• Doublets are usually lucky

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 16 08:27:40 2022
    XGID=-a-BB-B-Ba--dE---bbe--B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 18 21:23:05 2022
    XGID=-a-BB-B-Ba--dE---bbe--B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    Double 5's early in the game can sometimes be awkward, if the back
    checkers can't move. Here, X has to decide whether to switch points,
    which is a rather committal blitzing play in a position where X's
    checkers are not ideally placed for a blitz. O's outfield blot gives
    X extra incentive to hit. XG switches points, but see also the
    variant position below.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.253
    Player: 54.15% (G:20.92% B:0.31%)
    Opponent: 45.85% (G:8.97% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.238..+0.269) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 13/3 eq:+0.180 (-0.073)
    Player: 53.09% (G:19.08% B:0.57%)
    Opponent: 46.91% (G:9.63% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.167..+0.194) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/3 6/1*(2) eq:+0.165 (-0.088)
    Player: 52.44% (G:19.79% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 47.56% (G:9.60% B:0.44%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.150..+0.180) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.147 (-0.106)
    Player: 51.97% (G:19.33% B:0.56%)
    Opponent: 48.03% (G:9.96% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.134..+0.161) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-BB-B-B---eE---bbe--B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 13/3 eq:+0.154
    Player: 52.70% (G:17.15% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 47.30% (G:9.22% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.142..+0.167) - [84.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.145 (-0.010)
    Player: 52.31% (G:17.48% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 47.69% (G:9.07% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.131..+0.158) - [15.2%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)