XPost: alt.astronomy, alt.fan.heinlein
Maybe I'm a cynic. How do you plan something when you have
not figured out a material strong enough for the task?
Breakthroughs in new materials are often surprises,
and difficult to schedule.
I think the Space Elevator is a terrific goal.
However I am very happy that Elon Musk has gotten the
price to low earth orbit down to
"SpaceX's Falcon 9, which, at around $1,227 per pound."
from
https://www.businessinsider.com/space-elevator-pros-cons-japan-design-revolutionize-space-travel-2024-5
Space elevators could get us to Mars in record time — and Japan is
planning one for 2050
from
https://www.businessinsider.com/space-elevator-pros-cons-japan-design-revolutionize-space-travel-2024-5
Space elevators could get us to Mars in record time — and Japan is
planning one for 2050
Jenny McGrath Jun 5, 2024, 10:43 AM PDT
A drawing of a concept space elevator hovering above Earth
The Obayashi Corporation's concept drawing for its proposed space
elevator. Courtesy of Obayashi Corporation
A space elevator could make it much cheaper and faster to get goods to
other planets, like Mars.
The Obayashi Corporation based in Japan announced in 2012 plans to begin building one by next year.
Not only would it cost $100 billion, there are huge technological and organizational challenges.
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Bull
Imagine a long tether linking Earth to space that could launch us to
orbit at a fraction of the cost and slingshot us to other worlds at
record speed.
That's the basic idea behind a space elevator.
Instead of taking six to eight months to reach Mars, scientists have
estimated a space elevator could get us there in three to four months or
even as quickly as 40 days.
The concept of space elevators isn't new, but engineering such a
structure would be no easy feat, and many other issues besides
technology stand in the way.
That's why the ambition to seriously build one is fairly recent.
The Japan-based company Obayashi Corporation thinks it has the expertise.
Japan aims to build a space elevator by 2050
A view of Tokyo Skytree Tower among other buildings
Japan's Skytree Tower is tall, but it's nowhere near as big as a space elevator. REUTERS/Kyodo
Known for constructing the world's tallest tower, the Tokyo Skytree,
Obayashi Corporation announced in 2012 that it would reach even loftier
heights with its own space elevator.
In a report that same year, the company said it would begin construction
on the $100-billion project by 2025 and could start operations as early
as 2050.
We checked in with Yoji Ishikawa, who wrote the report and is part of
the company's future technology creation department, to see how the
project is progressing ahead of 2025.
While Ishikawa said the company likely won't start construction next
year, it is currently "engaged in research and development, rough
design, partnership building, and promotion," he told Business Insider.
Some have doubted such a structure is even possible.
"It's been sort of a kooky idea," said Christian Johnson, who published
a report on space elevators last year in the peer-reviewed Journal of
Science Policy & Governance.
"That said, there are some people who are real scientists who are really
on board with this and really want to make it happen," Johnson said.
A cheaper route to space
Artwork of a space elevator concept with a futuristic vehicle rising
above earth
Space elevators are a concept that involves creating a tether between
Earth orbital space. Mark Garlic/Science Photo Library via Getty Images Launching humans and objects into space on rockets is extremely
expensive. For example, NASA has estimated its four Artemis moon
missions will cost $4.1 billion per launch.
The reason is something called the rocket equation. It takes a lot of
fuel to get to space, but the fuel is heavy, which increases the amount
of fuel you need. "And so you see the kind of vicious cycle there,"
Johnson said.
With a space elevator, you don't need rockets or fuel.
According to some designs, space elevators would shuttle cargo to orbit
on electromagnetic vehicles called climbers. These climbers could be
remotely powered — like through solar power or microwaves — eliminating
the need for on-board fuel.
In his report for the Obayashi Corporation, Ishikawa wrote that this
type of space elevator could help drop the cost of moving goods to space
to $57 per pound. Other estimates for space elevators in general have
put the price at $227 per pound.
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Even SpaceX's Falcon 9, which, at around $1,227 per pound, is one of the cheaper rockets to launch, is still about five times as expensive as the
higher cost estimates for space elevators.
There are other benefits besides cost, too.
There's no danger of a rocket exploding, and the climbers could be zero-emission vehicles, Johnson said. At a relatively leisurely pace of
124 miles per hour, the Obayashi Corporation's climbers would travel
slower than rockets with fewer vibrations, which is good for sensitive equipment.
Ishikawa said the Obayashi Corporation sees a space elevator as a new
kind of public works project that would benefit all of humankind.
There's not enough steel on Earth to make a space elevator
A concept drawing of a space elevator
Vehicles known as climbers would transport goods an people between
planets. Victor Habbick Visions/Science Photo Library/Getty Images
Right now, one of the biggest obstacles to building a space elevator is
what to make the tether or tube from.
To withstand the tremendous tension it would be under, the tube would
have to be very thick if it were made out of typical materials, like
steel. However, "if you try to build it out of steel, you would need
more steel than exists on Earth," Johnson said.
Ishikawa's report suggested Obayashi Corporation might use carbon
nanotubes. A nanotube is a rolled-up layer of graphite, the material
that's used in pencils.
It's much lighter and is less likely to break under tension compared to
steel, so the space elevator could be much smaller, Johnson said. But
there's a catch.
While nanotubes are very strong, they're also tiny, a billionth of a
meter in diameter. And researchers haven't made them very lengthy. The
longest is only about 2 feet.
To be properly balanced while still reaching geosynchronous orbit —
where objects stay in sync with Earth's rotation — the tether would need
to be at least 22,000 miles long, per Ishikawa's report.
"So we're not there," Johnson said of the nanotube length. "But that
doesn't mean it's impossible."
Instead, researchers might need to develop an entirely new material,
Ishikawa said.
Other obstacles
A circular object floats in a body of water offshore
The Obayashi Corporation's space elevator would attach to an Earth Port, located offshore. Courtesy of the Obayashi Corporation
Whatever the material turns out to be, there are still other problems.
For instance, a space elevator's tether would be under such incredible
tension that it would be prone to snapping, Johnson said. A lightning
strike could vaporize it. There's also other weather to consider like tornadoes, monsoons, and hurricanes.
Locating the tether base at the equator would lessen the likelihood of hurricanes, but it would still need to be in the open ocean to make it
more difficult for terrorists to target, Johnson said.
It would also take a lot of trips to make up for that giant price tag
for construction.
That's only scratching the surface of the challenges. And they can't all
be solved by one company, Ishikawa said. "We need partnerships," he
said. "We need different industries."
"Of course," Ishikawa said, "raising funds is very essential."
That's a lot of obstacles to overcome to start construction in time for operation by 2050, especially since Ishikawa estimated it would take 25
years to build. He noted that the 2050 estimate always came with caveats
about the technology progressing. "It's not our goal or promise," he
said, but the company is still aiming for that date.
"I think that those time estimates are optimistic," Johnson said, "even assuming there was a breakthrough tomorrow."
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