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from
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5887715

US plans 'hellscape' of drones if China invades Taiwan
'Unmanned hellscape' involves deploying thousands of unmanned
submarines, surface vessels, aerial drones in Taiwan Strait

 Jun. 11, 2024 16:59

Illustration of Darpa's "Gremlins" program. (Darpa illustration)
Illustration of Darpa's "Gremlins" program. (Darpa illustration)

Keoni Everington
Keoni Everington
Taiwan News, Staff Writer

1343
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Washington Post columnist revealed the U.S.
military plans to create a "hellscape" to thwart a Chinese invasion of
Taiwan, using unmanned weapons to buy time.

In an op-ed on Monday (June 10), Josh Rogin cited the top American
commander in the Pacific as saying the key for the U.S. and regional
partners to ensure that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan fails lies in
turning the Taiwan Strait into an "unmanned hellscape" before China can
cross it. This would buy time for Taiwanese, American, and partner forces.

In his article "The U.S. military plans a ‘Hellscape’ to deter China
from attacking Taiwan," Rogin argued that time is of the essence and
that the U.S. must quickly turn these plans into feasible strategies.

Rogin cited Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific
Command, who told him after attending the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore that China would prefer a swift and intense war
to seize Taiwan before the world could react. Rogin said China aims to
avoid the protracted conflict that Russia faced in its invasion of Ukraine.

Paparo indicated that the U.S.'s "hellscape" strategy is crucial to
foiling China's invasion plans. This involves deploying thousands of
unmanned submarines, surface vessels, and aerial drones in the Taiwan
Strait as soon as China's invasion fleet begins to cross, thereby buying
time for a full-scale counterattack by Taiwanese, American, and partner
forces.

The author said that in March, the U.S. Department of Defense announced
a US$1 billion "Replicator" program to mass produce drones and unmanned
surface vessels for this mission. Paparo shared that the U.S. has
learned from Ukraine's innovative use of drone technology in its war
with Russia.

However, Rogin wrote the delivery timeline for these systems is unclear. According to most U.S. think tank simulations of a Taiwan Strait
conflict, if these unmanned weapon systems are not ready by the time of
a Chinese invasion, it could increase the risk of a prolonged war,
causing significant losses to U.S. naval and air forces and potentially expanding the conflict to include allies such as Japan, South Korea, and
the Philippines.

Rogin also cautioned that even if the U.S. can promptly deploy
autonomous systems in the Taiwan Strait, unmanned weapon systems alone
cannot counter China's extensive military expansion in the region. He
warned that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly boosting its
nuclear, naval, air, cyber, intelligence, and electronic warfare
capabilities.

He estimated that the PLA's military budget might be three times the
publicly disclosed amount, potentially reaching US$700 billion annually.

The journalist mentioned additional issues, including the U.S.
military's lack of a reliable method to counter China's hypersonic
cruise missiles, the vulnerability of U.S. space assets to Chinese
attacks, severe delays in U.S. arms deliveries to Taiwan, and the Biden administration's slow response to Japan's call to set up a new joint
task force to deal with conflicts in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

He also warned of the possibility of Beijing blockading Taiwan, and
using economic coercion, political interference, and disinformation to
push the Taiwanese into accepting annexation.

Paparo observed that Western attempts over the past 40 years to persuade
China to adopt political freedoms have failed, leading Asia into a more dangerous era.

Rogin concluded that while no one wants to see an arms race in Asia, if
China insists on one, “the U.S. and its partners cannot afford to lose
it.” If the U.S. does not take more decisive action, Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) “may soon conclude Taiwan is his for the taking," warned Rogin.

# unmanned submarines
# unmanned aerial vehicles
# asymmetrical warfare
# unmanned surface vessel
# defending Taiwan
# Chinese invasion of Taiwan
# war with China
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