• Re: several groups are proposing a fly-by of 2017 U1 (1/2)

    From a425couple@21:1/5 to kymhorsell@gmail.com on Mon Jun 3 09:41:47 2024
    XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein

    On 6/2/24 04:11, kymhorsell@gmail.com wrote:
    It was the first confirmed interstellar visitor.
    But was it a rock or was it something else.
    Several groups want to find out and are trying to cook up reasonable
    ways to get out to the fast-receding 'Oumuamua. But it's close to impossible. It's estimated a very fast probe might catch up with it 150 AU out in several decades.

    Man O' Man. It is gone. As in Goners.
    Spend money on looking and planning for next one.

    I'm reminded of the "Starglider" in James C. Clarke's
    book "Fountains of Paradise". It was also an
    "interstellar visitor" that was a artificial intelligence
    scout, ambassador, announcer and greeter.

    Some greedy scientist types realized how advanced it was
    and wanted to chase after it to capture it, but wiser heads
    prevailed.

    from
    https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2023/12/06/talking-to-starglider/

    alking to Starglider
    by Paul Gilster | Dec 6, 2023 | Astrobiology and SETI | 30 comments

    When we’ve discussed interstellar ‘interlopers’ like ‘Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, the science fiction-minded among us have now and then noted
    Arthur Clarke’s Rendezvous with Rama (Gollancz, 1973). Although we’ve
    yet to figure out definitively what ‘Oumuamua is (2/I Borisov is
    definitely a comet), the Clarke reference is an imaginative nod to the possibility that one day an alien craft might enter our Solar System
    during a gravitational assist maneuver and be flung outward on whatever
    its mission was (in Rama’s case, out in the direction of the Large
    Magellanic Cloud).

    Since we’ll never see ‘Oumuamua again, we wait with great anticipation
    the work of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), which will be
    run via the Vera Rubin Telescope (first light in 2025). Estimates vary
    widely but the consensus seems to be that with a telescope capable of
    imaging the entire visible sky in the southern hemisphere every few
    nights, the LSST should produce more than a few interstellar objects,
    perhaps ten or more, every year. We probably won’t find a Rama, but who knows?

    Meanwhile, I’m reminded of another Clarke novel that rarely gets the attention in this regard that Rendezvous with Rama does. This is 1979’s
    The Fountains of Paradise (BCA/Gollancz). Although known primarily for
    its exploration of space elevators (and its reality-distorting
    geography), the novel includes as a separate theme another entry into
    the Solar System, this time by a craft that, unlike Rama, is willing to
    take notice of us. Starglider is its name, and it represents a
    civilization that is cataloging planetary systems through probes
    scattered across a host of nearby stars.

    Starglider has a 500 kilometer antenna to communicate with its home star (humans name this Starholme), and in the words of a report on its
    activities within the novel, it more or less ‘charges its batteries’
    each time it makes a close stellar pass. Having explored the Alpha
    Centauri trio, its next destination after the Sun is Tau Ceti. The game
    plan is that each stellar encounter will gather data and open
    communications with any civilization found there as a precursor to
    long-term radio contact and, presumably, entry into some kind of
    interstellar information network.

    This is rather fascinating. For Starglider is smart enough to have
    studied human languages and is able to converse, after a fashion. From
    the novel:

    It was obvious from its first messages that Starglider understood the
    meaning of several thousand basic English and Chinese words, which it
    had deduced from an analysis of television, radio, and especially
    broadcast video-text services. But what it had picked up during its
    approach was a very unrepresentative sample from the whole spectrum of
    human culture; it contained little advanced science, still less advanced mathematics, and only a random selection of literature, music, and the
    visual arts.

    Like any self-taught genius,therefore, Starglider had huge gaps in its education. On the principle that it was better to give too much than too little, as soon as contact was established, Starglider was presented
    with the Oxford English Dictionary, the Great Chinese Dictionary
    (Mandarin edition), and the Encyclopedia Terrae. Their digital
    transmission required little more than fifty minutes, and it was notable
    that immediately thereafter Starglider was silent for almost four hours
    — its longest period off the air. When it resumed contact, its
    vocabulary was immensely enlarged, and more than ninety-nine percent of
    the time it could pass the Turing test with ease — that is, there was no
    way of telling from the messages received that Starglider was a machine,
    and not a highly intelligent human.

    Clarke slyly notes the cultural differences between species as opposed
    to the commonality of, say, mathematics, saying that Starglider had
    little comprehension of lines like this from Keats:

    Charm’d casements, opening on the foam
    Of perilous seas, in faery lands forlorn…

    And it drew a blank on Shakespeare as well:

    Shall I compare thee to a summer’s day?
    Thou art more lovely and more temperate…

    Well, these are aliens, after all. We have enough trouble with
    cross-cultural references here on Earth. Humans broadcast thousands of
    hours of music and video drama to Starglider to help it out, but here,
    of course, we run into the messaging problem. Just how much do we want
    to reveal of ourselves to a culture about which we have all too little information other than that it is markedly more advanced than our own?
    You’ll find that aspect of the METI debate explored as a core part of
    the Starglider subplot.

    Some have panned Starglider’s appearance in the novel because it seems intrusive to the plot (although I suppose I could argue that autonomous
    probes cataloging stellar systems almost have to be intrusive to get
    their job done). But in the midst of the Starglider passages, we learn
    that the chatty aliens, now freely talking to humans via radio, catalog
    the civilizations they find on a scale based on their technological accomplishments. Is this Clarke channeling Nikolai Kardashev?

    Whatever the case, Clarke as always takes the long view, and the long
    view by its very nature always pushes out into mystery. Consider the
    scale used by Starglider:

    I. Stone Tools

    II. Metals, fire

    III. Writing, handicrafts, ships

    IV. Steam power, basic science

    V. Atomic energy, space travel

    VI. “…the ability to convert matter completely into energy, and to transmute all elements on an industrial scale.”

    On this scale of one through six we can place our species at level 5, as Starglider sees us. But are there further levels? Clarke is wise to
    imply their existence without exploring it any further, as this lets the reader’s imagination do the job. He’s expert at this:

    “And is there a Category Seven?” Starglider was immediately asked. The reply was a brief “Affirmative.” When pressed for details, the probe explained: “I am not allowed to describe the technology of a
    higher-grade culture to a lower one.” There the matter remained, right
    up to the moment of the final message, despite all the leading questions designed by the most ingenious legal brains of Earth.

    When the University of Chicago’s Department of Philosophy transmits the
    whole of Thomas Aquinas’ Summa Theologica to Starglider, all hell breaks loose. I turn you to the novel for more.



    Image; Hubble took this image on Oct. 12, 2019, when comet 2I/Borisov
    was about 418 million kilometers from Earth. The image shows dust
    concentrated around the nucleus, but the nucleus itself was too small to
    be seen by Hubble. We are on the cusp of a windfall of ‘interstellar interloper’ data as the LSST comes online within a few years. Will we
    ever find a Rama, or a Starglider, amidst our observations? Credit:
    NASA, ESA and D. Jewitt (UCLA).

    As I mentioned, some critics fault The Fountains of Paradise for
    Starglider’s very presence, noting that there are essentially two plots
    at work here. In fact there are in fact three plots taking place on
    different timescales here, one of them dating back several thousand
    years, and recall that the voyage of Starglider itself spans millennia,
    the mission having began some 60,000 years before the events of the main
    part of the novel – construction of the space elevator – take place.
    This kind of chronological juggling, allows Clarke to inspire deeper
    reflection on humanity’s place in the universe and I find it enormously effective.

    Wonders fairly pop out of Clarke’s early novels and much of his later
    work. On that score, I likewise refuse to fault him severely because he
    cannot achieve complex characterization. A case can be made (James Gunn
    makes it strongly) that science fiction of Clarke’s ilk needs to put the wonder first. Rich, strange and complicated characters confronting rich, strange and wondrous events may lead to one richness too many. For we,
    the readers, to absorb the mystery, we need to see how a relatively straightforward character reacts. It’s that contrast that Clarke aims to mine.

    That’s only one way of doing science fiction, but much science fiction
    of the 1950s, which I consider the genre’s true golden age (with a nod
    to the late 1930s, as one must) often operated with precisely this
    conceit. And that’s okay, because when writers of greater literary style began to emerge – writers like Alfred Bester, say, with his staggering
    The Stars My Destination (1956) we were able to see complex characters confronting the deeply strange in ways that simply added depth to the experience. Look at Robert Silverberg in the 1960s as an exemplar of an
    almost magical insight into what makes the individual human tick. Once
    you’ve begun on that journey, the field is altered forever, but that doesn’t negate its rich past.

    In fact, none of this subsequent growth nullifies Clarke’s
    accomplishment in the realm of big ideas. Consider him a writer of a
    kind of SF that flourished and fed a mighty stream into what has now
    become a river of wildly untamed ideas and insights. And sometimes only
    Clarke will do. Thus when i read, for the umpteenth time, The City and
    the Stars, I’m again dazzled by the very title, and the first few pages
    take me back into a realm where there are suns not quite our own casting
    a numinous glow over landscapes we learn to navigate through characters
    who learn with us. Like Stapledon’s, like Asimov’s, Clarke’s is a voice we’ll celebrate deep into the future.



    30 Comments
    Alex Tolley on December 6, 2023 at 18:00
    It is intriguing to think that 45 years after the publication of TFoP, Clarke’s novel has Earth improving Starglider’s ability to converse by throwing a lot of verbiage at it to digest. This exactly mimics what we currently do to train Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT. Of
    course, Starglider, being a much more advanced technology, needed far
    less data input to reach its comparable level of conversation.

    But was it hallucinating that response about the discovery of the origin
    of the universe? ;-)

    Starglider is a nice alternative view of the universe compared to the
    enigmatic Rama, with the ETI at Starholme apparently willing to
    communicate with Earth. Is a level 7 civilization more like the
    disembodied ETI of many of Clarke’s novels reaching back almost to the beginning and emulating Olaf Stapleton’s views on God-like intelligence
    – and ending, in 3001: The Final Odyssey, with the merged entity of
    Bowman and HAL9000 helping Frank Poole and Earth from being destroyed?

    Reply
    henry cordova on December 6, 2023 at 22:04
    The ‘Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov encounters have us all excited with the
    prospect of extrasolar visitors. The occurrence of natural objects like planetoids or comets is certainly intriguing, but the possibility of
    artifacts, ships, probes and so on, is really exciting. What can we
    reasonably expect will be the kinematic properties of these objects?

    Clarke’s Rama flies through the solar system at a relatively low
    velocity, the Earth ship sent to investigate it is able to match
    velocities with it and still have enough fuel (reaction mass?) to make
    it to base afterwards, so Rama is certainly not traveling at a velocity comparable to the technological level of its builders. The Earth ship (I don’t recall if it was reassigned to explore Rama, or if it was on a
    specific mission to “board and search”; either way, Rama was within the performance envelope of the Earth vessel sent to investigate it.

    Natural objects traveling within the solar system typically have
    velocities on the order of several tens of kilometers per second. Today,
    our spacecraft achieve these speeds, sometimes a bit faster, by engaging
    in clever gravity assist rendezvous maneuvers. I would expect machines
    from other stars would probably be traveling at speeds greater than
    typical for objects drifting in the general stream of the solar
    neighborhood. This would mean velocities greater than several 10’s of
    Km/sec. The Local Standard of Rest (LSR) velocity of the the solar
    neighborhood around the galactic center is on the order of several
    hundred km/sec, but most of Sol’s neighbors share this general orbital
    drift. A look at the radial velocities and proper motions of nearby
    stars show velocities relative to Sol of well under a 100 km/sec. I
    suspect alien probes would be going faster than the general drift of the
    other “islands in the stream”. There are high-velocity stars (and, I presume, high velocity comets and asteroids) intersecting the galactic
    disk at several hundred km/sec, but of Sol’s 5 parsec neighbors, only
    one exceeds a relative radial velocity of 200 km/sec, Kapteyn’s Star.
    The next fastest, Barnard’s star, is about half of that. Proper motion velocities are similarly distributed.

    I’m taking a leap of faith here to suggest that natural obects’
    velocities would be distributed similarly (except for those coming out
    of the Halo), that is, roughly comparable to the speeds exhibited by our
    two interstellar visitors.

    No one can second-guess alien strategy, but I suspect any object
    traveling less than several hundred km/sec is a natural object. Why
    would a highly advanced civilization launch a probe if it couldn’t
    exceed the LSR drift by at least an order of magnitude? Even higher
    speeds could easily be orbital debris originating somewhere in the
    Galactic Halo. If an intruder zips through the system at several hundred
    km/sec or faster, the odds of it being a probe of some sort are
    certainly worth considering! Anything slower than that is probably just
    a rock or a snowball.

    Reply
    Paul Carter on December 7, 2023 at 2:54
    As a long time Clarke fan, I enjoy The Fountains of Paradise and read it through several times. But I absolutely love the Starglider sequences
    and have listened to them so many times on audio I know them verbatim. I
    had no idea critics actually criticised them, and harshly it seems. They
    frame the terrestrial story IMHO, and bookend well when the actual
    aliens arrive 15 centuries after the Tower is built. I just enjoy the
    wonder of the idea, so I guess I won’t be reading what critics have to say.

    I feel the same sense of wonder, potentially anyway, regarding the (I
    suppose remote) possibility that the Vera Rubin detects something
    technological passing through the solar system. To use an obscure quote
    from 3001 (another Clarke work i’m supposed to dismiss apparently but
    can’t help enjoying), Hope I live to see it!

    Reply
    Tom Hannen on December 7, 2023 at 8:15
    Very interesting as always Paul. Tiny typo (can’t DM otherwise I would
    have) “one richness to many”

    Reply
    Paul Gilster on December 7, 2023 at 12:58
    Thanks, Tom! Now fixed.

    Reply
    tesh on December 7, 2023 at 10:50
    Are these objects a way to the expanse?

    If an object fits the desired parameters (size vs trajectory vs make up)
    could we plant a colony to “go”???

    Reply
    Alex Tolley on December 7, 2023 at 17:27
    Yes : theoretically, in the future.

    Currently, no. We don’t have the technology to send a colonization ship
    to the required velocity – say 100 km/s. We do not have the ECLSS needed
    for long-term survival. We don’t have the fusion energy technology to
    make use of the hydrogen isotopes. If hoping to reach another star
    system, then it would be trapping a population in deep space with no
    hope of escape. It would make even St. Helena in the Atlantic (where
    Napoleon was finally exiled) seem like a luxury, and possibly Devil’s
    Island a preferable location to live.

    If you just want to occupy a suitable resource body in the solar system,
    Ceres would be a good bet, and if your colony wanted more privacy, a
    Kuiper Belt or even Oort cloud object might fit the bill. All these
    options allow for trade and escape back to the inner system. [Of course,
    the belters in the S A Corey “The Expanse” books did not live great
    lives on Ceres, although life on that future Earth wasn’t great for most
    of the population, too.] However, you still need the ECLSS to work, and
    on Ceres fusion energy might be optional.

    Reply
    henry cordova on December 7, 2023 at 22:42
    Once again, I would like to remind my fellow Centaurs of a convenient
    and frequently updated source of astronomical information of great value
    to students of SETI and related topics: The “Observer’s Handbook” of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada. This handy pocket almanac is
    crammed full of useful astronomical data. Ephemeral tables for solar
    system objects are provided, as well as observing lists, stellar and DSO catalogues, the year’s astronomical events such as occultations,
    eclipses, oppositions, conjunctions, meteor showers, comets, and objects favorably placed for observation, like asteroids.

    Also included are informative articles that are frequently updated. One
    of the many items I consult frequently is the “catalog of nearby stars”, listing every stellar system within 5 parsecs, along with every one of
    the multiple star members, brown dwarfs, and all major exoplanetary
    discoveries up to the time of publication. The list is kept up to date
    and is revised every year. It gives a valuable glimpse at our nearest
    stellar neighbors and is a useful sampler of our corner of the galaxy. Information such as name, coordinates, spectral class, proper motion,
    radial velocity, parallax and so forth are provided for both the nearest
    stars as well as the brightest, and observing lists for the special
    objects, such as binaries and variables..

    This data is all available in the literature, and can be tracked down on
    the internet, but its nice to have it all in one compact volume that
    easily fits in your observing kit. It is invaluable for amateur
    astronomers, but written at a level of technical detail sufficient to
    satisfy any professional. Older copies can be given away to your
    friends, or kept in the bathroom for emergency reading material!

    I logged on to the RASC website last night and ordered the 2024 edition.
    Highly recommended, eh?

    Reply
    Paul Gilster on December 8, 2023 at 5:29
    A solid resource! Thanks, Henry. I plan to order mine today.

    Reply
    Robin Datta on December 8, 2023 at 11:07
    If Starglider could connect to and commandeer the Internet, its unknown capabilities may lead to unforeseen consequences.

    Reply
    Alex Tolley on December 9, 2023 at 12:10
    In that YouTube piece, it almost seems that John Michael Godier hasn’t
    read Charlie Stross’ 2005 novel “Accelerando”.

    “Unintended consequences” are not to be feared, but enjoyed. Our civilization has been built on them. Did those ancient hunter-gatherers
    think of the consequences of agriculture? Apart from Jared Diamond
    suggesting this may have been a mistake, do we want to return to that hunter-gatherer way of life? While civilizations have upended cultures,
    most notably the indigenous cultures of the Americas, do we really
    believe that the accomplishments of technological civilization should be
    given an even greater extreme Thanos treatment in some attempt to
    “correct” this outcome?

    Humans have created their own, pre-technological “AIs” – we call them organizations that are built of hive minds, that create rules for
    thoughts (e.g. religion) and action (corporations, nations). When the
    Soviet Union collapsed, Francis Fukuyama suggested that the era of
    Western liberal democracy had conquered all and it was the “end of history“. [A bit premature, as it turned out.]

    What Godier is implying, is that humanity should now fear a new enemy,
    that of machine intelligence. That is a fear of humans being toppled
    from our perch at the top of the social pyramid. I don’t believe it is necessarily worse than the corporate juggernaut that seeks to increase
    profits at the expense of our planet’s habitability for most humans,
    starting with the populations near the equator and where weather
    patterns will deprive many populations of fresh water. We may find their actions make many places look like what is being done in Gaza.

    It would be an interesting turnaround if AIs become “benevolent
    dictators” ensuring a better world, even if some actions seem as
    repressive as those in “Colossus: The Forbin Project” that prevent human self-destruction.

    Lastly, there is no reason to believe AIs would force technological civilizations to become solipsist (to explain the Fermi Paradox). Far
    more likely it seems to me, that they would attempt to find out what is
    out there, both attempting to communicate with other [AI] civilizations
    both remotely and physically.

    Reply
    henry cordova on December 10, 2023 at 22:19
    AI is painted as some malevolent supermind that will take over human civilization like some sort of mechanized dictatorship. You’ve hit the
    nail squarely. AI is no different in principle from any government,
    church, bureaucracy, religion, etc. AI is only the latest in a string of automated soulless bureaucracies that have changed human life
    periodically since the Paleolithic. Every new technology has altered us irrevocably; language, fire, stone tools, agriculture, urbanization, metallurgy, writing, gunpowder, printing, steam, electricity, internal combustion, electronics, digital computers. AI is different (maybe) only
    in kind, but not in degree.

    My fear is not that AI will “take over”/ My fear is that IT will be
    taken over for purely commercial purposes. I’m old enough to remember
    when television was being introduced, and how it was expected to
    revolutionize education and public information. They used it to sell
    soap and cigarettes. The internet was supposed to usher in a new age of information freedom and enlightened citizenry. We got porn and fake news instead.

    Any new technology has the potential to take us to the stars, IF we
    don’t let the business majors hijack it first.

    As for “unintended consequences”, they’re all well and good when the world is a vast wilderness dotted with a few scattered city-states. But
    have you noticed things are fundamentally different this time? Yes, we
    may yet enjoy a brief, brilliant flash of pure civilized glory. But for
    now, we’re all locked up behind the city walls, the Spartans are
    rampaging through the countryside, a plague has broken out in the Agora,
    a tyrant is marching on the Acropolis, and new world-threatening menaces
    are arising in the West and North..

    Reply
    FRED * on December 8, 2023 at 12:39
    Comment *Hello,
    About a 7th Starglider ladder: I don’t remember if it was Kardhasev who
    said that after a certain level of energy mastery, a highly advanced civilization (type IV or higher) would be all-powerful in the universe.
    It would then be able to travel close to the speed of light, and thus
    find all the materials it needed to manufacture or transmute whatever it wanted, or even better, bend space-time (Alcubiere). It would no longer
    need to travel, and would become a universal “spiritual” civilization.
    We can then imagine anything we like about a civilization that possesses infinite energy and could explore a black “hole”, or break Planck’s wall :)

    I have a radio amateur question: do you know of a website where it is
    possible to listen to the frequencies of radio telescopes that are
    listening to space? I’ve found this one, http://websdr.camras.nl:8901/
    but I’d be more interested in listening to the universe on 1,420.4 MHz,
    the hydrogen line.

    WebDSR is interesting for visualizing how difficult it is to detect a
    signal in the ocean of noise and the multitude of frequencies…just on
    earth. So imagine in the univers !

    F5CEY 73 QRT Fred

    Reply
    Paul Gilster on December 8, 2023 at 20:43
    Maybe one of the readers can weigh in on this, Fred. There must be a
    resource out there somewhere.

    Reply
    fred on December 13, 2023 at 13:31
    I’ve done some research but I haven’t found any possibility of listening
    to the universe via webSDR (including the 21cm line). On the sites of
    radio astronomy observatories like Parkes, you can find some archive
    files, sometimes accessible to non-researchers but not always, but these
    files are huge and in a format that isn’t standard for us. On the other
    hand, there’s plenty of fun radio tinkering to be done. Here are a few
    links:

    https://radiojove.gsfc.nasa.gov/gettingstarted/

    https://breakthroughinitiatives.org/opendatasearch?project=GBT&file_type=all&ra=&ra_range=&decl=&decl_range=&mjd=&mjd_range=&freq=&freq_range=&target=&perPage=&search=Search

    https://lea.hamradio.si/~s53rm/Radio%20Astronomy.htm

    by the way, I was wondering if ET couldn’t communicate in binary on the
    two states of the hydrogen atom :)

    Reply
    henry cordova on December 9, 2023 at 18:18
    The pressure variations of a human voice can be represented by squiggles
    on an oscilloscope screen, but you can stare at those all day long and
    not be able to decipher the content of human speech from them. In fact,
    unless you have prior knowledge of what they are, you will not be able
    to determine any content in them. Some familiarity of the physiologic parameters of human speech and hearing (not to mention a familiarity
    with the language being spoken) is required before the raw data can be translated to meaningful context The oscilloscope trace may allow us to preserve and transmit the original signal precisely, but without the
    additional ‘metadata’ it will make no sense at all. When you consider
    that the original signal will probably be transmitted with some form of formatting to allow redundancy, error correction or to take advantage of engineering requirements and limitations (such as peculiarities of the transmitters or the expected receivers), it is unlikely any information
    will be extracted from the signal, except possibly that it is not of
    natural origin.

    The aliens may be eavesdropping on old episodes of “The Honeymooners”,
    or “I Love Lucy”, but I doubt they’ll be even able to identify them as audio/visual data, much less than that they are artificially stylized representations of the domestic lives of the transmitting species. The
    best sense they’ll probably be able to make of them is that they are not
    of some astrophysical origin.

    An analog signal (say, old style TV) will be made up of alternating
    lines of an image, flickering at 60 Hz (determined by the frequency of alternating current and the ability of the human eye to stop motion)
    with the pixel brightness represented by a signal strength, as opposed
    to a binary number. There is no way some alien will be able to
    unscramble that mess and make sense of it. They may be able to interpret
    its artificial origin by noting no natural process creates that signal,
    but that’s about it.

    Reply
    Alex Tolley on December 9, 2023 at 21:11
    The pressure variations of a human voice can be represented by squiggles
    on an oscilloscope screen, but you can stare at those all day long and
    not be able to decipher the content of human speech from them.

    And it was precisely the recognition of those squiggles that was an
    important clue in this week’s episode of Dr. Who “The Giggle”. ;-)

    Reply
    Benjamin R Stockton on December 10, 2023 at 14:16
    Slow Boat to Centauri
    Being older than most of you, I read many of the iconic Science Fiction
    works of the masters beginning in 1955 (when I cut my foot and had to
    take a week off school). As much as I love this stuff, our modern
    imaginations are too small. I won’t recant what you all know, I’ll jump right to my point. Humans won’t travel interstellar unless we use a generational ship. Going anywhere just takes too long. If you get real,
    there won’t be any “suspended animation”, there aren’t any “wormholes”,
    there is no “hyperspace”, and going into a black hole will both crush
    you and not let you out. Because of everything you know already, the
    distances, the radiation, the limits of power/mass ratios, the limited
    life spans, and all the rest, prevent practical “ships” as we conceive
    them from being built.

    What we need is nothing less than a plantetoid. We need enough mass to
    provide functional gravity (humans wither without gravity). We need
    large amounts of water which functions both as radiation shield and
    fuel. We need a large population in order to avoid deterioration of our genomes, and we need to be able to grow many generations of large crops
    to feed them. We also need animal protein in order to thrive. In order
    to travel far, we need to be able to write books, school children, make
    movies, create songs and stories, and go out to a bar in the evenings.
    In short, we need a cultural life to sustain us along the way.

    In order to travel to another solar system, we essentially need a small
    planet and a lot of patience. Once you have all that capability pulled together, why go anywhere? Just take up an orbit around our current
    star. Within a few tens of cycles, collecting water and mineral bearing asteroids and comets as we go, perhaps we could sling shot around the
    sun and head off on a 300 year journey.

    I don’t worry about the fuel and the propulsion – those are technical things. Instead, I worry about the human animal and whether we will ever develop the culture that would generate such a project, and I worry
    about whether that same animal can sustain a functional society and
    culture over those long generations.

    Reply
    Robin Datta on December 10, 2023 at 19:16
    BRStockton: Yes indeed – while flesh holds many possibilities for
    evolution, it falls short when stressed in ways to which it was not
    adapted through biological evolution. Hence a provision of the necessary resources to cover those shortcomings would be mandatory. And the
    consequences of the breeding program for humans can only be guessed.

    Reply
    Alex Tolley on December 10, 2023 at 20:38
    Biological humans as crew probably won’t go without technologies we
    don’t know about yet, and may never have. But we don’t need them.

    A robotic ship does not need the life support of a biological crew to
    make the journeys.

    If a future human society wants to seed the stars with human beings,
    then we will send seed ships instead, with machines to nurture human
    life until it is ready to colonize another, suitable world. The morality
    to allow this will be very different from today, but well within what
    has been done historically.

    How small could such ships be? It depends on how much self-assembly is possible. Ships that can acquire resources at a target star system to
    build out the needed equipment to gestate the human eggs/embryos and the machines to take care of the first few generations until the human
    population can take care of itself. This might be quite small, and
    certainly much smaller and more efficient than moving planets.

    No planets are needed to make the journey.

    Reply
    Benjamin R Stockton on December 12, 2023 at 6:58
    Alex,
    I’m all in for robotic exploration! Another weird thing is that, due to communications delays, the sponsoring organization may never know the
    outcome of its “seeding” operation. Sigh..


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