to
pull such tricks again. But nobody said a word, everyone just ignored Moldova’s plight, and now we have what we have. There is a fascist, genocidal, belligerent Russia violently trying to expand their empire.

Russian occupying forces in Transnystria, occupied region of Moldova, 29
years after the beginning of occupation. Because of Russian occupation
Moldova is less developed, less prosperous, less free, less integrated
and weaker. Russians want that. Moldovans don't.

If we (the international community) put our foot down back in 1992, it
would be the cheapest, easiest, least bloody way to avoid the war in
Ukraine.

There were other opportunities after that, particularly when they
invaded Sakartvelo (Georgia) in 2008 and when they initially invaded
Ukraine in 2014, but if we tried to stop them then, it would have been
more costly and more bloody.

And mind you, this is important: if we fail to stop them now in Ukraine,
the next time it's going to be even more costly in terms of blood and
treasure, because the price of stopping the imperialistic fascist
rampage only ever goes up. If we fail now, we are going to have to pay a
lot more a few years later.

Never forget, the price only ever goes up!

Ukrainian people are fighting for their existence and for your security
and prosperity. They deserve all the help we can give.

If you would like to help Ukrainian people, please consider supporting
the efforts of Roland Bartetzko, a notable Quora author, who is in
Ukraine, gathering donations and organizing deliveries to Ukrainian
soldiers. Email address published in his Quora profile. Send Roland an
email, ask how you can help. Usually you can either ship some stuff from
a wishlist or you can wire some money, Roland will give you the details.

Ukrainians are fighting for you. Join us, send them some aid. Together
we can make a difference.

EDIT: I was corrected in the comments, I listed the wrong year.

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Mike Garcia
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Mike Garcia
· Mar 23
I haven’t seen a more accurate, concise summary!

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Emanuel Falkenauer
· Mar 23
This is one of the smartest posts I came across lately. Btw Moldova
escaped me completely as well.

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Ignacio Flores
· Mar 23
In 1992 no one knew that a country called Moldova existed, much less
that it was independent of Russia.

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James Cobban
· Wed
Moldova (or rather Moldavia) was the setting of the final episode of the
TV series Dynasty on 11 May 1989. I imagine the show runners thought of
it as Ruritania, the fictional setting of a series of popular novels, or
maybe Erewhon. When people ask me about it I joke that it lies between Wallachia and Bessarabia.

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Ignacio Flores
· Wed
And don't forget Tintin, the French hero “King Ottokar's Sceptre”
(French: Le Sceptre d'Ottokar) the eighth volume of The Adventures of
Tintin, situated in Syldavia!

Symon Jemčenko
· Mar 23
War in Transnistria between Moldova and Russian units was in 1992 not 1995.

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Rok Ružič
· Mar 23
Thank you, I corrected it. It just shows how invisible that conflict was
to us. Here we were preoccupied with the war in Croatia and Bosnia, and
nobody even heard of the occupation of Moldova.

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Henri Grootveld
· Wed
And in 1992 Ukraine was still a “nuclear power”, thus no NATO candidate.

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John Jones
· Mar 23
You are so right. Thank you.

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Sandra de Wild
· Mar 24
That is a great answer. Missed out on Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan in
the late 1980s, though. As you correctly stated, the strategy is,
however, mostly post-Soviet. (after 1991)

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Teodor Cuculea
· Mar 24
Do you know actually the Ukrainians helped with volunteers the Russian occupation of Transnistria in 1992?

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Rok Ružič
· Mar 24
I didn't. Ukrainians aren't perfect. However, Ukrainian victory today
would make occupation of Transnystria go away.

I understand if you hold a grudge over this, but it is still in your
best interest to help Ukrainians as best you can. If you are Moldovan or Romanian, that much more so.

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XPost: soc.history.war.misc, sci.military.naval, or.politics

On 3/29/24 19:04, Jim Wilkins wrote:

"a425couple"  wrote in message news:KdINN.481962$yEgf.198494@fx09.iad...

At that time, the Russians learned, that it is really easy to hide
behind a facade of “local rebels”. For people to see through the facade, they need to focus on the conflict, they need to observe and evaluate
the facts, and in modern information/entertainment space, very few
people are willing to do that. At the time, I wasn't aware of all this,
it went entirely by me.
-------

There is evidence that the US anti-nuclear movement of the 70's and 80's
was covertly funded by the KGB. They concealed their money-laundered influence by supporting only those locally conceived plans that
benefited them, so the participants believed (and still do) they were in control.

Did you notice how quickly it fell silent after the USSR
collapsed?

Indeed.

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