-
PoH and then...?
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon May 2 09:09:31 2022
XGID=--ab-ED-C-BAa-----bbbbc---:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to
Tim Chow on Mon May 2 14:24:55 2022
On Monday, May 2, 2022 at 2:09:34 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=--ab-ED-C-BAa-----bbbbc---:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
Sorry but my only candidate play is 6/2*(2) 5/1(2).
Why is this play less tasty than those egregious Hershey
bars they sell (or used to) in the US?
Paul
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed May 4 10:04:43 2022
XGID=--ab-ED-C-BAa-----bbbbc---:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
There's no reason not to PoH, but then do you play 8/4(2), 5/1(2),
or 10/6(2)? Making the 4pt clearly has the strongest upside, since
leaving a gap on the 4pt is just asking for trouble later, but is
it worth giving O four hitting rolls from the bar? Definitely,
says XG. If we strengthen O's already formidable offensive position
(see variant below) then XG says the decision is much closer, but
it still favors 8/4(2).
1. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.593
Player: 76.64% (G:17.65% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 23.36% (G:3.12% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.587..+0.600) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/2*(2) 5/1(2) eq:+0.501 (-0.092)
Player: 73.35% (G:14.58% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 26.65% (G:2.73% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.495..+0.507) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 10/2*(2) eq:+0.485 (-0.109)
Player: 73.70% (G:11.54% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 26.30% (G:2.47% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.479..+0.491) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--ab-ED-C-BA------bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
1. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.509
Player: 74.95% (G:11.31% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 25.05% (G:4.97% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.503..+0.514) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 10/2*(2) eq:+0.490 (-0.018)
Player: 74.84% (G:6.97% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 25.16% (G:2.00% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.485..+0.496) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 6/2*(2) 5/1(2) eq:+0.474 (-0.034)
Player: 73.18% (G:9.86% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 26.82% (G:2.63% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.469..+0.479) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Thu Oct 13 09:11:47 2022
XGID=-a--aBCBB--AbD---a-db-bbA-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Oct 15 11:22:03 2022
XGID=-a--aBCBB--AbD---a-db-bbA-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44
After 8/4*(2), the blitzing play is of course 7/3(2). This play does
win more gammons and might be the gammon go play, but the downside is
that it is committal---it sacrifices some of X's priming vig, while
13/9(2) keeps both game plans open. Pursuing the blitz aggressively
likely means leaving blots and shots in the next few turns, which is
risky in light of O's strong board.
1. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4*(2) eq:+0.845
Player: 71.39% (G:23.20% B:1.44%)
Opponent: 28.61% (G:10.02% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.833..+0.858) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/4*(2) 7/3(2) eq:+0.699 (-0.146)
Player: 67.55% (G:26.26% B:1.51%)
Opponent: 32.45% (G:12.09% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.688..+0.711) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Sep 30 10:16:44 2023
XGID=---aCBB-BA--bB-bAbbcc-B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Stick Rice@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Sun Oct 1 09:36:01 2023
On Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 10:16:47 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=---aCBB-BA--bB-bAbbcc-B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
---
Tim Chow
The rest seems clear as we may want to/need to continue the attack and to do this diversifying our numbers (not duping sixes specifically) there is only one play.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to
Stick Rice on Sun Oct 1 09:56:11 2023
On Sunday, October 1, 2023 at 12:36:03 PM UTC-4, Stick Rice wrote:
On Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 10:16:47 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=---aCBB-BA--bB-bAbbcc-B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
---
Tim Chow
The rest seems clear as we may want to/need to continue the attack and to do this diversifying our numbers (not duping sixes specifically) there is only one play.
Stick
I liked peppering the outfield, but duplicating 6's is the problem.
Bob
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
ah...Clem@21:1/5 to
Timothy Chow on Sun Oct 1 17:02:58 2023
On 9/30/2023 10:16 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=---aCBB-BA--bB-bAbbcc-B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O X | | | | O O | | | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
Re-making the eight point after the POH has it's merits, but with two
runners to spring so does keeping the midpoint. I'll go for 16/6 since re-making the eight dupes sixes. Not sure.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
-
From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Oct 3 09:38:14 2023
XGID=---aCBB-BA--bB-bAbbcc-B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
We want more builders in the zone. 13/8(2) is a candidate, but 16/6
reduces O's return shots, and a builder on the 6pt is a bit more
effective than a builder on the 8pt. Duplicated sixes play some role,
but 16/6 would be XG's clear choice even without duplicates sixes
(see Variant 2).
1. Rollout¹ 16/6 8/3*(2) eq:+0.334
Player: 55.27% (G:25.84% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 44.73% (G:9.35% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.320..+0.347) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 16/11 13/3* 8/3 eq:+0.227 (-0.106)
Player: 52.90% (G:23.71% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 47.10% (G:10.39% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.214..+0.240) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/3*(2) eq:+0.223 (-0.111)
Player: 52.82% (G:23.50% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 47.18% (G:10.04% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.209..+0.237) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---------
Variant 1
---------
XGID=---aCBB-BA--bBAb-bbcc-B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
1. Rollout¹ 13/3*(2) eq:+0.212
Player: 52.49% (G:23.61% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 47.51% (G:9.84% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.204..+0.219) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 14/4 8/3*(2) eq:+0.186 (-0.026)
Player: 51.99% (G:22.72% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 48.01% (G:9.76% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.179..+0.193) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/3* 8/3(2) eq:+0.176 (-0.036)
Player: 51.36% (G:23.66% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 48.64% (G:10.71% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.169..+0.183) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/3* 8/3 eq:+0.165 (-0.047)
Player: 51.12% (G:22.90% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 48.88% (G:9.92% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.158..+0.172) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---------
Variant 2
---------
XGID=---aCBB-BA--bB-bAbbcc--B--:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
1. Rollout¹ 16/6 8/3*(2) eq:-0.086
Player: 44.49% (G:20.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 55.51% (G:12.53% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.102..-0.070) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 16/11 13/3* 8/3 eq:-0.159 (-0.072)
Player: 42.80% (G:19.57% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 57.20% (G:14.33% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.174..-0.143) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/3*(2) eq:-0.184 (-0.098)
Player: 42.22% (G:18.56% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 57.78% (G:13.56% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.198..-0.169) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 16/11 9/4 8/3*(2) eq:-0.195 (-0.108)
Player: 42.30% (G:18.74% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 57.70% (G:13.25% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.209..-0.180) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)