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(In my opinion, "worry ?" No, but keep aware and as always
our space assests should be building up plans and materials.
Also, IMHO, go to the citation to see the graphics.

from https://www.planetary.org/articles/should-you-be-worried-about-asteroid-2024-yr4

Kate Howells • Jan 30, 2025

Should you be worried about Asteroid 2024 YR4?
A recently discovered near-Earth asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, is making
headlines because of the slim possibility that it could impact Earth on
Dec. 22, 2032. Early observations suggest that it has about a 1% chance
of colliding with our planet. So why all the fuss?

2024 YR4 is garnering so much attention because of more than 37,000
near-Earth asteroids already discovered, it is the only one with more
than a 1 in 1,000 chance of impact. “It is rare to have an asteroid with
a non-zero probability of hitting Earth,” said Heidi Hammel, Vice
President for Science at the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy and Vice President of the The Planetary Society’s board of directors.

To put it into context, 2024 YR4 has a Torino scale rating of as high as
3. The Torino Impact Hazard Scale ranges from 0 (no chance of impact) to
10 (certain impact likely to cause planetwide devastation). Ratings of 1
are fairly common among newly discovered asteroids, but follow-up
observations have always reduced that rating to 0. Asteroid 2024 YR4’s
rating of 3 is the second-highest an asteroid has ever reached. The only asteroid ranked higher was Apophis, discovered in 2004 and rated 4, but subsequently downgraded to 1 and then 0. We now know with certainty that Apophis will only pass close to Earth in 2029.

Right now, ESA estimates that 2024 YR4’s diameter is in the range of
40-100 meters (around 130-330 feet). If it did collide with Earth, an
impactor of that size could cause an explosion in the atmosphere or even
an impact crater, either of which could cause serious, even devastating,
damage on the ground.

Asteroid danger by the numbers
Asteroid danger by the numbers The risk, characteristics, and rarity of
various kinds of asteroid impacts.Image: NASA
All of this means that 2024 YR4 merits significant attention from
astronomers and public officials, which it’s getting.

“At this point,” said Hammel, “astronomers have measured the object’s orbit, and further observations will refine that orbit to give us a more precise understanding of its potential danger. We have a rough estimate
of its size based on its brightness, and from variations in the
brightness, we can infer that it has an elongated shape. Measurements at visible wavelengths suggest it may be a stony asteroid (S type).”

Hammel and her colleagues around the world will continue using space and ground-based telescopes to track the asteroid and refine predictions of
its trajectory for as long as they can detect it. Astronomers are also
combing through past data from periods when it may have been observable.

“Both NASA and ESA have been involved in coordinated work, and there is
also an International Asteroid Warning Network that facilitates shared information,” said Hammel.

Predicted orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4
Predicted orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 This diagram shows the predicted
orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4. The view is slightly angled to show the
asteroid's orbital inclination with respect to the plane of Earth's
orbit. The positions of the four inner planets and Jupiter (as of Jan.
28, 2025) are shown.Image: NASA/JPL
As more observations are obtained over longer periods of time, the
uncertainty of where the asteroid will be when it comes near Earth in
2032 will get smaller. Odds are that the smaller uncertainty will cause
the probability of impact to go to zero.

“Note that often, counterintuitively, the odds of impact go up before
they drop to zero,” said Planetary Society Chief Scientist Bruce Betts. “This happened for Apophis and could happen for 2024 YR4. As more observations come in, the uncertainty in the area the asteroid will pass through decreases. But while that area still includes Earth, less
uncertainty means the probability of impact increases.” This is usually temporary, as further observations shrink that area even more,
eventually showing with high certainty that the asteroid will miss our
planet. When this happens, the impact probability drops to zero.

Although 2024 YR4’s potential for collision with Earth is serious and
demands careful and extensive observation, it doesn’t mean anyone should panic.

“Your danger is far higher to have a car crash,” said Hammel, “so wear your seat belt!”

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Read more: Asteroids, Near-Earth asteroids, Planetary defense, Small
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Kate Howells
Kate Howells
Public Education Specialist for The Planetary Society
Read more articles by Kate Howells

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