On Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 4:22:18 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=--BCBCC----A---------bAac-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 13 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 22
Stay back? Yes.
But the reason isn't really "for a shot".
Staying back often forces our opponent(s) to waste a roll
by playing two checkers from the four point, instead of bearing two off. Furthermore, besides preserving winning chances, the stay-back plays don't sacrifice very many pips. If we play 11/5, then that is no more deep than we would
expect so I don't think 11/5 wastes anything. And then if we cover the ace, we are also saving gammons in some variations. So staying back actually wastes less than two
pips and potentially costs the opponent a whole roll.
Covering the ace is important. A confident 11/5 3/1 for me.
I wonder whether Tim will say that he ran because he saw the game winning chances as low,
but neglected my point about wasting the opponent's next roll, and that he got dinged severely for it.
Personally speaking, if I'm feeling a bit bad about something, then drinking Diet sodas makes me feel good
and I don't think it makes me gain weight either. I know there's a theory that we gain weight through drinking
Diet sodas because it makes you hungrier but I don't see that effect on me. I remain just as overweight as
always, no matter how many Diet sodas I drink.
And if you don't like Diet soda, then Ramsey theory is more entertaining.
Paul
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