XGID=aB-BBBB----AbB-Aab-cbb-bA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aB-BBBB----AbB-Aab-cbb-bA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O has a decent offensive structure of her own, which gives her
reasonable winning chances, but according to XG, this is a big
pass. However, see the variant below, where I have shifted O's
checkers from her 2pt to her 3pt.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 70.79% (G:34.21% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.21% (G:7.16% B:0.31%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.53% (G:34.70% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.47% (G:7.75% B:0.37%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.861 (-0.139)
Redouble/Take: +1.204 (+0.204)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.858..+0.864)
Confidence Double: ± 0.007 (+1.198..+1.211)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aB-BBBB----AbB-Aab-cbbb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 66.76% (G:28.17% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.24% (G:7.09% B:0.31%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.19% (G:27.80% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.81% (G:7.41% B:0.38%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.805 (-0.114)
Redouble/Take: +0.918
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.082)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.799..+0.811)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.903..+0.934)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)