• Double 5's to play

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 31 10:09:13 2021
    XGID=-aaB--D-B---bE--Abbe-A--b-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O X O |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jan 2 10:51:05 2022
    XGID=-aaB--D-B---bE--Abbe-A--b-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O X O |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    This is a great roll that allows X to vault from being roughly equal
    to being a strong favorite. Should he go on the offensive and PoH?
    According to XG, no; he doesn't have quite enough ammunition for a
    blitz. But see the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ 21/11 16/11 13/8 eq:+0.573
    Player: 65.12% (G:12.11% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 34.88% (G:6.28% B:0.11%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.562..+0.584) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/16 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.487 (-0.086)
    Player: 61.24% (G:17.71% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 38.76% (G:9.12% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.476..+0.498) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-aaB--E-B---bD--Abbe-A--b-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O X O |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X | | X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    1. Rollout¹ 21/16 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.729
    Player: 67.07% (G:21.47% B:0.64%)
    Opponent: 32.93% (G:7.37% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.719..+0.740) - [99.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/11 16/11 13/8 eq:+0.706 (-0.024)
    Player: 68.48% (G:11.40% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 31.52% (G:5.05% B:0.12%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.693..+0.718) - [0.2%]

    3. Rollout¹ 16/11 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.656 (-0.073)
    Player: 65.26% (G:23.14% B:0.73%)
    Opponent: 34.74% (G:9.63% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.644..+0.669) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)