Why do I think the answers will all be the same?
Well, there's quite a high probability that Tim is the only answerer,
which would make my prediction true. And it would also be vacuously
true for zero answerers.
I think it's a tricky position where opinions are likely to differ.
But if only one person answers, then that doesn't leave much room
for controversy. "I agree. I disagree with what I said yesterday
and am changing my position today...."

Paul

XGID=-a---CCBBC--da---babbb---B:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

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On 10/6/2021 6:36 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=-a---CCBBC--da---babbb---B:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I'd evaluate this as being primarily a priming position,
and on that basis, I think that O's five-prime, with X
not at the edge, gives him a take. It does worry me that
O is disconnected and that X will win more gammons than O
does, but I would still evaluate this as D/T.

---
Tim Chow

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On Friday, October 8, 2021 at 3:24:34 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/6/2021 6:36 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=-a---CCBBC--da---babbb---B:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I'd evaluate this as being primarily a priming position,
and on that basis, I think that O's five-prime, with X
not at the edge, gives him a take. It does worry me that
O is disconnected and that X will win more gammons than O
does, but I would still evaluate this as D/T.

Actually a marginal pass but I think XG's analysis, before rolling out,
gave a take.
I took but wasn't at all sure. It's hard to pass when you've got a 5 point prime
with your opponent away from the edge. It can take an age to leap those.

I'm not sure that any human can reliably distinguish marginal passes and marginal takes
in this position so anyone who recognises that the action is unclear deserves a baked potato.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.88% (G:22.11% B:0.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.12% (G:5.84% B:0.32%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.00% (G:22.74% B:0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.00% (G:5.88% B:0.30%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.604, Double=+1.227

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.905 (-0.095)
Double/Take: +1.016 (+0.016)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.895..+0.916)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.999..+1.034)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 96.4%

Duration: 34 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Paul

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I agree

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