On Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 11:00:34 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
XGID=-aa-BCD-----cD---b-db-b-AA:0:0:1:31:0:1:0:7:10
Score is X:0 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 142 X-O: 0-1/7
Cube: 1
X to play 31
I posted this position not because I expected many to consider it a challenge (present poster excluded), but because it's a nice illustration, I believe, of the power of "the rack" (Robertie), consisting of made 4,5,6 points. See the variant for equities
with made 3,5,6 points. The hit still comes out on top, but others come fairly close.
I played 13/10 with the three, thinking X's infield was poorly distributed after the hit.
Bob
XGID=-aa-BCD-----cD---b-db-b-AA:0:0:1:31:0:1:0:7:10
Score is X:0 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X O O O | | O X |
| O O O | | O X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | O |
| X X X | | O |
| O O X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 142 X-O: 0-1/7
Cube: 1
X to play 31
1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 5/2* eq:-0.088
Player: 47.12% (G:18.64% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 52.88% (G:20.22% B:1.98%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.106..-0.070) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/10 eq:-0.227 (-0.138)
Player: 44.11% (G:16.02% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 55.89% (G:19.82% B:1.53%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.243..-0.210) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 eq:-0.246 (-0.157)
Player: 44.51% (G:15.59% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 55.49% (G:22.43% B:0.91%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.260..-0.231) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
VARIANT
---------------------------------------------------------------------- XGID=-aaB-CD-----cD---b-db-b-AA:0:0:1:31:0:1:0:7:10
Score is X:0 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X O O O | | O X |
| O O O | | O X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | O |
| X X X | | O |
| O O X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 142 X-O: 0-1/7
Cube: 1
X to play 31
1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 5/2* eq:-0.296
Player: 42.90% (G:15.87% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 57.10% (G:21.80% B:2.03%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.310..-0.281) - [97.1%]
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/10 eq:-0.317 (-0.021)
Player: 42.29% (G:14.44% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 57.71% (G:20.22% B:1.52%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.333..-0.301) - [2.8%]
3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 eq:-0.329 (-0.033)
Player: 43.03% (G:14.48% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 56.97% (G:24.06% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.343..-0.315) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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